The 'Ball-Knowers' NCAA Weekly Watch Guide: Week of February 18-21
While there might not be a 10/10 Must-Watch game on this week's docket, there's plenty of good matchups with league title implications that are worth watching. No Cap Space WBB has your guide here!
At No Cap Space WBB, we want you to know ball. We want you to be able to look at other folks who may not know ball and not look down on them but instead educate them because you do, in fact, know ball. But during the college basketball season that can be hard. There’s, at any point, 10+ games happening on the same day in a variety of time windows.
So on Mondays and Fridays, we will be releasing what we call the ‘Ball-Knowers’ NCAA Watch Guide. Essentially, it’s a handful of games that our staff picks for each day based on a couple different metrics: how competitive the game might be, if there’s a player we like or find interesting involved, if there’s a team to watch or if the game has implications for NCAA selection in March. It’s basically a guide to help you see the forest through the trees so that by the spring you’ll have a good idea of who is a threat to make a run in the Dance.
With just a couple of weeks left until the conference and NCAA Tournaments, almost every day ahead has at least one matchup with implications that could shake up a league title race. In the Big 12, Big Ten and SEC, we may end up with some truly wild tiebreaker scenarios including a possible coin toss (seriously!). It’s chaos. It’s craziness. It’s NCAA Women’s Basketball. Tap in!
Tuesday, February 18th
No. 24 Oklahoma State (20-5, 10-4 Big 12) vs. Utah (20-5, 11-3 Big 12): 9:00 PM ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: This is a huge week in the Big 12. TCU still has West Virginia and Baylor on their regular season schedule so if you’re a team like Utah, sitting in a tie for second with Kansas State, every game is massive. Oklahoma State is on the outside looking in of a title race and one loss effectively bumps them out. Utah, on the other hand, is probably the nation’s most underdiscussed elite team. They had a bad stretch of losses with Kennady McQueen out of the lineup but since she’s returned, the Utes have been steamrolling their competition in the Big 12. Guard on guard, good on good is the story of this matchup. But I like Utah here. Feels like they’re gonna surprise some folks as we round the turn into March.
Must-Watch Score: 8/10
Wednesday, February 19th
No. 5 UConn (24-3, 14-0 Big East) vs. Seton Hall (18-7, 10-4 Big East): 7:00 PM ET
Why it’s worth a watch: How will UConn continue their run of great form after a statement blowout win against South Carolina? I guess we’ll find out. Seton Hall isn’t expected to win this game by any means but they’re still in the NCAA Tournament hunt and they’re gonna need to keep this matchup close. More importantly, a loss puts them in a three game tie in the Big East with Marquette and Villanova. So while I have no delusions about an upset here, it does make a couple of Big East races a little bit juicier. Faith Masonius will draw all the attention of the Husky defense but if you’re watching for UConn, all eyes go to Sarah Strong. We’re setting up for a photo finish in the National Freshman of the Year race so any chance you get to watch the superstar freshman big, take it.
Must-Watch Score: 7/10
Ball State (20-5, 12-0 MAC) vs. Toledo (18-5, 9-3 MAC): 7:00 PM ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: A lot would have to break bad for Ball State’s three game lead in the MAC to evaporate but I’m not tuning into this for the conference title race implications. Instead, I’m interested in another chance to see the Cardinals against a higher end team and what I can glean in regard to their competitiveness as an NCAA Tournament team. Most of their games against high-majors or similarly competitive mid-majors have been losses. Whether it was to North Carolina, South Dakota State or James Madison, Ball State was on the losing end. I don’t foresee a loss to Toledo here but the manner in which Ball State wins is going to matter to me. A lot of mid-major stuff is eye test at this point in the year and figuring out which ones are the potential 12 seed giant killers that we love picking come March.
