The 'Ball-Knowers' WNBA Watch Guide: Weekend of August 1 - August 4
We are officially in the home stretch of the WNBA regular season and games will start to mean more and more with each passing week. What do you need to watch for? We got you covered with the Guide.
As we round the corner into August, most WNBA teams have less than 20 games left on their regular season schedule which means we are in the home stretch before the playoffs. Every game is going to mean something the rest of the way especially as the middle of the league standings continue to be logjammed. Just six games separate the second best team in the W from the 10th best. A streak of wins or run of losses can mean the difference between being firmly in the playoff position and being on the outside looking in.
Naturally, that’s great for women’s basketball fans. You want regular season matchups to mean something as we get deeper into the year and it feels like we are being set up for a fantastic finish heading into the fall. With that in mind, let’s take a look at the top matchups in the league this weekend and get you up on what to watch as well as what to watch for.
Friday, August 1
Phoenix Mercury (15-8) vs. Atlanta Dream (16-11): 7:30 PM ET, ION
Why It’s Worth a Watch: On paper, this is one of my favorite matchups in the WNBA this year. If we get a game in which both the Mercury and Dream have hot shooting hands, we’ll be treated to a classic. Both teams play with pace, space the floor and feast from beyond the three point line. It also matters in the context of the current league standings. Right now there’s a three team battle for the #3 seed in the playoffs. Phoenix, Seattle and Atlanta are separated by a half a game. And that’s before you consider Indiana and Las Vegas who are right on their tail.
What to Watch For: It’s becoming clear that the Achilles Heel for the Mercury is their lack of interior presence. The last time these teams met last week, Brittney Griner had one of her best games of the year. Phoenix has 6’7 Kalani Brown on the bench and she’s provided good minutes for them in the past but is this the time where Nate Tibbetts starts to utilize her again?
Must Watch Score: 9/10
New York Liberty (17-9) vs. Connecticut Sun (4-21): 7:30 PM ET, ION
Why It’s Worth a Watch: Normally, this game wouldn’t even really register on the watch scale for me. We know what Connecticut is and New York absolutely pummeled them to the tune of 100-52 the last time these teams played one another. What’s worth tuning in for is Emma Meesseman, the Belgian superstar and ex-WNBA Finals MVP. The visa process has been gone smoothly, she’s officially been signed by New York and will make her debut against Connecticut. With Breanna Stewart out of the lineup, she’ll be an instant add at 6’4 and likely playing at that 4 spot on the floor.
What to Watch For: I don’t anticipate starter level minutes for Meesseeman right out of the gate. But I am fascinated to see how she plays in the limited time we’re likely to see. In some ways, getting going against Connecticut is the perfect situation for her since it’s not a high level matchup and a matchup with the Sun is more forgiving than a top five unit in the league. Generally, it’ll be the baseline things I’ll be looking at. Fitness, touch around the rim, defensive positioning, all of those things that will tell you upfront if this has a shot to work or not. I have a funny feeling she’ll be just fine.
Must Watch Score: 7.5/10
Golden State Valkyries (13-13) vs. Chicago Sky (7-19): 7:30 PM ET, ION
Why It’s Worth a Watch: The injury bug has once again hit Golden State with Mo Billings out for three weeks after getting nicked up in the Valkyries matchup against Atlanta. That’s before you get to Chicago, who remain without Angel Reese and Ariel Atkins. In a lot of ways, the injuries make this game interesting because it will come down to coaches and culture. Natalie Nakase and Tyler Marsh are both off the Becky Hammon tree and former colleagues in Vegas. The effort and intensity of each team in this one feels like it’ll be instructive as a data point in what culture each new coach is building.
What to Watch For: For the second time this season, we’re seeing a battle between former Aces assistant coaches. In the first matchup, Golden State got the better of Chicago, 83-78. But that was a different time in a lot of ways. Kayla Thornton scored 29 points in that one. She’s injured. Ariel Atkins had 20 for Chicago. She’s injured. Angel Reese had a game high 18 rebounds. And she’s injured. Absent the star power, I’m watching the schematic fight between Marsh and Nakase in what feels like a true clipboard matchup.
Must Watch Score: 7/10
Indiana Fever (15-12) vs. Dallas Wings (8-20): 7:30 PM ET, ION
Why It’s Worth a Watch: Sadly, we probably won’t be getting Caitlin vs. Paige again this year as the Friday injury report lists the Fever superstar out again with a right groin injury. But what we lose in starpower, we regain in an Indiana team that is playing some really damn good basketball right now. Dallas, to their credit, has been solidly competitive for most of July and will likely put up a decent fight at home after nearly knocking off Atlanta earlier this week.
