The 'Ball-Knowers' WNBA Watch Guide: Weekend of July 25 - 28
A'ja Wilson vs. Napheesa Collier? The Phoenix Mercury and New York Liberty in a star studded prime time game? There's a lot to watch in the WNBA this weekend. We walk through it all.
This coming weekend in the WNBA has everything. We’ve got a player matchup of two MVP contenders, some primetime games that pit top four teams against one another and even a revenge game storyline.
As we barrel towards the fall and the WNBA playoffs, things will only heat up as everyone feels the impending stakes of the postseason. Going forward we’re adding a new section to the Watch Guide called ‘If You Can Only Watch A Game A Day’. We know that days where five WNBA matchups are on at once can be a lot. So if you only can devote your time to one game per day, we pick the one you should focus on the most. Hopefully by the start of each work week, you’ll know more ball than you did the week before.
Now, let’s go to the guide…
Friday, July 25
Phoenix Mercury (15-8) vs. New York Liberty (16-6): 7:30 PM ET, ION
Why it’s worth a watch: Probably one of the most interesting matchups of the year so far and a potential WNBA Finals preview. The Liberty are fully healthy for the first time in weeks while Phoenix is officially complete as a roster. I’m fascinated at how this will play out with Jonquel Jones commanding the center of the floor for New York and DeWanna Bonner coming into her own with the Mercury.
Both teams feel like they’re rejuvenated and coming into their own as we settle in for the second half of the regular season. Plus, the star power here is awesome. Alyssa Thomas/Kahleah Copper/Satou Sabally/DeWanna Bonner against Breanna Stewart/Jonquel Jones/Sabrina Ionescu/Natasha Cloud? Yeah man, I’ll watch the hell out of that.
Must Watch Score: 9.5/10
Las Vegas Aces (12-12) vs. Minnesota Lynx (21-4): 7:30 PM ET, ION
Why it’s worth a watch: While maybe not as competitive on paper as we thought it might be at this point in the year, this is still a premier matchup because of each team’s individual star. A’ja Wilson and Napheesa Collier in pitched combat? Probably not gonna find a better matchup than that.
Past that, I’m not sure what to think about this matchup. The Aces jut don’t feel like the same time as they were in 2022 and 2023 and, even with Wilson, appear somewhat stagnant. Jackie Young’s numbers are down while father time is catching up (if not fully caught up) to Chelsea Gray as well as Jewell Loyd. I’ve liked what NaLyssa Smith has given them in terms of giving Wilson a bit of frontcourt breathing room but I’m not all that convinced that’s the issue anymore. But even with all the downside, A’ja is still A’ja. And her vs. Phee is box office every single time.
Must Watch Score: 9/10
Dallas Wings (7-17) vs. Golden State Valkyries (10-12): 10:00 PM ET, ION
Why it’s worth a watch: Don’t look now folks, but the Dallas Wings are 6-6 since their 1-11 start. Whatever was discussed after that debacle of a road game in Las Vegas earlier in June seems to have worked. I’ll write about it a bit more in Five Out this coming week but it may be as simple as trading for Li Yueru, whose acquisition directly coincide with the turn in fortune.
The reason I have this game ranked so high on the Must Watch scale relative to the records of these teams is because this feels like a big narrative game. All year we’ve discussed the Valkyries as a team that is doing everything right. From their roster construction to their coaching hire and stadium environment, the vibes are high in Balhalla. Conversely, few teams have had their vibes feel as bad as the Wings have this year. If they manage a win here, then the sample size may be enough to start wondering if there’s a playoff push in the cards for Dallas.
Must Watch Score: 8/10
Saturday, July 26
Los Angeles Sparks (10-14) vs. New York Liberty (16-6): 7:00 PM ET, NBATV
Why it’s worth a watch: Speaking of playoff pushes, don’t look now because Los Angeles is creeping up the standings. After a forgettable first half of the season, the Sparks have won five of their last six games and are within striking distance of the eight seed. Is that likely to continue against the New York Liberty, who are fully healthy and have Jonquel Jones rested and ready to wreak havoc? I doubt it.