Must-Watch Score: 7/10
Green Bay (23-5, 16-1 Horizon) vs. Cleveland State (21-6, 12-4 Horizon): 7:00 PM ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: Cleveland State did Green Bay a huge favor this past week, beating Purdue Fort Wayne and giving the Phoenix the Horizon League lead. Now it may be time to play chaos agent again. This is pretty much the home stretch for GB, who gets longtime rival CSU and then a season finale against Purdue Fort Wayne in what could be a Horizon League Regular Season Championship game. At this point in the game, the Vikings are would need to win out and GB and Purdue to lose at least two matchups each to have a shot to steal the title. But that doesn’t mean this game isn’t going to be supremely interesting. Mickayla Perdue is CSU’s scoring leader while Natalie McNeal leads a balanced Green Bay attack. The Horizon is one of my favorite leagues every year so give it a chance and you might come away with a soft spot for it too.
Must-Watch Score: 7.5/10
Oregon (18-8, 9-6 Big Ten) vs. Nebraska (17-9, 8-7 Big Ten): 8:00 PM ET, B1G+
Why it’s worth a watch: Whatever you might think about Kelly Graves and this iteration of his Oregon team, they just keep winning where it matters. The Ducks took two massive matchups against Washington and Minnesota which, for my money, puts them comfortably in the NCAA Tournament. They can truly solidify that and an 8 seed in the Big Ten Conference Tourney with another road win here over Nebraska. The Huskers, at home in Lincoln for this one, are playing for their tournament lives. They and Minnesota feel like the odd squads out right now in the bubble picture and a win over Oregon could be the bounce they need to look good to the committee. Elisa Mevius has been fantastic for the Ducks down the stretch here and if you’re gonna watch for anything, tap in for her and Deja Kelly in the 4th quarter. Talk about ice in the veins.
Must-Watch Score: 8/10
No. 19 Baylor (22-5, 12-2 Big 12) vs. Colorado (17-8, 8-6 Big 12): 9:00 PM ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: Colorado has already been a Big 12 chaos agent this year, beating West Virginia and Kansas State in Boulder. Now, they get to play host to Baylor, the current co-leader of the conference with TCU. Feels totally ripe for another upset that upends the Big 12’s expectations. Credit where it’s due for Nicki Collen. Baylor has completely converted their doubters and has rounded into the form of a team that we expected them to be at the beginning of the year. The Bears are talented, balanced, deep and veteran laden. That’s the kind of roster construction that will matter especially in their final two games of the year against Kansas State and TCU. In order to keep pace with the Frogs and make that home game on March 2nd a shot to win a title, they can’t get caught up here in Boulder. They managed to hold off the Buffs in Waco back in January but Jade Masogayo and this Colorado team is a different animal in the CUEC.
Must-Watch Score: 7.5/10
No. 22 Michigan State (19-6, 9-5 Big Ten) vs. No. 4 USC (23-2, 13-1 Big Ten): 9:30 PM ET, Peacock
Why it’s worth a watch: The stakes are sky high for USC and their crosstown rival UCLA the rest of the way. Continue to win and Battle of LA Part 2 is for all the marbles in the Big Ten. But there’s some tough games between now and then. Enter Michigan State, who probably felt they let one get away from them at UCLA over the weekend, and are one of the most mentally tough teams in college basketball. The Spartans are led by Julia Ayrault and Grace VanSlooten but it’s been really impressive how role players like Theryn Hallock, Jaddan Simmons and Nyla Hampton have stepped up in big moments. They’ll need all of that against a USC team that manages to find a way even when things go sideways. The Trojans win over Washington was a perfect example. JuJu Watkins seemed a bit gassed after a virtuoso performance against UCLA and with the game tightening it fell to Kiki Iriafen to save them late. This is one of those games where I expect to see USC challenged again and then we get the fun part: finding out which of these two teams, who have shown they have that dawg in them all year, have the most dawg of all.
