Happy Thursday, Ball-Knowers!

Last night had a little bit of everything in WNBA world. The New York Liberty got Leonie Fiebich back and immediately looked like an improved defensive unit. Former Liberty forward Nyara Sabally had a career night in Toronto as the Tempo beat the Chicago Sky in a track meet. The Minnesota Lynx got the better of the Atlanta Dream in a top-of-the-standings clash while the Portland Fire and Washington Mystics won on the backs of solid second quarters.

Tonight, we have some real eye-catchers on Amazon Prime. A’ja Wilson and the Las Vegas Aces head to Texas to play a surging Dallas Wings while the Golden State Valkyries get another crack at the Indiana Fever after losing in Gainbridge Fieldhouse on Friday.

With all that in mind, let’s dive into it all. The newsletter is stacked today and that’s just how we like it.

In Case You Missed It…

In a new edition of Scoutside, Rashard Hall breaks down the misconception of South Carolina guards in the WNBA.

What People Get Wrong About South Carolina Guards

Rashard Hall breaks down the misconception of South Carolina guards in this edition of Scoutside.

Tyler unveiled his first power rankings on YouTube yesterday…

And recapped most of Wednesday night’s action here…

At What Point Do We Decide Minnesota Is For Real?

The WNBA is a 44 game season so by that logic, we are roughly 1/6 of the way through the year. The Minnesota Lynx defeated the top team in the standings, the Atlanta Dream, last night in pretty convincing wire-to-wire fashion. Natasha Howard (22 pts, 8 rebounds, 11/16 FG) continues her red hot start to the year in place of the injured Napheesa Collier while the Lynx’s three-guard lineup has become tough for just about every team to contain.

While Minnesota has yet to see the Las Vegas Aces, New York Liberty or the other perceived ‘top teams in the league’, they’ve managed to beat Chicago, Atlanta, Phoenix and Dallas, who are all considered likely playoff participants. So at what point do we decide that the data set is enough to just call the Lynx flat out good? Will it come when Teaira McCowan, who just signed with the team today, has some kind of breakout year under Cheryl Reeve? Will it be when Olivia Miles breaks or ties even more rookie records? Or will it not sink in fully until Collier returns to the lineup and the casual fan has a reason to tune into their games?

In a lot of ways, I feel as though we believed Minnesota would be something akin to a really fun league pass team but one that lost enough frontcourt depth that they’d have a hard time replicating their past success. Maybe that wasn’t giving enough credit to Courtney Williams and Kayla McBride, as well as discounting Reeve’s ability to turn role players into something greater. Keep in mind, Alanna Smith was nearly out of the WNBA before she lit it up with the Lynx the last couple of years.

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With each passing game, Collier’s return inches closer and closer. If Miles continues to play this way, and there’s no reason to believe she won’t considering she had another great night against a top four defensive unit in Atlanta, I don’t see how this slows down anytime soon. Some of that is Cheryl Reeve playing the role of Heisenberg and once again finding a way to wriggle out of a jam. But a lot of this is the system Minnesota runs and how much everyone seems to be buying into it.

Think of it this way: Williams, McBride and Miles are all players that like to have the ball in their hands. And yet, here they are, making it work by sharing the ball and allowing Howard to play her part too. It’s early, but eventually there’s enough data to start crafting some takes in good faith. I may be calling a shot a bit early here, but it really doesn’t feel like the Minnesota Lynx are gonna fall off the map.

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Phoenix is Now On A Four Game Losing Streak. Is There Enough Firepower To Turn It Around?

Much like Minnesota, the question surrounding the Phoenix Mercury was if they’d be able to replicate their Finals form of 2025 with a substantially different set of rotational players. Losing Satou Sabally hurt on the offensive end but the reality is that eight games into the year, it’s the Mercury defense that has been nothing short of a mess.

