The 'Ball-Knowers' NCAA Weekend Watch Guide: Weekend of February 21-24
A couple of massive mid-major games highlight the weekend before the high-majors hold court on Sunday. Your curated watch guide for one of the final regular season weekends.
At No Cap Space WBB, we want you to know ball. We want you to be able to look at other folks who may not know ball and not look down on them but instead educate them because you do, in fact, know ball. But during the college basketball season that can be hard. There’s, at any point, 10+ games happening on the same day in a variety of time windows.
So on Mondays and Fridays, we will be releasing what we call the ‘Ball-Knowers’ NCAA Watch Guide. Essentially, it’s a handful of games that our staff picks for each day based on a couple different metrics: how competitive the game might be, if there’s a player we like or find interesting involved, if there’s a team to watch or if the game has implications for NCAA selection in March. It’s basically a guide to help you see the forest through the trees so that by the spring you’ll have a good idea of who is a threat to make a run in the Dance.
The weekend ahead is a nice split of important games on Saturday and Sunday so you have options in terms of what to put on the main screen. The mid-majors, from the Ivy League to the MVC have games with title race implications while the ACC and Big 12 have huge matchups on Sunday and Monday. Let’s get you ready for the home stretch and one of the last weekends of the Watch Guide for the season!
Friday, February 21st
Drexel (13-9, 9-3 CAA) vs. Campbell (15-9, 8-4 CAA): 7:00 PM ET
Why it’s worth a watch: Drexel was on our list last week for their game against William & Mary and the Dragons proved that they are right on the cusp of catching North Carolina A&T. They’ll need some help, as they lost the only matchup of the year to the Aggies and with that in mind they’ll need them to lose not one but two games down the stretch. Certainly a big ask but entirely possible. To do that, they’ll need to beat Campbell who, on paper, actually feels like the best program in this conference but has lost to lower end teams in the league while beating the best. It might be a fun finish especially if we have intrigue in the other game that’s happening at the same time.
Must-Watch Score: 6.5/10
North Carolina A&T (14-9, 10-2 CAA) vs. William & Mary (10-13, 7-5 CAA): 7:00 PM ET
Why it’s worth a watch: Had the Tribe not lost back to back roadies to Drexel and Delaware, this game would matter a lot more for their hopes to win the CAA. They have two games against North Carolina A&T still on the schedule and can be utter chaos merchants if they get up for the biggest games. The Aggies just really need to hang on the rest of the way and the title is theirs for the taking. But, as we’ve seen in this conference, a lot of weird stuff can happen so it’s making the list all the same.
Must-Watch Score: 6.5/10
Saturday, February 22nd
Norfolk State (22-4, 9-0 MEAC) vs. Coppin State (16-9, 7-2 MEAC): 2:00 PM ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: Norfolk, for the most part, has run over most of the MEAC but they still have two of the toughest teams in the league left on their schedule. The Spartans beat Coppin State pretty easily last time around on the back of a 19 point, 14 rebound performance by Kierra Wheeler. I expect she and Diamond Johnson will continue to be the dynamic tag team that has led NSU to one of the best years in HBCU women’s basketball history (more on this soon in a separate feature). Angel Jones has been a one-woman army for Coppin all year long and put up 29 and 8 the last time these two teams met. It’s also important to note that Lai’la Lawrence, who leads the Eagles in scoring and rebounds, went 2-11 from the field in the first matchup. If she hits close to her averages we may have an interesting race ahead of us.
Must-Watch Score: 7/10
Iowa State (19-9, 10-5 Big 12) vs. No. 19 Baylor (23-5, 13-2 Big 12) 2:30 PM ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: Iowa State? Man, I’m just not sure. I think their ceiling as a team has been pretty clearly defined this season. They’ve beaten everyone on or below their level in the Big 12 but have lost to every team just a shade better or more. Right now, the Cyclones are one of the last four teams in, per ESPN’s Bracketology from Charlie Creme. Which tells me that this game, or the March 2nd matchup against Kansas State, are must wins. But as much as ISU is playing for their Tournament lives, Baylor is playing to keep pace with TCU atop the Big 12 regular season title standings. And given that those two teams meet in the regular season finale, every win the rest of the way matters. In terms of players to watch, the battle of the centers will be awesome. Audi Crooks vs. Aaronette Vonleh? Sign me up.
