The 'Ball-Knowers' NCAA Weekend Watch Guide: Weekend of March 1 - March 3
It's the final weekend of the 'Ball-Knowers' Watch Guide and we go out with two 10/10 matchups before we enter NCAA Women's Basketball Tournament season.
At No Cap Space WBB, we want you to know ball. We want you to be able to look at other folks who may not know ball and not look down on them but instead educate them because you do, in fact, know ball. But during the college basketball season that can be hard. There’s, at any point, 10+ games happening on the same day in a variety of time windows.
So on Mondays and Fridays, we will be releasing what we call the ‘Ball-Knowers’ NCAA Watch Guide. Essentially, it’s a handful of games that our staff picks for each day based on a couple different metrics: how competitive the game might be, if there’s a player we like or find interesting involved, if there’s a team to watch or if the game has implications for NCAA selection in March. It’s basically a guide to help you see the forest through the trees so that by the spring you’ll have a good idea of who is a threat to make a run in the Dance.
Can you believe it? This is the last Watch Guide of the NCAA women’s basketball season. From here, we enter conference tournament play (and will have plenty of content centered around that) and at that point the Watch Guide will be a bit superfluous. We’ll still have daily pieces that will help you organize your bracket viewing but as far as a day to day schedule? This is it.
One of the mission statements we have at No Cap Space WBB is wanting to be advocates for every level of this game. It could be easy to pull in viewers by hanging on to brand name schools or players but this is a labor of love from the five of us, truly. We love women’s basketball and are from different corners of the country that gives us each a unique and nationwide perspective. What the Watch Guide, and other pieces of content, are to us is a chance to get you as excited about some of these games as we are. Old fan or new, everyone is welcome here as long as they bring an open mind and good faith. So, one last time this season, let’s put you on game ahead of a busy weekend.
Saturday, March 1
Minnesota (20-9, 8-9 Big Ten) vs. No. 23 Michigan State (20-8, 10-7 Big Ten): 2:00 PM ET, B1G+
Why it’s worth a watch: Here’s an idea of how logjammed the Big Ten’s ‘robust middle’ really is. Three teams are tied for 6th at 10-7 in conference play, three more are tied for 9th at 9-8 and two more tied for 11th at 8-9. Michigan State could finish their conference slate anywhere from 7th (maybe 6th, depending on Illinois) to 11th. That’s a hell of a lot of variance for the conference tournament. Minnesota, on the other hand, is still trying to bolster a bubble case, while trying to see if they can leap out of one of the lowest seeds in the Big Ten bracket. I like the size advantage Sparty has here with Grace VanSlooten but the Minnesota guards from Grace Grocholski to Amaya Battle are crafty on one end and pesky on the other.
Must-Watch Score: 7.5/10
Richmond (25-5, 16-1 A-10) vs. St. Joe’s (21-7, 12-5 A-10): 2:00 PM ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: St. Joe’s has had a bit of a slide to wrap the year, losing three of their last four to Richmond, Rhode Island and Dayton. But also within that four game stretch is a dominant 14 point win against George Mason. The difference I see is that the losses were all road games decided by ten points or less while the GMU win was a home matchup. Here, the Hawks get the Spiders at home. Will that be enough to stop Maggie Doogan, who is the frontrunner for A-10 Player of the Year? I’m not sure. Doogan is averaging 17 points, 7 rebounds, 3.6 assists and 1.1 blocks per game. All of those are team bests, in case you’re keeping score. This wouldn’t be the win that makes a true narrative difference but a victory and second straight A-10 regular season championship would affirm Aaron Rousell has arguably one of the best mid-major coaches in the nation, if not one of the best program builders in women’s college basketball.
Must-Watch Score: 7/10
Army (21-5, 13-3 Patriot) vs. Lehigh (23-5, 14-2 Patriot): 2:00 PM ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: The military industrial complex vs. Cathy Engelbert: take your pick. Yes, the commissioner of the WNBA is a Lehigh grad and her beloved Mountain Hawks are a win against Army away from their first Patriot League regular season title since 2010. Addie Micir has done a fantastic job in just three seasons getting the Hawks into this position with the help of senior guard Maddie Albrecht, who (like Richmond’s Maggie Doogan) leads her team in four of the big five statistical categories. By all accounts, it doesn’t make a lot of sense that Army is here, with one game left and a shot to claim a share of the league title. No one on this team averages more than 14 points per game but they play nine players more than 20 minutes a game on average and have five players that contribute by committee. A great second screen game.
Must-Watch Score: 7.5/10
Lindenwood (20-8, 16-3 OVC) vs. Tennessee Tech (23-5, 17-2 OVC): 2:00 PM ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: Initially, I thought this game was going to be a battle of matched records for a shot at the outright title. But then Lindenwood lost on the road to Western Illinois in an upset that changed how we look at this game. Here’s where it gets interesting though. The Lions beat the Golden Eagles in the first edition of this matchup so if they were to win again, then they’d own the tiebreaker to win the conference. So even though this is a 2 loss vs. 3 loss OVC game, it still is a de facto championship albeit in a more murky kind of way. I’d anticipate a game against sum-of-parts teams rather than an individual breakout by a singular star. Tennessee Tech has four players averaging double figures while Lindenwood has three. Back in January, the Lions broke a stalemate in the second quarter and rode to a 67-54 win over the Golden Eagles. Back then, the teams’ respective records were 5-5 and 7-4. Oh, what a difference a month and a half makes.