What to Watch For: The true team effort of the Fever has been the x-factor for them over the course of the last week or two. They’ve gotten game changing contributions from Kelsey Mitchell on some nights and Aliyah Boston on others. While Carolyn Peck was off in saying Indiana might be better without Clark in the lineup, the idea that they might be harder to gameplan for could be true. They’ve managed to present matchup problems in a variety of ways and make up Caitlin’s scoring loss in the aggregate (shoutout to Billy Beane). Even without their superstar, Indiana is still a fun watch and worth your time.
Must Watch Score: 8/10
Los Angeles Sparks (11-15) vs. Seattle Storm (16-11): 10:00 PM ET, ION
Why It’s Worth a Watch: L.A., in spite of their record, looks much better than they did even a month and a half ago. And that’s before we get into Cameron Brink, who made her return to WNBA action earlier this week against Las Vegas. It’s a bit of a trial by fire to go against A’ja Wilson in your first competitive basketball in 13 months and it doesn’t get any easier on Friday night against Seattle. The Storm, for their part, are trying to find a bit more consistency night-in and night-out as they make a push to get and keep the #3 seed or even make a push on New York for #2.
What to Watch For: Brink vs. the Storm frontcourt is going to be really interesting. Ezi Magbegor and Nneka Ogwumike have been a mixed bag when on the floor together this year and I’m curious how they manage the tag-team of Brink and Azura Stevens, which we’re bound to see plenty of in this game. Nneka, in particular, finished with 26 points on 12/16 shooting the last time these two teams played but that was a very different L.A. team. If Brink can stay out of foul trouble with potentially extended minutes, this one could be interesting.
Must Watch Score: 8.5/10
Saturday, August 2
Minnesota Lynx (23-5) vs. Las Vegas Aces (14-13): 3:00 PM ET, ABC/ESPN+
Why It’s Worth a Watch: Anytime you get A’ja Wilson and Napheesa Collier on the floor together, you’re making a pretty good gamble that you’ll get a good game. The last time these two met was last week and the Lynx cruised to an easy win. If there’s one thing about the Aces that we’ve learned this year is that while they might not have the same ceiling as they used to, they’re pretty good at getting off the mat against teams that played them off the floor. A win against Minnesota would be huge for the morale of Vegas and their fanbase.
What to Watch For: The box office matchup here is obviously Phee vs. A’ja but my interest here is more in what happens with Jewell Loyd. The veteran guard was taken out of the starting lineup after an 0-10 performance last week against, you guessed it, the Lynx. Since her move to the bench, the Aces have won back-to-back games, dominating the Wings and dispatching a surging Sparks. The performances from Loyd (and Kierstan Bell, who replaced her in the starting lineup) were a bit of a mixed bag, so what will we get against a team Vegas needs to prove it can beat?
Must Watch Score: 8/10
Sunday, August 3
New York Liberty (17-9) vs. Connecticut Sun (4-21): 1:00 PM ET, League Pass
Why It’s Worth a Watch: Without the shine of Meesseman’s debut, this game becomes a pretty forgettable matchup in terms of competitiveness. There’s some fun things to see here from the Sun’s rookies (who I always recommend people watch at least a few times) to more Meesseman minutes as she ramps up for the stretch run. But if you’re expecting a game that keeps you entertained deep into the fourth quarter, you might be fine sleeping in or getting some additional work done Sunday morning before the early afternoon slate.
What to Watch For: As it always is with Connecticut, I think if you’re watching a game you have to keep an eye on the rookies each possession. The growth that Saniya Rivers and Aneesah Morrow are displaying is an underdiscussed storyline and, whatever happens in the future with this team, one that will make them indispensable pieces for the future. Outside of that, I always personally enjoyed Olivia Nelson-Ododa minutes. At 6’5 and 24 years old, she’s one of the more underrated players in the league and will be an underratedly important free agent for Connecticut if they want to keep her this offseason.
Must Watch Score: 7/10
Washington Mystics (13-14) vs. Atlanta Dream (16-11): 3:00 PM ET, ESPN3
Why It’s Worth a Watch: This is another fun and pacey matchup with playoff seeding implications. Over the course of the year, we’ve come to find out that the Mystics ceiling is probably a shade over .500 but that’s okay for what their current roster construction is. Atlanta is going to need to stop losing to lower end teams if they want to solidify a high seeding and these types of games all of a sudden are becoming really important. The last time both teams met, the Dream just escaped with a 92-91 win. I’m interested in seeing if it stays that close again.