Must-Watch Score: 8/10
Colorado (17-9, 8-7 Big 12) vs. No. 24 Oklahoma State (21-5, 11-4 Big 12): 3:00 PM ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: Colorado might be just too far off the bubble to salvage a late case for the Tournament but if they want a shot it starts here. At this point in the exercise, it’s pretty clear who the Buffs don’t matchup well with: a team with a tall and physical center. Their win over Kansas State came with 6’7 Ayoka Lee out of the lineup, for instance. They have a pair of ‘bad’ losses for a Tourney resume in Cincinnati and Boise State but victories over K-State and West Virginia keep them in it. With just two games left after this one — and to bottom half teams in Arizona State and Texas Tech — it feels like you need to win this game and grab a conference tournament upset to make a legitimate case for the Dance in March. The big challenge? How a very injured Buffs team (four starters are hurt!) handles an Oklahoma State that can shoot the stripes off the ball when their guards get hot.
Must-Watch Score: 7/10
Missouri State (21-5, 13-2 MVC) vs. Drake (18-8, 12-3 MVC): 3:00 PM ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: You down with MVC? Yeah, you know me. Sorry, it’s corny I know. But it’s the best regular season title race, or one of them at least, in women’s college basketball right now. Belmont has been upset twice in two weeks, knocking them out of the race while Drake’s wins in the same time have pulled them to within a game of Missouri State, who they take on this Saturday afternoon. I’m not sure what it is about Springfield, but the MSU program has always been one of the most consistent mid-major high achievers of the modern era dating back to Jackie Stiles. Coach Kellie Harper leaves for a bigger job? No issue. Amaka Agugua-Hamilton goes to Virginia? Cool. Beth Cunningham has the machine rolling again and now the Lady Bears, led by a combination of Lacy Stokes in the backcourt and Sarah Linthacum in the front meet the Bulldogs. I’ve said it time and time again but if you don’t watch Katie Dinnebier, you’re missing out. In their season changing win over Belmont she had 42 points on 14-25 shooting from the field while doling out 8 assists. When they’ve needed her, she’s answered. Oh, and both these teams love to score.
Must-Watch Score: 8/10
UNLV (21-5, 13-1 Mtn West) vs. Colorado State (20-7, 11-3 Mtn West): 3:00 PM ET, MWC Network (Stream)
Why it’s worth a watch: I’ve been kind of quiet on UNLV this year because I think Lindy La Rocque’s team has entered something of a ‘prove it’ mode. Yes, you might run through your conference but what is the ceiling in March? I will say this: I’m impressed with how this team has managed to become a group effort after letting program changing center Desi-Rae Young handle so much of the heavy lifting these last couple years. They beat Colorado State by 9 in Vegas earlier this year but now head to Moby Arena which will surely be rocking. This team goes as star transfer Emma Ronsiek goes and if she has help from the supporting cast of Rams, CSU has the chance to win a huge game and pull within one game of the Mountain West lead. Adding to the intrigue is both teams have Wyoming left on the schedule, who nearly clipped UNLV in Nevada. If CSU wins this they have an outside shot to have their rival do them one massive favor.
Must-Watch Score: 7.5/10
Columbia (18-5, 9-1 Ivy) vs. Princeton (18-5, 9-1 Ivy): 5:30 PM ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: Columbia’s 60-54 loss to Harvard pulled the Crimson with one game of a two way tie at the top of the Ivy League. Now we figure out who is going to take the lead. The Lions beat the Princeton 58-50 in the first meeting by keeping the Tigers off the free throw line and forcing 24 turnovers. So there’s a pathway for a Princeton win until you consider this: Columbia leading scorer Riley Weiss was 2-13 in that game. Allison Chea has stepped up admirably for Princeton after their star guard Madison St. Rose went down with an injury early in the year. But the team with real interest in this game is Harvard. If Princeton wins this one, the aforementioned two teams play next week. Which could, theoretically, lead to all three teams being 9-2 at the top of the standings with a week and a half left in the regular season. So yes, give me chaos. I want all of it. Coin flips for everyone!
