WNBA Playoff Previews: Game Two, Day One
A win tonight could send Atlanta and Las Vegas on to the next round of the WNBA Playoffs. What should you be watching for? We break it all down here...
After a packed slate of four games on Sunday, Game Two of the opening round of the WNBA Playoffs is split between Tuesday and Wednesday. Tonight, the Atlanta Dream and Las Vegas Aces hope to close out the Indiana Fever and Seattle Storm, respectively, to advance to the next round.
To get you ready to watch, we’ll have game-by-game previews every day of the playoffs. The matchups you need to keep an eye on, what players need to shine and what’s at stake for everyone involved. Be sure to come back around in the evening and join us on YouTube for our live postgame shows where we’ll be discussing everything that happened on the floor that night.
Let’s dive in!
Atlanta Dream @ Indiana Fever
ATL Leads Series 1-0
7:30 PM ET, ESPN
A Quick Overview:
Indiana’s season is on the line but luckily they’re at home in Gainbridge Fieldhouse so I expect a spirited fight from the Fever. Expect a raucous atmosphere as this is the first time Indiana will be hosting a playoff game since 2016. While they made the playoffs last season, the format had not yet been changed to a 1-1-1 and so Indiana had to play both their first round games in Connecticut.
This time around, the comfy confines of Gainbridge might help the Fever force a Game 3 in this series. It is worth noting, however, that they are just 13-9 at home, a below average record relative to the other seven playoff teams. Conversely, Atlanta is 14-8 on the road. During the regular season, the Dream and Fever split the series in Gainbridge but haven’t met there since July 11th (an 82-99 Indiana win). It’s also worth noting, in case you want to try and look into past matchups as an indicator of what can happen tonight, that Caitlin Clark played in both prior matchups in Gainbridge so the team makeup is markedly different this time around. Since August, Atlanta is 14-3 overall and 6-1 on the road.
Make-or-Break Matchup:
Indiana’s three point shooting struggles on the road are pretty well documented at this point. According to WNBA Stats (the league’s official scoring site), the Fever are averaging just 30.9% from beyond the arc when away from Gainbridge. When they are at home, however, that average jumps to 38.5%. For a team that shot 2/15 from deep in the Game One loss, I expect to see a statistical progression back to center. We’ve seen it in the regular season but when the crowd gets into it after a couple big threes, Indiana is pretty hard to stop. Might we see that happen again tonight?
For Atlanta, continuing to frustrate Aliyah Boston defensively is the key. In Game One, they kept the All-Star center mostly contained as she shot just 3/9 from the field. Dream head coach Karl Smesko threw a variety of looks at her, including a combination of Maya Caldwell, whose rotations frustrated the Fever all night, and Bri Jones, who has lived up to the billing as Atlanta’s centerpiece big. If they can continue to do that tonight, Indiana’s options are limited.
Players To Watch (Indiana):
Boston, as we mentioned, has to have a big game if the Fever want to stay alive in this one. But the other player that absolutely needs to contribute more in the scoring department is Natasha Howard. The former WNBA champion and multi-time All-Star went just 2/7 from the field, turned the ball over four times and had four fouls in Game One. The Dream are going to throw the house at defending Boston, so your splash signing in the offseason needs to step up now. It’s pretty much what they brought her to Indiana to do.
I don’t foresee Lexie Hull going 3/13 like she did in the opener, especially in Gainbridge. She’s a player that really seems to feed off the crowd and needs just one shot from deep to fall to get into rhythm in front of her fans. Kelsey Mitchell’s was the lone bright spot in Game One but she’ll probably need another performance to ensure that Indiana can force a third game.
Players To Watch (Atlanta):
Realistically, you just need to do what you did on Sunday if you’re Atlanta. Allisha Gray didn’t have the most efficient game, shooting 5/16 from the field, but managed to get to the line 10 times to finish with 20 points. Naz Hillmon, our No Cap Space Sixth Player of the Year, poured in 16 points on 5/7 shooting while Bri Jones played excellent interior defense to keep the Fever from getting back into the game.
Mind you, that all came without a major bench performance. Smesko kept his rotations tight, only really utilizing six players in the minutes that mattered, and I anticipate he’ll do the same here. He knows that he has a talent advantage from starter-to-starter so he’ll likely try to ride them to a win here. Interestingly, Brittney Griner only played eight minutes in Game One. Do we see a bit more of her potentially in this game? It’s worth keeping tabs on.
