The Rookie of the Year Race is Over. Now Paige Bueckers is Pushing For First Team All-WNBA

After a record breaking 44 point performance from Paige Bueckers, the most fascinating All-WNBA conversation now comes into focus.

To quote political analyst Dave Wasserman, ‘I’ve seen enough’.

The Rookie of the Year race is over.

Paige Bueckers, on the heels of a historic 44 point night in which she shot 17/21 from the field, just locked it up.

Sorry, Chauny.

On the heels of that performance and the knowledge that the Dallas Wings are officially eliminated from the playoffs, another interesting conversation emerges. How much do we value team success in All-WNBA discussions? Because the degree to which you do will make or break Paige’s candidacy to be on the First-Team as a rookie. Let’s lay out the case…

The Case For Paige Bueckers As A First-Team All-WNBA Selection

Let’s take a look at just the counting stats and stack Paige up against the other contenders…

Kelsey Plum: 20.4 PPG, 3.3 RPG, 5.9 APG

Kelsey Mitchell: 20.4 PPG, 1.9 RPG, 3.4 APG

Paige Bueckers: 19.7 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 5.3 APG

Sabrina Ionescu: 19.1 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 5.4 APG

Allisha Gray: 18.5 PPG, 5.5 RPG, 3.7 APG

If you’re voting on just the baseline averages, Paige is in the mix statistically. Yes, Dallas is a very bad team. They don’t win a lot of games and have a gaping hole in their frontcourt that takes them from a team that has the capacity to compete with some teams to a group that is on a collision course with next year’s first overall draft pick. But Bueckers has spent this August asserting herself as a top option with Arike Ogunbowale out. Her usage has ticked up to 27.7% (her highest of the year) and, as a result, her August averages are impressive. 23.9 points, 4.7 assists and 4.4 rebounds per game on a season high 63.1% true shooting. In short, she’s been a more aggressive scorer while improving her activity on the boards and maintaining her ability to get her teammates involved.

Her net rating, assist to turnover ratio, rebound percentage, turnover ratio and effective field goal percentage have also all improved since the All-Star break. Keep in mind, this is a team that really has no interior presence to speak of. We haven’t seen Paige operate with an elite WNBA big yet and I anticipate that those numbers will only jump in future years. While other contenders on this list have had dud games, Bueckers has been remarkably consistent. She hasn’t had a single game where she’s registered less than ten points or 0 rebounds/assists. Every single game, regardless of outcome, she manages to contribute on both sides of the ball.

You can make the team success/impact on winning argument, sure. But conversely, has someone like Skylar or Sabrina consistently made those kinds of impacts? Outside of Gray (whom I think is the only lock among the guards for First Team All-WNBA), everyone else has been up-and-down this year. Plum, Mitchell, Ionescu and Diggins have had games where they’ve played their team in and out of them. While Paige may not be turning the fortunes of the Dallas franchise around immediately, I think it’s important to consider that she doesn’t have an elite big (which I think is more vital to a rookie guard than an elite backcourt mate) and that she hasn’t necessarily cost them games either.

Finally, with regard to the team success, players finishing under .500 and making First-Team isn’t unheard of. Skylar Diggins has done it twice in the last ten years (2014 with 12-22 Tulsa and 2022 with 15-21 Phoenix), for instance. In fact, making the playoffs isn’t necessarily a requirement either. Paige’s teammate Arike Ogunbowale was selected in 2020 despite an 8-14 record and missing the playoffs. Angel McCoughtry did the same with a 15-19 Atlanta Dream as well. So if you are looking for historical pretext, you’ve got it here.

The Case Against Paige Bueckers As A First-Team All-WNBA Selection

To me, this all hinges on whether or not you think team success is a required metric for First-Team All-WNBA. And, to that end, Paige hasn’t gotten it done. The Wings were eliminated from the playoffs on Wednesday night and, even with the 44 point performance in mind, Paige still passed up the final shot which gave L.A. a chance to take the win. If you want to be considered a top five player in the league, there are certain intangibles that we do expect. For all the arrows Kelsey Plum has taken this year, she does have that idiosyncratic trait that many greats have: she wants to take every final shot. I’m willing to hear out the argument that Paige is kind Lebron-esque in that the best look is more important than her getting the best shot.

Factor in, for example, her ‘clutch’ splits according to the WNBA’s in-house statistic site. In the last five minutes of games within five points, her offensive ratings is 89.1 with a true shooting percentage of 53.4% on 37.5% usage. Compare that to, say, Kelsey Plum, whose offensive ratings is 129.3 with a 60.9% true shooting percentage on 36.1% usage. It’s hair splitting but this is how close the margins are in races like this.

Additionally, while the counting stats point to a defensive presence (1.7 steals per game), she hasn’t been as solid as I expected on that end. In fact, the difference in her defensive rating is stark in wins (93.1) vs. losses (110.9). She’s been an active presence on the boards but I do think teams have picked on her a bit in the way that you can’t for someone like Skylar Diggins or Kelsey Mitchell.

Perhaps most importantly, whether or not all of her talent translates to wins is the big question and one many detractors will hang their hat on. Removing the 2020 COVID season in which Arike Ogunbowale was named a first-teamer despite Dallas not making the playoffs with an 8-14 record, it’s been ten years since someone (Angel McCoughtry, 2015) was selected despite their team not making the playoffs. Given how much the league has grown in the last decade, there is fair precedent here that the quality of players has gotten to a point where one’s ability to influence team success matters.

What do you think? Let us know in the comments!