Must-Watch Score: 8/10
Sunday, February 23rd
No. 1 Notre Dame (24-2, 15-0 ACC) vs. No. 13 NC State (21-5, 13-2 ACC): 12:00 PM ET, ESPN/Disney +
Why it’s worth a watch: This game feels like such a ‘what if’ because had Aziaha James managed to that basket at the end of regulation in Chapel Hill, NC State might have beaten North Carolina and entered this matchup just one magical game back from the top ranked Irish. So some of the teeth has been taken out of this matchup but none of the watchability. If there is a guard matchup of the year from top to bottom, this is one of them. Aziaha James, Zoe Brooks and Saniya Rivers in one corner, Hannah Hidalgo, Olivia Miles and Sonia Citron in the other. I mean, how much better can it get? The big question will be how the front courts and wing positions match up as the Wolfpack have to keep Liatu King off the boards where she has feasted to the tune of 10.7 per game. Even though it isn’t for an outside shot of an ACC title chase for NC State, this game will feel like an Elite Eight matchup. Easy watch for Sunday afternoon or morning.
Must-Watch Score: 9.5/10
No. 17 West Virginia (21-5, 11-4 Big 12) vs. No. 10 TCU (25-3, 13-2 Big 12): 12:00 PM ET, ESPN2/ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: Folks, I have been waiting for this matchup all year. It’s absolutely perfect in terms of scheme and coaching chess matches. No one presses, forces turnovers and jams your passing lanes like Mark Kellogg’s Mountaineers. Nobody swings, picks and shoots like Mark Campbell’s Horned Frogs. Whatever there is to say about Sedona Prince off the court (and there is a lot as well as a critique about this staff for deciding that’s ancillary to winning), she will be on the floor and play a massive role in how this game plays out. I’m incredibly curious what assignment WVU’s defensive stopper JJ Quinerly pulls. Will it be Hailey Van Lith, who leads the team in assists and steals? Or Madison Conner, the Frogs’ sharpshooter averaging 45.7% from three? And how does Kellogg counter Prince? Whose size and fluidity off the pick n roll has made her indispensable to TCU’s dream season? Add in that a win here puts TCU a game back from Baylor with a matchup against the Bears still on the horizon? We got a game.
Must-Watch Score: 9.5/10
No. 3 UCLA (25-1, 13-1 Big Ten) vs. Iowa (18-8, 8-7 Big Ten): 2:00 PM ET, Peacock
Why it’s worth a watch: UCLA without Lauren Betts was an interesting watch but the Bruins got it done all the same at Pauley Pavilion. Now, they have her back in the lineup and head to Carver-Hawkeye Arena hoping to avoid the same fate as USC when they headed out to Iowa City. Cori Close’s team is in control of their own destiny. Keep winning and you either win the Big Ten regular season title or set up a de facto championship game against your crosstown rival on your home court (I’m rooting for this outcome, by the way). Iowa, currently feels comfortably in the Tournament as an 8 seed according to ESPN. But there’s still a desire to pull even with Nebraska and Oregon in the Big Ten standings as well as play spoiler once again in the confines of their consistently rocking arena. This one will be fun as hell and I expect a raucous environment. Given how the end of the game against USC went, this is another really good March/April simulation for UCLA to figure out how to win in a hostile environment.
Must-Watch Score: 9/10
No. 9 North Carolina (24-4, 12-3 ACC) vs. Louisville (19-7, 12-3 ACC): 2:00 PM ET, ESPN
Why it’s worth a watch: WHAT DID I SAY ABOUT JEFF WALZ!? BASKETBALL. HEISENBERG. He just keeps doing it, getting away with it, coaching up his teams…whatever you want to call it. The guy has felt dead in the water in the last few non-cons and yet his groups come around and start to hit their stride later in the year. A season after it felt like Louisville was going to start to take a back seat and slow down, they’re right back in the mix at the literal top of the conference. Jeff’s got the juice. Now, the question is about how good this team can be against opponents that are firmly in the second weekend or better tier. I’m hesitant to put Duke in that tier, Cal and Florida State might not be in it either. The teams that could be — Kentucky, UCLA, UConn, Oklahoma, NC State and Notre Dame — have all been losses so far. A win over UNC here would redefine our late season expectations for Louisville. Plus, I wanna use the Jesse Pinkman gif again. As for UNC, the big question is leading rebounder Alyssa Utsby, who didn’t travel with the team to Syracuse last week. She’s week to week with a knee injury. So keep an eye on the battle between Maria Gakdeng and Louisville’s Olivia Cochran down low.
