The 'Ball-Knowers' NCAA Weekly Watch Guide: Week of Feb 24-28
The last full week of regular season NCAA women's basketball is upon us. Who commands your attention on the TV guide? We got a guide for you here as we round the turn into conference tourney season!
At No Cap Space WBB, we want you to know ball. We want you to be able to look at other folks who may not know ball and not look down on them but instead educate them because you do, in fact, know ball. But during the college basketball season that can be hard. There’s, at any point, 10+ games happening on the same day in a variety of time windows.
So on Mondays and Fridays, we will be releasing what we call the ‘Ball-Knowers’ NCAA Watch Guide. Essentially, it’s a handful of games that our staff picks for each day based on a couple different metrics: how competitive the game might be, if there’s a player we like or find interesting involved, if there’s a team to watch or if the game has implications for NCAA selection in March. It’s basically a guide to help you see the forest through the trees so that by the spring you’ll have a good idea of who is a threat to make a run in the Dance.
We are officially here, everyone. This is the last true week of regular season NCAA women’s basketball. It feels like just yesterday that it was November and we were rolling out these watch guides for the first time. We hope you’ve enjoyed having a place that helps narrow down the broadcast list a bit and we plan on keeping it going until we hit conference tournament season. So, with precious few times left this year, let’s head to the guide…
Monday, February 24th
No. 19 Baylor (23-5, 13-2 Big 12) vs. No. 12 Kansas State (24-4, 12-3 Big 12): 7:00 PM ET, ESPN2/ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: Kansas State has a shot to really throw a wrench into the neat narratives and tiebreaker math of the Big 12. A win over Baylor would draw the two even at 13-3 in conference with Baylor taking on TCU, who could either be a game ahead or tied, going into the final days of regular season play. But the question is if they have the capability to do that opposite a Baylor team that has figured out how to impose its will inside without giving up their ability to shoot outside. Temira Poindexter has been great in relief for the injured Ayoka Lee but how will she match up against Aaronette Vonleh inside? Moreover, how will Serena Sundell be played against a Bears backcourt that can throw multiple options at her? If both teams take care of their Saturday business, this a wonderful must-watch on a Monday. Set your calendar.
Must-Watch Score: 8.5/10
Tuesday, February 25th
UTSA (23-3, 14-1 American) vs. Tulane (16-10, 9-6 American): 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: It’s a pretty slim set of pickings on Tuesday so this might be a time to tune into a game you might not think much of either way. Not only do you get a somewhat interesting UTSA team that very well could be in the NCAA Tournament, you also get to check in on new Tulane head coach Ashley Langford and her assistant Rena Wakama. The Roadrunners are fascinating because this is one hell of a ‘from nothing’ build from former Texas head coach Karen Aston. She was let go after the 2019-2020 season after making it to the second weekend of the NCAA Tournament four times between 2014 and 2018. Now, she’s at UTSA and Jordyn Jenkins might be AAC Player of the Year. It’s a tale of two programs on the rise in very different ways and two teams that could make noise next year. Think of this like catching the next big artist in a random bar at open mic. You get to say you were first if their upward trends extend into next year.
Must-Watch Score: 6.5/10
Wednesday, February 26th
Davidson (17-11, 12-4 A-10) vs. Richmond (24-5, 15-1 A-10): 6:00 PM ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: Davidson is quietly one of the best stories in women’s basketball this year. They finished the 2023-2024 season with an 18-8 record and, because they had so many injuries, cancelled the remainder of the season on March 1st. Now, just a year later, they’ve rattled off seven straight wins heading into their penultimate matchup of the regular season against Richmond. The Spiders will probably be one of the (possibly) two A-10 representatives at the NCAA Tournament this year and there’s a couple fun matchups here. Maggie Doogan has had a spectacular year, leading Richmond in points, assists, rebounds and blocks while getting some backcourt help from Racehl Ulstrom. I expect a Richmond win here but Davidson could pull off a stunner.
Must-Watch Score: 7/10
No. 23 Michigan St. (20-7, 10-6 Big Ten) vs. No. 12 Ohio St. (23-4, 12-4 Big Ten): 7:00 PM ET, B1G+
Why it’s worth a watch: To me, this is going to be Michigan State’s biggest game since their lost to Maryland 72-66 back in January. For a lot of this season, the Spartans have lost to teams demonstrably better than them or been handed an upset. There isn’t a lot of Top 20-ish good-on-good on their schedule in Big Ten play. It seems to me that the tier they belong in is with Maryland, Illinois and Ohio State. So far, MSU has beaten one, lost to another and now gets the Buckeyes. The rosters kind of match well, with a lot of versatile wing players and excellent guards but not a dominant centerpiece big (which has been an issue for both teams). Ohio State probably needs a win here to get them back on the right track after losses to the SoCal teams and Indiana. I’m not sure either of them have third weekend ceilings but this feels like a fun Sweet 16 caliber matchup.