Gone is the pressure from last season in which Phoenix would make their hay on picking up opponents up the floor and forcing turnovers before the ball even made to the front court. Some of that comes down to the absence of key guard Monique Akoa Makani, who just returned to the lineup on Wednesday night. But the real issue plaguing the team so far is the three point shooting slump DeWanna Bonner and Kahleah Copper are currently going through. So far this season, the two are a combined 17% from beyond the arc. And that’s with both shooting a combined 10 threes per game on average. It’s not a winning formula in any way, even with Jovana Nogic continuing to hit deep shots at a blistering 52.3% pace.

Those two pieces — poor three point shooting and a propensity to allow blow-by drives (there’s a good deep dive on these numbers in our Good Reads section today) — are the difference between a Mercury team that can look like a playoff contender again and one that is lining up to be the worst Alyssa Thomas-led team in over a half a decade.

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The Long-Form CBA is out. Here are the numbers that jump out to me…

ESPN and a few other outlets got their hands on the long form WNBA collective bargaining agreement this morning. We’re also in the process of obtaining a copy and once we do we’ll do a line-by-line readthrough on YouTube and over here on the newsletter for you. But here’s a couple interesting facts, figures and numbers that stood out to me…

The revenue sharing is tied to a new term called ‘Shared Basketball Revenue’ which is defined, according to ESPN, as the sum of league and team revenues from the year prior. Interestingly, I’m curious if that also includes revenues from any ventures associated with the team or the league, as it is in the NBA’s ‘Basketball Related Income’ figure.
It’s pretty clear that the trade off for the player’s association getting just about everything they wanted up front was a longer term of the CBA itself. That bares itself out in how the salary cap revenue sharing is moderated. It can’t increase or decrease by more than 10% or by more than 13% in 2027. If owners were arguing over potential instability over the term of the agreement, that feels like the compromise in order to get to the 20% SBR figure for the cap.
Free Agency is also slated to start two weeks later in the coming years. I still don’t love this because ultimately the league appears to be afraid of getting too deep into the NFL/NCAA Football/Start of NBA schedule and eventually you’re going to have to push the calendar back if you want more games or time to dominate the annual news cycle.
The impact of Tina Charles is also on full display in the veteran recognition payment. Any player who retired prior to 2026 and won and MVP will get a $100,000 payment regardless of years of service. Then any player with 12-plus years of service are eligible for that payment as well. It’s a really cool thing that the PA put in to make sure that those who built the league still get to reap some kind of benefit.

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The Ball-Knower’s Watch Guide: May 28th

Las Vegas Aces (4-2) vs. Dallas Wings (4-3): 8:00 PM ET, Prime

Can Dallas finally get a solid performance out of Alanna Smith? That’s the question I’m asking going into tonight’s game against the Aces because we’ve seen a movie like this before. A’ja Wilson vs. A front court that struggles defensively? I believe the kids call that food. Wings head coach Jose Fernandez gets a chance to flash his tactical acumen here. Past that, the guard battles are going to be excellent. Chelsea Gray, Jackie Young (who hasn’t played that great so far but she’s still a star), Chennedy Carter and more against Paige Bueckers, Arike Ogunbowale, Azzi Fudd and the whole crew? Yeah, sign me up for that.

Indiana Fever (4-2) vs. Golden State Valkyries (4-2): 10:00 PM ET, Prime

It simply wouldn’t be an Indiana Fever early regular season without some kind of think piece, would it? After Caitlin Clark and Tiffany Hayes exchanged pleasantries last week, the internet naturally ran with the same type of discourse that infected so much of the Fever guard’s rookie year. I’m not here to draw a value judgement about whether or not people care about that sort of thing. I’m just saying, I kind of don’t. What interests me in this matchup is not just if Clark can replicate the shooting performance of her second half vs. Golden State last week but if Aliyah Boston is going to be looking a bit healthier. Both of these teams are really fun in their own right and I’m sure Ballhalla will be rocking.