But I’ve really enjoyed this iteration of L.A. It took a second for Lynne Roberts to get her feet under her (and deal with a few growing pains) but it seems as though the Sparks are finally starting to figure out their identity and how to play with one another. The Liberty are a different tier of test than Connecticut and Washington but they’ve hung tough with New York before. Maybe L.A. will do it again.
Must Watch Score: 7/10
Seattle Storm (15-10) vs. Washington Mystics (11-12): 7:30 PM ET, League Pass
Why it’s worth a watch: I have absolutely no idea what to think of the Storm. In fact, things are so inconsistent that I legitimately wonder if Noelle Quinn will enter next year on the hot seat. The simple fact is that this roster, even without Jordan Horston (injured for the year), is way too good to just be 15-10 so far this year. While they’ve had more than their fair share of tough games, there are losses on the schedule that are simply head scratchers.
The Mystics got the better of the Storm just before the All-Star break and, after back-to-back losses to Los Angeles, I’d imagine Sydney Johnson is going to want his team to come out ready to land the first haymaker. The frontcourt battle here is a prime time matchup and that’s what I’m looking forward to. Nneka and Ezi Magbegor vs. Kiki Iriafen and Shakira Austin. Not too shabby for a Saturday night matchup.
Must Watch Score: 7.5/10
Sunday, July 27
Golden State Valkyries (10-12) vs. Connecticut Sun (3-20): 1:00 PM ET, CBSSN
Why it’s worth a watch: The first time these two teams met it was a Golden State blowout and I’m somewhat curious to see if we’re going to get the same type of game now. The tricky thing about Connecticut is you really don’t know what you’re going to get. There are plenty of matchups where the Sun punch above their weight and other games where they’re run out of the gym but that’s what happens when your roster is just not that good relative to their contemporaries.
Golden State is currently on a three game losing streak and star player Kayla Thornton might still be dealing with an unspecified lower leg injury that kept her out of Friday’s game against Dallas. Without her, things obviously look a lot different but I think this matchup has the potential to be competitive if she’s not in the Valkyries lineup.
Must Watch Score: 7/10
Indiana Fever (13-12) vs. Chicago Sky (7-17): 3:00 PM ET, ABC/ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: Let’s see if everyone can be normal about this game. I’m actually kind of curious what would happen if both Angel and Caitlin were out and yet we still got fireworks between the teams. Is it still a week of thinkpieces or is it a piece of evidence that there actually be a true rivalry budding between the two franchises? Obviously the hope is having both stars in this game but I’d be highly surprised if Caitlin makes something of a 180 overnight and is all of a sudden good to play.
Without either of them, there’s still plenty to watch. The Sky still have Kamilla Cardoso, a matchup problem for whoever she’s faced with, taking on fellow South Carolina Gamecock alum Aliyah Boston. Beyond the individual center matchup, I’m interested in this iteration of the Fever and how competitive they can be without Caitlin. We know how much she raises the ceiling but what exactly is the floor? We’ll find out this weekend.
Must Watch Score: 7.5/10
Las Vegas Aces (12-12) vs. Dallas Wings (7-17): 4:00 PM ET, ESPN3
Why it’s worth a watch: The last time these two teams met, all hell broke loose. DiJonai Carrington and Chris Koclanes were openly beefing on the floor of the Michelob Ultra Arena, Curt Miller was yelling orders to his head coach from near press row and then immediately made a trade for Li Yueru. Since then, that move by Miller has appeared to be a stroke of genius that has stabilized the Wings substantially.
How will they look now that they’re getting the Aces at home? Especially considering they should’ve beaten Las Vegas on the road last month? Oh, and by the way, this is a potential NaLyssa Smith revenge game. The Wings traded her just before the All-Star break and now she’s helping A’ja Wilson in the frontcourt. There’s some game within the game stuff here that I think will make for some good old fashioned mess.