Must-Watch Score: 8.5/10
Utah (21-6, 12-4 Big 12) vs. No. 18 West Virginia (21-6, 11-5 Big 12): 7:00 PM ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: Any outside shot Utah had at sneaking into the Big 12 regular season title conversation was nixed when the Utes lost to Oklahoma State at home. They still have a top four seed heading into the conference tournament but West Virginia is right on their heels. No doubt the Mountaineers will want to get right after a frankly embarrassing loss to TCU. WVU has some great guards but their lack of bigs was exposed in a big way. The only saving grace for them is that Utah’s centerpiece big, Maye Toure, is inconsistent when it comes to finishing around the rim. It feels like the Utes ceiling is pretty well defined but a win against West Virginia can help us figure out whether or not they have ‘get hot and beat a better team than them’ vibes the way we thought they did after the Notre Dame upset.
Must-Watch Score: 8/10
Iowa (18-9, 8-8 Big Ten) vs. Michigan (19-8, 10-6 Big Ten): 7:00 PM ET, B1G+
Why it’s worth a watch: Syla Swords may not be in the middle of the National Freshman of the Year discussion but she’s certainly an All-Freshman teamer that can be an All-American as she develops. To see this group at Michigan, primarily composed of guards and a 6’3 Jordan Hobbs (who is also listed as a guard!) punch above their weight has been pretty remarkable. They end the year with two big matchups against Iowa and Illinois. The Hawkeyes have to be tired of moral victories because my goodness is their record not indicative of their ability. Nine losses in total and every single one by single digits. Four of them were by a possession or less. It’s truly wild because the Hawkeyes are a couple of coin flip type plays away from being a Top 15 unit in the country. But at some point, you have to start winning those games. For the most part, they’ve managed against like-for-like competition pretty well. This is another example and a game I’m sure will be a great watch.
Must-Watch Score: 8/10
Buffalo (22-4, 11-3 MAC) vs. Toledo (19-6, 10-4 MAC): 7:00 PM ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: Depending on what Ball State does in the MAC conference tournament, this may be one of your last shots to watch two of the more interesting mid-majors this year. Chelis Watson’s scoring output has gone down for Buffalo but she still averages 20.3 points and 5.3 rebounds per game while shooting just 29.2% from 3 point range. Despite the issues from distance, she’s paced Buffalo to a 22-4 record and a projected 2 seed in the conference tournament. Toledo, on the other hand, is the only MAC team that has the distinction of beating Ball State in regular season play. That game was, however, followed up by an upset loss to Bowling Green, but that happens from time to time. The MAC has been an underratedly good watch this year and I expect that to continue in this one.
Must-Watch Score: 7.5/10
Washington (16-12, 7-9 Big Ten) vs. Minnesota (20-8, 8-8 Big Ten): 8:00 PM ET, B1G+
Why it’s worth a watch: This is a big time battle on the bubble because I really don’t know how you’ll be able to justify a selection for Washington if they lose 10 Big Ten games. Sure, there’s no egregiously bad losses on the schedule but outside of an upset win against Illinois there just isn’t a lot here that screams Tournament team. And that’s a bummer because I really like their core. Elle Ladine, Dalayah Daniels and Sayvia Sellers have been extremely fun players when the machine is running right. Minnesota is buoyed by a better looking (although not better ranked) non-con and faces a similar issue of “who exactly have you beaten besides Illinois?” Both teams need this one for conference tournament seedings and more. If I’m doing bubble selections for the committee this year, this feels like a make or break game for either of these two teams.
Must-Watch Score: 7/10
Thursday, February 27th
No. 22 Creighton (23-4, 15-1 Big East) vs. No. 5 UConn (26-3, 16-0 Big East): 7:00 PM ET, CBS Sports Network
Why it’s worth a watch: Credit to Creighton: they’ve done all the right things to get them into a position where they can theoretically fight for a share of the Big East regular season title. Their only loss came to UConn, 72-61 and everything else has been a breeze. But I’d argue the best shot to dethrone the Huskies once in conference play was that first fixture in Nebraska. Now, you have to go to Connecticut in what very well could be one of the final sendoff games for Paige Bueckers. Everything will come down to Lauren Jensen (18.3 PPG, 4.1 RPG, 3.9 APG) and Morgan Maly (17.5 PPG, 5.7 RPG) and if they can singlehandedly keep the Blue Jays in this one. On the other end of the equation, UConn is absolutely rolling in a matter befitting one of the best programs in the nation. I fully expect another big Sarah Strong game as the Huskies attack the paint and win with authority. But still, anything is possible and that’s what we’re tuning in for!