What to Watch For: The frontcourt matchup here is the draw. Shakira Austin led Washington with 28 points and 10 rebounds in the last meeting. Both she and Kiki Iriafen fouled out and I’d be surprised if I saw that happen again. On the other end, they’ll be matched up against Brionna Jones, Brittney Griner and also Naz Hillmon, who is putting together one heck of a Sixth Woman of the Year campaign. If you like interior play and a battle between frontcourts, this might be one of the picks of the weekend.
Must Watch Score: 8/10
Indiana Fever (15-12) vs. Seattle Storm (16-11): 3:00 PM ET, ABC/ESPN+
Why It’s Worth a Watch: This one feels like it’s gonna have a playoff atmosphere on Sunday. The Storm and Fever are separated in the standings by just one game and feel somewhat similar in that their ceiling is uncertain but we know their baseline is good. Even without Caitlin Clark, this is going to be a wickedly fun matchup. Natasha Howard is facing her Seattle team while Erica Wheeler gets another shot at her old Fever teammates. She put up 20 on 50% 3PT shooting the last time Indiana came to town. On a variety of fronts, this is a great game, Caitlin Clark or no Caitlin Clark, and it’s worth a watch on the big network.
What to Watch For: Aliyah Boston finished with 31 points on 13/18 shooting in the last matchup in late June but, it’s worth noting, that came with Caitlin facilitating much of the pick-n-roll action. While AB’s scoring output has diminished without her point guard in the lineup, she’s established a nice double-double baseline since returning from the All-Star break and I expect to see that continue, even against a Storm frontcourt that is still a top end unit in the league.
Must Watch Score: 9/10
Phoenix Mercury (16-10) vs. Chicago Sky (7-19): 6:00 PM ET, League Pass
Why It’s Worth a Watch: This is one of the more cut-and-dried matchups of the weekend. The one thing about Phoenix is they rarely lose to teams that are below their weight class. Outside of one loss to Dallas, every opponent that’s gotten the better of the Mercury is over .500. I don’t really expect to see a change here but Chicago did nearly manage the upset in Phoenix earlier in the season. As the season starts to wrap up, I want to see some fight from the Sky game-to-game. It’s about culture now and setting a tone of what is acceptable.
What to Watch For: I need to see Chicago defend in transition. One of the things that has been tough about watching the Sky this year is just how many open three point looks they give up especially out of the structure of a half court offense. Phoenix, as we’ve seen time and time again this year, buries teams when given open looks from beyond the arc. Conversely, the Mercury need to figure out what to do with Kamilla Cardoso. In the two past meetings, the 6’7 center has finished with the following statlines: 17 points on 7/9 shooting and 16 points and nine rebounds on 8/14 shooting. In both games, Kalani Brown got extended run for Phoenix. I have to imagine we’re gonna see double digit minutes for her again.
Must Watch Score: 7.5/10
Golden State Valkyries (13-13) vs. Las Vegas Aces (14-13): 6:00 PM ET, League Pass
Why It’s Worth a Watch: This is a fun little rivalry on display between master and apprentice. After the Valkyries completely destroyed the Aces early in the year, Vegas responded in mid July and won 104-102 on the back of 64 combined points from Jackie Young and A’ja Wilson. The thing that takes some of the teeth out of this matchup is the fact that the Valks are just injured beyond all belief. As the saying goes, availability is the best ability and, to that end, the Aces are simply healthier than Golden State is. But we should know by this point that Natalie Nakase is able to get the most out of whoever she has and that should still make this one compelling regardless.
What to Watch For: In the last matchup, it was Janelle Salaun and former Aces sixth woman Tiffany Hayes that carried Golden State. It was also one of NaLyssa Smith’s first games in a Vegas uniform. What are we likely to get now that the former Fever forward is fully worked into the Aces system? Additionally, who among the Golden State guards will step up in the wake of Thornton’s injury? We’ve seen a committee effort to fill the gap but someone is going to have to draw the Jackie Young assignment and defend her competently.
Must Watch Score: 8/10
Monday, August 4
No Games
If You Can Only Watch One Game A Day…
Friday, August 1 - Phoenix Mercury (15-8) vs. Atlanta Dream (16-11): 7:30 PM ET, ION
Saturday, August 2 - Minnesota Lynx (23-5) vs. Las Vegas Aces (14-13): 3:00 PM ET, ABC/ESPN+
Sunday, August 3 - Indiana Fever (15-12) vs. Seattle Storm (16-11): 3:00 PM ET, ABC/ESPN+
Honorable Mentions -
Friday, August 1 - Los Angeles Sparks (11-15) vs. Seattle Storm (16-11): 10:00 PM ET, ION
Sunday, August 3 -Washington Mystics (13-14) vs. Atlanta Dream (16-11): 3:00 PM ET, ESPN3