Must Watch Score: 8.5/10
Phoenix Mercury (15-8) vs. Washington Mystics (11-12): 6:00 PM ET, League Pass
Why it’s worth a watch: The Mercury and Mystics are two different sides of the same optimistic coin. They represent how a team can rebuild and succeed, one through youth and another through free agency. Washington has faced a lot of character building tests against vet laden teams this year, be it New York or Minnesota and Phoenix is another type of matchup. For Kiki Iriafen, Shakira Austin and Sonia Citron, these are the kinds of games you want to get up for.
I don’t know when the title window opens for the Mystics but it feels like the more wins you stack up against teams with Phoenix’s pedigree, the more seriously we can take you. Conversely, I want to see the Mercury win these types of matchups. The mark of great teams is not getting caught napping by lesser opponents (looking at you, Vegas and Seattle) and if Phoenix is to hold serve with Minnesota, every game counts the rest of the way.
Must Watch Score: 8/10
Atlanta Dream (14-10) vs. Minnesota Lynx (21-4): 7:00 PM ET, NBATV
Why it’s worth a watch: I’m not quite giving up on Atlanta as a dark horse finals team if New York doesn’t manage to replicate their early season form with Jonquel Jones back in the lineup. In many ways, I think the Dream and Mercury are in the same boat. They’re a great and challenging matchup for the top teams in the league (Phoenix with NY and Atlanta with Minnesota) but not the ones in their own conference. It would take a lot for the Mercury to get by the Lynx and the Dream to do the same to the Liberty in a conference finals series. But if they managed to, then they’re primed to potentially steal a finals win.
The last time these two teams met we got a great one. The game went into overtime with the Lynx coming away winners, 96-92. How will the Dream fare on the road? And what do we do with Jordin Canada and Brittney Griner, who have proven to be salad but inconsistent contributors to this Atlanta squad? If they manage to knock off Minnesota here, it’s a big narrative win and a feather in the cap of a Karl Smesko Coach of the Year case.
Must Watch Score: 9/10
Monday, July 28
Connecticut Sun (3-20) vs. Seattle Storm (15-10): 7:00 PM ET, ESPN3
Why it’s worth a watch: This game checks in as a 7/10 on the watch scale because, against all odds, the Sun actually beat the Storm the last time these two teams played one another. It kind of goes back to my frustration with the Storm as an inconsistent group. I don’t expect them to drop a second game to the clear worst team in the league but it’s pretty remarkable that we are even looking at this matchup as a possible Connecticut win because of past matchups.
Of note for the Sun, Saniya Rivers and Leila Lacan might be the starting backcourt going forward. In spite of all the losing, and the organization’s murky future in general, I have a soft spot for Connecticut and what the appear to be building. Some of that is because I’m a huge fan of Rivers and Aneesah Morrow but I also think that the type of player the Sun went after this draft cycle just make every game fun and competitive for a period of time.
Must Watch Score: 7/10
New York Liberty (16-6) vs. Dallas Wings (7-17): 8:00 PM ET, ESPN
Why it’s worth a watch: Paige vs. Sabrina will be the headline but the real battle is going to be Paige vs. Natasha Cloud. I always love these types of tests for young players. Cloud is a veteran with All-Defense nominations under her belt and usually is the primary defender on her opponents best backcourt player. The same way we used to watch a rookie quarterback be broken in by a Bill Belichick defense for the first time, I love watching young guards get veteran defensive stoppers to just see how they perform.
There’s a good chance this gets out of hand simply due to the Liberty having a much deeper and more talented frontcourt but watching Paige is worth the price of admission. Plus, we’re starting to see a little more post up action from the rookie guard and seeing that aspect of her game, at this level, this early? That could be truly scary for the rest of the league.
Must Watch Score: 7.5/10
If You Can Only Watch One Game A Day…
Friday, July 25 - Phoenix Mercury (15-8) vs. New York Liberty (16-6): 7:30 PM ET, ION
Saturday, July 26 - Seattle Storm (15-10) vs. Washington Mystics (11-12): 7:30 PM ET, League Pass
Sunday, July 27 - Atlanta Dream (14-10) vs. Minnesota Lynx (21-4): 7:00 PM ET, NBATV
Monday, July 28 - New York Liberty (16-6) vs. Dallas Wings (7-17): 8:00 PM ET, ESPN