Must-Watch Score: 8.5/10
Indiana (17-9, 9-6 Big Ten) vs. No. 22 Michigan State (19-7, 9-6 Big Ten): 2:00 PM ET, BTN
Why it’s worth a watch: Hand it to the Hoosiers, they’ve managed to steal a massive one from Ohio State ahead of a two game slate that includes Michigan State in East Lansing and No. 21 Maryland at home. Just a week ago, it seemed that Indiana was in real jeopardy of heading to the bubble after losing to Minnesota and Michigan. But beating Ohio State puts a totally new spin on what’s to come. Suddenly, Michigan State and Maryland — who are either tied with or a game ahead of IU in the Big Ten standings — seem ripe for the picking. The Spartans lost two close games to UCLA and USC which is hardly a reason for concern. Robyn Fralick’s crew, to me, is one of the most mentally resilient teams in the country and even with a loss here I’m really confident on their ceiling in the NCAA Tournament.
Must-Watch Score: 7.5/10
No. 6 South Carolina (24-3, 12-1 SEC) vs. Vanderbilt (19-8, 6-7 SEC): 3:00 PM, SECN+
Why it’s worth a watch: I fully expect a locked and loaded South Carolina now and for the rest of the year after the loss to UConn. I mean, their first response was beating poor Arkansas by 40 points this past week. But past the result, I’m actually watching this game for Vandy freshman Mikayla Blakes. One of the two frontrunners for National Freshman of the Year, Blakes is everything for the Commodores and more. Her scoring output has been insane and she’s quite literally won them a couple games alongside Khamil Pierre. But here, I’m curious how she handles Raven Johnson and the SC defense that Dawn Staley with throw at her. It feels a lot like when rookie quarterbacks would see Bill Belichick for the first time and the guy would just put them in a torture chamber for 60 minutes. I don’t expect Blakes to drop 60 in a win over the Gamecocks but I love how this is a pretty high level test to see how the freshman superstar handles some of the toughest on-ball defense and trickiest schematics she’ll see this year.
Must-Watch Score: 8/10
No. 25 Illinois (21-6, 11-5 Big Ten) vs. No. 4 USC (24-2, 14-1 Big Ten): 4:00 PM ET, FS1
Why it’s worth a watch: Win and we’re in, at least for USC. If the Women of Troy can get a home win against Illinois, they’ve done their part to set up Battle of LA Part 2 for a Big Ten Regular Season Championship. But, much like that game against Michigan State, this won’t come easy. Illinois, for my money, is probably one of the most underrated and underdiscussed teams in America. The job Shauna Green has done here is remarkable, taking them from a Big Ten bottom feeder under the previous two regimes to the Top 25 the Illini had become accustomed to under Theresa Grentz in the late 90’s. Adalia McKenzie, Genesis Bryant and Kendall Bostic have done everything for a team that is still looking for another signature win past that 66-65 victory over Maryland. USC has shown that they know how to pull out gutty wins but this is the place where you can’t look ahead just yet. If the Women of Troy do, Illinois can make you pay.
Must-Watch Score: 9/10
No. 7 LSU (26-2, 11-2 SEC) vs. No. 14 Kentucky (21-4, 10-3 SEC): 4:00 PM ET, ESPN
Why it’s worth a watch: This game had a lot more intrigue a couple weeks ago when both the Tigers and Wildcats took losses to effectively bump them out of the SEC regular season title race. But I still expect this to be a really enjoyable watch. Kenny Brooks has done a fantastic job building Kentucky into a relevant power in the SEC with the help of former Virginia Tech star Georgia Amoore and up-and-coming star Clara Strack. But it’s definitely felt clear at times that they are still just a shade below the biggest contenders. For starters, they’ve dropped two games that a team like LSU just doesn’t and their two Top 10 games have been rather lospided losses. With three games left — LSU, Tennessee and South Carolina — this is a really instructive stretch for us to find out what the Wildcats really are and what they’ll be when the bracket is unveiled. As for Kim Mulkey’s Tigers, we know what they are and I expect a win here. They may be out of the SEC regular season title race for now but I still expect to see this team deep in the NCAA Tournament and games like these are mental tests to prepare you for those games down the road.