Must-Watch Score: 9/10
No. 8 North Carolina (25-4, 13-3 ACC) vs. No. 16 Duke (21-7, 12-4 ACC): 7:00 PM ET, ESPN
Why it’s worth a watch: Folks, there is a good chance this might be some truly nasty hoops. Just ugly, backyard, junkyard, half yard type basketball. Duke and UNC have a knack for this, mind you. The final score of their first game in January was 53-46. In overtime. Regulation ended with a score of 40-40 and a halftime score of 16-16. Just heinous basketball. To me, North Carolina has established the bonafides this year. Sure, is there a question on if they can beat the UConn’s or Notre Dame’s of the world? Absolutely. But I think they’ve comfortably cemented themselves as a Sweet 16 or even Elite 8 unit. Duke, on the other hand, I just am not sure about. It’s just kind of good but not great and that’s the way it’s been under Kara Lawson in Durham. What does that mean in the long term? I’m not sure but I know, from a narrative standpoint, she could really use this one.
Must-Watch Score: 9/10
No. 11 Tennessee (21-6, 8-6 SEC) vs. No. 15 Kentucky (21-5, 10-4 SEC): 7:00 PM ET, SEC Network
Why it’s worth a watch: Fun guard matchup here. Georgia Amoore, while leading a roster that still might lag a bit behind the cream of the SEC crop, is still as electric as ever at Kentucky. It feels like this could be a great game because both rosters are imperfect. Kim Caldwell and Kenny Brooks are in the middle of building programs up and thus their teams aren’t fully created in their image just yet. While those imperfections mean that they won’t be winning the SEC regular season title this year, it still means that they’re good, fun, talented and willing to take some on-floor risk because 'hey, why not?’. Amoore gets another elite guard to take on in Talaysia Cooper which can help the former’s rising draft stock. Cooper herself could find her way up big boards in future years off the strength of this year. Another big game could help cement her as the Lady Vols next superstar…
Must-Watch Score: 9/10
No. 19 Maryland (21-6, 11-5 Big Ten) vs. Indiana (17-10, 9-7 Big Ten): 7:00 PM ET, Peacock
Why it’s worth a watch: Despite wins over Michigan and Northwestern, it feels like Maryland has slowed down a little bit in terms of where we thought they’d be. Those three straight losses to Texas, Ohio State and UCLA surely took some wind out of the sails but it’s worth nothing that two of those games came without Shyanne Sellers. The Terps, for their part, are comfortably in the Tournament but the same can’t yet be said of Indiana. Their wins over Ohio State and Baylor are providing nice cover but it feels like they’re set if they can beat Maryland here. Plus, you get some fun versatile guard/wings in this game from Yardon Garzon and Sydney Parrish on one end to Kaylene Smikle, Sellers and Saylor Poffenbarger on the other.
Must-Watch Score: 8/10
No. 1 Texas (26-2, 12-1 SEC) vs. Mississippi State (19-9, 6-8 SEC): 7:30 PM, SECN+
Why it’s worth a watch: I’m not watching this so much to see how competitive it’ll be. I have a feeling Texas will roll but I’m more curious about Mississippi State. All year they’ve just sort of been…there. No noteworthy wins, a pretty light non-con outside of that win against Utah, and a generally unremarkable conference slate. Charlie Creme has them listed as a last four bye in his updated ESPN bracketology but I just don’t see it. Maybe a competitive game against Texas can change my mind here but there just isn’t a lot with this team that makes me feel like they’re a value add in March at the expense of Harvard or George Mason, for instance.
Must-Watch Score: 7.5/10
Grand Canyon (25-2, 12-0 WAC) vs. UT Arlington (14-10, 9-4 WAC): 7:30 PM ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: I’ve held Grand Canyon off a couple of watch guides because I’ve just been convinced that they’ll roll their opponents, whether that be Cal Baptist or Tarleton State. UT Arlington is the one team I’ve been curious about in terms of competitiveness and the Lopes beat them by 13 all the same. In fairness to UTA, that’s the closest anyone has gotten to GCU in about a month. If you’re interested in a mid-major that has a real shot of being a Cinderella this year, it’s this Grand Canyon team. Molly Miller is building a bit of a juggernaut down in Phoenix and is making Arizona inroads with the two flagship universities having down years. Trinity San Antonio and Alyssa Durazo-Frescas have been a dynamic guard tandem this year and deserve your eyeballs before we get into March. They feel very Gonzaga/South Dakota State coded this year.