Must-Watch Score: 7.5/10
Purdue Fort Wayne (23-6, 18-1 Horizon) vs. Green Bay (25-5, 18-1 Horizon): 2:00 PM ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: The Horizon League is my women’s basketball Roman Empire and I’m so glad that my faith has been repaid with a regular season championship game on the last day of their regular season. For years, I’ve watched Kevin Borseth coached Phoenix teams upset a bunch of fringe Top 25 high-major teams in November of each year before heading to the NCAA Tournament. The only bummer every March would be that they could never replicate it against their bracket opponent. In Kayla Karius’ first year, Green Bay hasn’t lost a step and now takes on a Purdue Fort Wayne that’s been a nice surprise this year. Maria Marchesano is a major up-and-comer among mid-major head coaches and is on the precipice of building a champion the way she did at Mount St. Mary’s. If that doesn’t sell you, maybe this will. The first game between these two teams ended 67-66 with PFW walking away the winner. Mastodons leading scorer Lauryn Ross hit a dagger three with 50 seconds left to put them up 5 with precious time left. I expect another banger here.
Must-Watch Score: 8/10
Missouri State (22-6, 14-3 MVC) vs. Belmont (17-11, 12-5 MVC): 5:00 PM ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: Belmont has the chance to do the funniest thing ever. After basically fumbling the bag down the stretch, the Bruins now take on the league leading Missouri State Lady Bears and have a shot to plunge the MVC into chaos with just three games left in the regular season. MSU’s two biggest challenges to end the year are Belmont and Illinois State (also 12-5 in conference). Barring catastrophe, I expect Murray State and Drake to win their final three games and end the regular season with 16-4 conference records. One loss by the Lady Bears and we enter chaos territory. Bart Brooks’ Bruins haven’t been the team we thought they’d be this year but they still possess a top end that can make a mess if need be. Two things are worth noting here: they’ve lost four of their last five. They also had a chance against Missouri State in January to tie the game at the buzzer and missed. There’s upset potential here and the possibility for mess, which you know we love.
Must-Watch Score: 7/10
No. 4 USC (25-2, 16-1 Big Ten) vs. No. 2 UCLA (27-1, 16-1 Big Ten): 9:00 PM ET, FOX
Why it’s worth a watch: It all shook out exactly how we wanted it to. Thank the lord. This is the Big Ten Championship (regular season edition), in Los Angeles, against crosstown rivals, who have two of the best players in the country. Oh, and both teams are in the Top 5 nationally. I mean, come on. You couldn’t write a better script. Not only that, you couldn’t create the conditions that can spawn a long term women’s basketball rivalry any better. I wrote in Five Out after the first matchup that the Women of Troy’s win in the Galen Center was the type of game that builds generational fans. This is the type of game that builds generational hate. And you need both to nurture a rivalry properly. Enjoy it, folks. I don’t have much more to say. Either you love ball and you turn this game on or you don’t. That simple.
Must-Watch Score: 10/10
Sunday, March 2
No. 25 Louisville (20-8, 13-4 ACC) vs. No. 3 Notre Dame (24-4, 15-2 ACC): 12:00 PM ET, ESPN
Why it’s worth a watch: Ah, Jeff. We meet again. Louisville sold the clip a bit against North Carolina, letting an eight point lead slip away in the fourth quarter, putting a damper on what’s been an otherwise remarkable February. When your only two blemishes are losses to Top 10 teams while beating three other teams ranked 10-25, then you’ve had a solid month in my book. They, like Belmont, have the chance to play spoiler. NC State plays SMU at the same time of day and I don’t think it’s presumptuous to say that the Wolfpack are probably going to win that game. Where it can get very chaotic is if the Cardinals upsets Notre Dame and the Irish lose the ACC regular season by losing their last three games, including a double overtime game to NC State. I don’t necessarily expect that to happen, especially with the game in South Bend and the Irish winning the reverse matchup in Louisville earlier this year. But the intricacy I’m watching is how Notre Dame’s backcourt of Olivia Miles and Hannah Hidalgo perform. In both losses, they haven’t played to the level we know they’re capable of. If it becomes three straight games of subpar guardplay from them, then we can start setting off some March alarm bells.