Must-Watch Score: 9/10
Florida State (21-6, 11-4 ACC) vs. No. 20 Georgia Tech (21-6, 9-6 ACC): 4:00 PM ET, CW Network
Why it’s worth a watch: I’m a little surprised to see Georgia Tech still hanging on to an AP Top 20 ranking after their losses to Clemson (who, by the way, should not be ignored as Shawn Poppie might be building something down there) and NC State. Their final three games are something of good-on-good matchups with FSU, Cal and Stanford. Right now, these matchups are for tournament resumes and seeding. The Yellowjackets have slid since the start of ACC play and run the risk of sliding further. Now the big question for Florida State is the status of top scorer Ta’Niya Latson, who has been out for two games with an undisclosed injury. She’s listed as day-to-day but head coach Brooke Wyckoff’s cageyness around the nature of the injury is a little alarming. The Seminoles can beat the likes of Miami and Pitt without her but what about a top team like Georgia Tech? Especially as we round the turn into tournament season? I guess we’ll find out.
Must-Watch Score: 7.5/10
George Mason (23-4, 13-3 A-10) vs. St. Joe’s (20-6, 11-4 A-10): 4:00 PM ET, ESPNU
Why it’s worth a watch: Richmond has effectively wrapped up the A-10 race, with a 1.5 game lead over George Mason heading into the final ten days or so. But don’t discount the conference as a whole. This league saw its’ 2, 3 and 4 seed lose in the conference tournament last season while the year prior its’ 3 seed, St. Louis, stole a bid. So just because the Spiders may win the regular season title doesn’t mean you won’t see George Mason or St. Joe’s in the NCAA Tournament instead. Past that component, both of these teams are firmly on the bubble though they are on the outside looking in from a projection standpoint. Every game and every win counts and this one feels like the type of game that, shy of a conference title run, could bounce one or the other out of bubble contention. That’s enough to watch for. A-10 chaos is beautiful chaos. Embrace it and enjoy it.
Must-Watch Score: 7/10
Monday, February 24th
Howard (15-9, 8-1 MEAC) vs. Coppin State (16-9, 7-2 MEAC): 5:30 PM ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: This game, to me, is more about Howard than it is about Coppin. Part of me expects the Eagles to be 16-10 and 7-3 in conference by the time this game is over but they still can spoil the Bison’s season. Howard, who lost their first meeting to Norfolk State, still has a chance to pull even with them if they win out. The two teams meet in their regular season finale and if the lead is just a game, it makes the implications pretty massive. You’ll get to see Lai’la Lawrence and Angel Jones again but you also catch the opposing tandem of Zennia Thomas and Destiny Howell. It’s a big one for the MEAC race and one that can serve as a nice early evening appetizer for the Big 12 power matchup later in the night.
Must-Watch Score: 7/10
No. 19 Baylor (23-5, 13-2 Big 12) vs. No. 12 Kansas State (24-4, 12-3 Big 12): 7:00 PM ET, ESPN2/ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: Kansas State has a shot to really throw a wrench into the neat narratives and tiebreaker math of the Big 12. A win over Baylor would draw the two even at 13-3 in conference with Baylor taking on TCU, who could either be a game ahead or tied, going into the final days of regular season play. But the question is if they have the capability to do that opposite a Baylor team that has figured out how to impose its will inside without giving up their ability to shoot outside. Temira Poindexter has been great in relief for the injured Ayoka Lee but how will she match up against Aaronette Vonleh inside? Moreover, how will Serena Sundell be played against a Bears backcourt that can throw multiple options at her? If both teams take care of their Saturday business, this a wonderful must-watch on a Monday. Set your calendar.
Must-Watch Score: 8.5/10
Why is GCU at CBU not on this list? Lopes magic number is two and they're playing at a place where they have one win in the previous four years of the Miller era...