Must-Watch Score: 7/10
No. 24 Florida State (22-6, 12-4 ACC) vs. No. 3 Notre Dame (24-3, 15-1 ACC): 8:00 PM ET, ACC Network
Why it’s worth a watch: Ta’Niya Latson remains a question mark for Florida State, which opens up a lot of questions about the Seminoles ceiling as a team heading into March. But somehow, even with her out of the lineup, junior guard Sydney Bowles stepped into her place and dropped 32 points in a massive win over No. 20 Georgia Tech over the weekend. That’s not to say they won’t need Latson and O’Mariah Gordon (who was out vs. Tech as well) when they take on Notre Dame. This game favors pace and could be a really fun matchup in the same way ND - NC State was. The Wolfpack, to me, have a higher floor than the Seminoles so I don’t expect Florida State to win in an upset. But I like the idea that this game has pace, shooting and the possibility of another interesting name stepping up when their number is called.
Must-Watch Score: 8/10
No. 6 South Carolina (25-3, 13-1 SEC) vs. Ole Miss (18-8, 9-5 SEC): 9:00 PM ET, ESPN
Why it’s worth a watch: Very good chance we get some Duke - UNC nasty hoops here. Dawn Staley has never seemed to have an issue with Coach Yo’s teams and I don’t expect that to change now. The Rebs are, however, fighting for a top 16 seed and the chance to host some early round games in Oxford come March. A win over South Carolina pretty much locks you into that position. Conversely, SC also is fighting to get back a one seed so there are stakes here for the Gamecocks as well. Madison Scott is going to be a key for every South Carolina defender while the big question will be who comes off the Ole Miss bench to defend Joyce Edwards and Milaysia Fulwiley?
Must-Watch Score: 8/10
No. 7 LSU (27-2, 12-2 SEC) vs. No. 20 Alabama (22-6, 9-5 SEC): 9:00 PM ET, SEC Network
Why it’s worth a watch: LSU may be out of the regular season title race but their win over Kentucky indicates to me that the floor and ceiling of this Tiger team can still be pretty high. Their two losses this year, it should be noted, were true road games against sellout crowds in South Carolina and Texas. To write off a team at 27-2 would be as misguided as writing off SC after the UConn game. There’s a whole other season to play here and I’m sure that these next two games will feel like simulated first or second round pressure. Alabama is exactly the type of team that can scare a higher seed in the second round. They went blow for blow with Tennessee last week and really have only looked outmatched by (surprise) Texas and South Carolina this year. I think this one will be closer than people think.
Must-Watch Score: 8.5/10
Georgia Tech (21-7. 9-7 ACC) vs. Cal (22-7, 10-6 ACC): 10:00 PM ET, ACC Extra
Why it’s worth a watch: This one is the ACC version of Michigan State vs. Indiana. Cal and Georgia Tech are two really solid teams who have gotten a signature win here or there but still feel like units somewhere between the first round and the Sweet 16. Both have shown the ability to be upset (both by Clemson, for some reason) but I’d say that Cal has done a better job keeping their head above water in ACC play. The watchability in this one lies in the good-on-good concept. The most competitive games are the ones between evenly matched rosters with similar records. Plus, we get Georgia Tech’s Kara Dunn and Dani Carnegie vs. Cal’s Lulu Twidale and Ioanna Krimili. That’s sets the floor at 7/10 out the door. Basically, if you burning the midnight oil on the east coast, tap into some after dark while we have it this year.
Must-Watch Score: 7.5/10
Friday, February 28th
Princeton (18-6, 9-2 Ivy) vs. Harvard (20-3, 9-2 Ivy): 8:00 PM ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: I don’t foresee Columbia dropping one of their last three games to Brown, Yale, or Cornell. But if they do then the biggest winner will be the team that makes it out of this matchup unscathed. Beyond the Ivy League implications, this is one of the best pure mid-major matchups we’ll get this year. The team oriented Tigers approach built in the wake of Madison St. Rose’s injury and a Harvard team that ebbs and flows as Harmoni Turner does. It’s one of the last chances you’ll get to see both these teams this regular season and both have more than earned the right to have you tune in on a Friday night especially if you don’t have anything else more pressing going on…
Must-Watch Score: 8.5/10
Strack is a walking double double if she can avoid foul trouble and play over 25 mins a game.