Must-Watch Score: 8.5/10
Thursday, February 20th
No. 18 Alabama (21-5, 8-4 SEC) vs. No. 15 Tennessee (19-6, 6-6 SEC): 6:30 PM ET, SECN+
Why it’s worth a watch: This feels like a pretty neat battle for the right to be an NCAA Top 16 seed and thus have the ability to host the first two rounds. Charlie Creme projects Tennessee as a 4 seed currently while Alabama is a 5 seed. A couple wins and losses might flip those lines and could create a big change for the Lady Vols in particular, who have been great in Thompson-Boling Arena this year. Past the narrative, I love this matchup. Kristy Curry’s Crimson Tide get out and run and shoot. There’s just no slowing down when you have players like Sarah Ashlee Barker, Zaay Green and Aaliyah Nye. We know what Tennessee is at this point and if you see them in a Top 25 matchup on the schedule and still decide to not watch them, that’s on you. For my money, they’re the best 19-6 team in the country but while the UConn win is a great exhale for the fanbase’s desire to return to relevance, games like these are the ones you also gotta win in crunch time.
Must-Watch Score: 8.5/10
No. 8 Ohio State (22-3, 11-3 Big Ten) vs. Indiana (16-9, 8-6 Big Ten): 7:00 PM ET, Peacock
Why it’s worth a watch: The Buckeyes are coming off back to back wins over Minnesota and Iowa and showed their Tournament mettle in both. Are there legitimate concerns about how deep this team can go with the roster as currently constructed? Yes, definitely. But games like these are the ones that Ohio State just knows how to win and has gotten used to winning over the last couple years. They might be a shade behind USC and UCLA but those teams, when fully healthy, are national title contenders so that’s nothing to be ashamed of. Indiana, on the other hand, is fighting to maintain a high seed in the Big Ten Tournament — they’re a loss away from entering a muddy area with Iowa and Nebraska — and to maintain their projected bye in the NCAA bracket. It’s been a weird year for the Hoosiers but they’re still solidly competitive in conference. Plus, the guard matchups between these two teams are always enjoyable to see.
Must-Watch Score: 8/10
Louisville (18-7, 11-3 ACC) vs. No. 11 Duke (20-6, 11-3 ACC): 7:00 PM ET, ESPN2
Why it’s worth a watch: I’m still on the train of ‘Jeff Walz is Women’s Basketball Heisenberg’. I don’t think I’ll ever get off. The way Walter White just kept on finding ways to survive and advance in the face of ever increasing adversity kinda feels like Louisville every year. We just sort of write them off and then all of a sudden here they are, beating Top 25 conference opponents and sitting in the top five of the league. Now, they get a chance to really kick that into overdrive. It’s pretty clear who Louisville doesn’t matchup well with — teams that can run and shoot and score in bunches — but, fortunately for them, Duke isn’t that kind of team. It might be tough on the eyes, though not as bad as Duke - UNC for instance. But it’s a great narrative battle because if Louisville wins, expect to see me on Bluesky posting my favorite Jesse Pinkman gif of “HE CAN’T KEEP GETTING AWAY WITH IT”.
Must-Watch Score: 8/10
No. 13 NC State (20-5, 12-2 ACC) vs. No. 20 Georgia Tech (21-5, 9-5 ACC): 7:00 PM ET, ACC Extra
Why it’s worth a watch: Man, NC State was oh so close. I didn’t love the final play drawn up by Wes Moore and hated Aziaha James path to the basket as well as her flop to get a couple shots. But in that type of situation you do what you gotta do. It effectively pulls the Wolfpack out of the ACC race since Notre Dame appears to be on a path to going undefeated in league play but this game still is fun in a lot of ways. First and foremost, everything is about seeding math for Georgia Tech. The path to a Sweet 16 as a six seed is a whole heck of a lot different than the path as a seven seed. No doubt Nell Fortner prefers the former. NC State is a three seed and it would take a lot of disaster to push them off a Top 16 line. I’m psyched for this one because both teams are so guard centric which can make for a fun chess match between coaches and better battles between their players.
Must-Watch Score: 8.5/10
Vanderbilt (19-7, 6-6 SEC) vs. No. 16 Oklahoma (19-6, 7-5 SEC): 7:00 PM ET, SECN+
Why it’s worth a watch: Mikayla Blakes. That’s it. I got nothing else. She’s got two 50 point games this year and now holds the NCAA freshman single game scoring record. Turn it on. Enjoy. Send tweets. Shout her name in the streets. This kid is next. And that’s all the reason in the world to watch this game.