Las Vegas Aces @ Seattle Storm
LV Leads Series 1-0
9:30 PM ET, ESPN
A quick overview:
Las Vegas looks borderline unbeatable right now and Game One was a blowout pretty early on. Powered by a Michelob Ultra crowd that wasn’t a sellout but sounded like it on television, the Aces jumped out to an early first quarter lead and went wire-to-wire on the Storm. Given how well Vegas has played since the beginning of August, I expect them to cruise again. What’s particularly terrifying for the league is it feels like the Aces have found their shot from deep (43.9% as a team through September) and are winning the non A’ja Wilson minutes through some great Jewell Loyd performances.
Seattle is capable of competing with any team on any given night but the lack of offensive cohesion, coupled with less-than-coordinated foul hunting doesn’t give me a lot of hope as to how this will go. Even worse for the Storm, they statistically shoot better on the road than they do at home, particularly from three. In fact, all stats point to Seattle being better in damn near every category away from Climate Pledge Arena. Doesn’t sound too promising on the surface but this team has the individual talent to be able to fight. We’ll see just how much this evening.
Make-or-Break Matchup:
I don’t know how you try and defend A’ja Wilson. Even trying to junk it and box-and-one her doesn’t feel like it would work with how well everyone else on the team is shooting. So if you’re Seattle, I think the message has to be “A’ja is going to go for 30 or more, so try and clamp everyone else”. In Game One, they managed to keep Chelsea Gray from scoring a ton but the veteran point guard really didn’t need to. Jackie Young shot 6/9, Dana Evans went 5/11 and Jewell Loyd finished 5/9 from the field. That’s realistically all you need if you’re Vegas. Defensively, you need to be better against the supporting cast.
On the other end, the Aces did a wonderful job making the Storm work on the interior. Especially in the first half there were just too many shot chucks or attempts to draw fouls by Skylar Diggins in particular and you can’t do that again. Dominique Malonga got her ‘Welcome to the Playoffs’ moment, being swatted into the fourth dimension by Wilson and starting 1/8 from the field before finishing with 12 points and 11 boards on 4/11 shooting. Malonga, specifically, looked a little shook by the moment. Early on in the matchup, she missed some easy layups in pretty dramatic fashion. If the Storm want a chance to win, they’ll need her to score inside especially if Ezi Magbegor is going to be doing her best Kiah Stokes impression.
Players To Watch (Seattle):
As I mentioned, Malonga’s efficiency inside is going to be extremely important especially if they get Wilson into early foul trouble again. An underdiscussed piece of Game One was A’ja picking up two quick ones and heading to the bench but because the Aces started so fast it almost didn’t matter. Skylar Diggins looked completely sped up in the first quarter of the first game and I expect so much more from a seasoned vet who has been in positions like these multiple times. If those two manage an efficient day, this game will be significantly closer.
More than that, Seattle as a team needs to do a better job of drawing contact and getting to the line. There were too many possessions where it felt like Diggins et. al were baiting and, even to the untrained eye watching on TV, it was pretty egregious. If the goal is to get the Aces in trouble, the Storm backcourt needs to get more downhill and really draw contact.
Players To Watch (Las Vegas):
NaLyssa Smith finished with 11 points and 9 rebounds and has been exactly what Vegas has needed since their trade with Dallas. The missing piece of this Aces frontcourt for the last year and change has been a forward to pair with A’ja that doesn’t need to give you 25 points a night. They just need to keep the defense honest enough that they can’t just easily collapse 2 or 3 interior defenders on the reiging MVP and not have to worry about getting burned by anyone else. If Smith continues to be a threat, even on limited shot attempts, the floor continues to open for A’ja to do A’ja things.
Past that, I’m really just looking for the Aces to continue to do what they’ve been doing. Kierstan Bell has been hot-and-cold but hasn’t needed to be a pure scorer. She does her job and does it well, the shots are just an added bonus. Off the bench, Jewell Loyd is the player to watch. Since her move out of the starting lineup, the veteran guard has found new life and tortured opposing coaches by giving them something to think about when the starters come off the floor. If she continues to give you 10-15 points and a couple big threes, it’ll be a wrap from the Emerald City.