Must-Watch Score: 8.5/10
Belmont (16-9, 11-3 MVC) vs. Illinois State (16-9, 10-4 MVC): 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: The MVC has a spectacular run of contest to end their regular season. Just about everyone in the top five of the conference plays each other in some way, shape or form between now and March 8th. The big game for Belmont will be against Missouri State on the first of the month, assuming the two are still at the top of the standings by then. But, as we’ve seen over the past two games for the Bruins, nothing is certain in this conference. The league records between first and fifth are as follows… 12-2, 11-3, 11-3, 10-4, 10-4. It’s borderline round-robin matchups to end the year. While there are good two or three team races in the high-majors, I think the MVC might be the most dramatic finish in America this year. Every game among that top end grouping is a must-watch.
Must-Watch Score: 7/10
Florida Gulf Coast (23-3, 14-0 ASUN) vs. Central Arkansas (19-6, 13-1 ASUN): 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: Could Florida Gulf Coasts’ long reign over the ASUN come to an end, even if just for a year? Central Arkansas, the school in possession of the greatest mascot name in college sports, might be the ones to finally do it. The Sugar Bears (see!? how awesome is that name!?) have breezed through the conference since a 68-60 loss to Bellarmine and while they might not be the best team to represent the league against top end March competition, they still have a shot here to draw level with FGCU. But I think the Eagles got a bit of a bad wrap to open the year. Karl Smesko took the Atlanta Dream job and they dropped three games in their non-con to Davidson by 1, Columbia by 11 and Montana State by 9. Worth noting that two of those three teams are on track to win their conferences. Florida Gulf Coast goes as Emani Jefferson goes and while the scoring averages are down, she’s every bit the star that the school usually produces.
Must-Watch Score: 7.5/10
No. 25 Illinois (21-5, 11-4 Big Ten) vs. No. 3 UCLA (24-1, 12-1 Big Ten): 9:30 PM ET, BTN
Why it’s worth a watch: Illinois, for my money, is the most underrated team in NCAA women’s basketball. Granted, there are a couple of losses on the schedule that they’d want back but their wins prove that the Illini have the ability to punch with some of the better teams in the nation. We’re gonna see that put to the ultimate test against UCLA first and then USC this weekend. It’s the hardest road trip in college hoops this year and it simply isn’t close. But the big question for the Bruins will be about the health of their National Player of the Year contending center Lauren Betts. I’d be surprised if she was out for an extended period of time but UCLA showed last weekend that without here, there are vulnerabilities to exploit. Illinois is probably watching a lot of that tape from the Michigan State game. It’s late in the evening but quietly one of the best games of the week. You might even see a result that would shock you if you didn’t come first to the loving embrace of the Ball-Knower’s Watch Guide.
Must-Watch Score: 9/10
Friday, February 21st
Drexel (13-9, 9-3 CAA) vs. Campbell (15-9, 8-4 CAA): 7:00 PM ET
Why it’s worth a watch: Drexel was on our list last week for their game against William & Mary and the Dragons proved that they are right on the cusp of catching North Carolina A&T. They’ll need some help, as they lost the only matchup of the year to the Aggies and with that in mind they’ll need them to lose not one but two games down the stretch. Certainly a big ask but entirely possible. To do that, they’ll need to beat Campbell who, on paper, actually feels like the best program in this conference but has lost to lower end teams in the league while beating the best. It might be a fun finish especially if we have intrigue in the other game that’s happening at the same time.
Must-Watch Score: 6.5/10
North Carolina A&T (14-9, 10-2 CAA) vs. William & Mary (10-13, 7-5 CAA): 7:00 PM ET
Why it’s worth a watch: Had the Tribe not lost back to back roadies to Drexel and Delaware, this game would matter a lot more for their hopes to win the CAA. They have two games against North Carolina A&T still on the schedule and can be utter chaos merchants if they get up for the biggest games. The Aggies just really need to hang on the rest of the way and the title is theirs for the taking. But, as we’ve seen in this conference, a lot of weird stuff can happen so it’s making the list all the same.
Must-Watch Score: 6.5/10