Must-Watch Score: 8.5/10
Michigan (19-9, 10-7 Big Ten) vs. Illinois (21-7, 11-6 Big Ten): 1:30 PM ET, BTN
Why it’s worth a watch: Shauna Green has the opportunity here to beat Michigan and finish in the Top 5 in the Big Ten in a season in which that’s incredibly difficult to do. It’s been a steady build for the Illini and, had the realignment of the Pac-12 not happened, they’d probably finish with an even better record and conference tournament seed. The Wikipedia page will show a 5th place conference finish twice in three years but the context is just how much harder this one was to attain than in her first year. Now, that comes with the expectation that they beat Michigan and that isn’t a given. Kim Barnes Arico has done a commendable job turning a roster with a bevy of talented guards and not a ton else into a top half Big Ten team that can put the fear of God into anyone on any given night. One of the last good-on-good matchups we get in the league this year.
Must-Watch Score: 8/10
No. 15 Kentucky (22-5, 11-4 SEC) vs. No. 6 South Carolina (26-3, 14-1 SEC): m 2:00 PM ET, ESPN
Why it’s worth a watch: I don’t think Kentucky’s 24 point win over Tennessee helped me understand their ceiling. If anything, it made me more confused. Say, for instance, that game was a 4 point Wildcat win in which both teams fought until the end. I’d walk away thinking ‘okay, that’s two Sweet 16 teams playing’. Maybe that’s still the case and we just got a truly heinous ‘Spear Game’ (UT’s Zee Spearman and Jewel Spear combined for 0-15 FG and 0-7 3PT). But I can’t ignore the 11/11 performance by Clara Strack and Georgia Amoore’s 50% shooting performance against a team that she typically struggles against. Thankfully, Kentucky plays South Carolina and I finally get the data point I’ve been looking for. Even though they haven’t been the best team in America this year, I still look at Dawn Staley’s Gamecocks as the barometer that teams are measured against. Even though they beat Ole Miss by 16, I didn’t walk away from that game feeling super confident about SC heading into March. They can alleviate those concerns in a hurry if they go BTA in their final home game of the regular season.
Must-Watch Score: 9/10
No. 20 Alabama (23-6, 10-5 SEC) vs. No. 13 Oklahoma (22-5, 10-5 SEC): 2:30 PM ET, SECN+
Why it’s worth a watch: This is a good-on-good I’ve been waiting for all year. Quietly, it might end up being the most fun, highest scoring and best paced game of the day. I fully expect this thing to end in the high 80’s or low 90’s (don’t use this as gambling advice, PLEASE) based on how both teams like to play. They’re right in the same ball park in terms of talent and strength of wins/schedule. Oklahoma is better on the road but both teams are relatively the same against Top 25 competition. How Raegan Beers manages to play against Essence Cody, who is coming off a 17 point, 6 rebound, 5 block performance against LSU will be a decider in this game. The matchups between OU’s Payton Verhulst and Sahara Williams and Bama’s Sarah Ashlee Barker and Aaliyah Nye will be fun as hell. Watch for Crimson Tide guard Zaay Green here too. I think she might be the x-factor. Definitely a primary screen game if SC - Kentucky gets out of hand early.
Must-Watch Score: 9/10
Ole Miss (18-9, 9-6 SEC) vs. No. 7 LSU (27-3, 12-3 SEC): 4:00 PM ET, SECN
Why it’s worth a watch: It may be a hot take but I think Coach Yo gets a bit in her head coaching against Dawn Staley. They both preach a similar ethos and it’s clear from every public statement that Ole Miss’ head coach is understandably in awe of South Carolina’s program leader and what' she’s done with that program. But when they play it almost feels like the Rebs play like they know that SC is the upgraded version of themselves. What I want to see out of Ole Miss as they play LSU is a bit of ‘eff you’ energy. They play defense as well as any team in the country and the fact that they repeatedly wilt against top end teams is baffling to me. They have offensive weapons but they don’t excel in the way it feels like they can. To me, this matchup favors Coach Yo’s team on paper but it depends on the level of belief. I know LSU will come out, even though they don’t have that supplemental center that can help Aneesah Morrow on the offensive glass and offensively in the circle. Will Ole Miss? That’s the March question I want to see answered here.
Must-Watch Score: 7.5/10
No. 14 Kansas State (25-5, 13-4 Big 12) vs. Iowa State (20-10, 11-6 Big 12): 4:00 PM ET, ESPN2/Disney+
Why it’s worth a watch: I debated throwing this on the guide given the deficiencies of Iowa State and knowing that they just aren’t good enough to beat the top end of the Big 12 this week. But with rumors that Missouri might be making a run at Kansas State head coach Jeff Mittie, it got me curious. Players and coaches can say that distractions don’t enter their locker room but I think we all know that’s bunk. If a coaching rumor has legs, it will reflect on teams in really interesting ways. It’s pretty rare, in a variety of sports, that a team will just continue to win and win as their head coach makes a major life change in the span on 72 hours. So, I am watching this game for an agenda that could very well turn out to be wrong. To quote Bill Simmons, we’re the body language doctor in this game. Iowa State hasn’t beaten a single Top 25 this year and lost to K-State in Manhattan 87-79 earlier this year. By all accounts, this is a game the Wildcats should win. If the Cyclones come out and win this handily, or if KSU doesn’t show a ton of energy throughout the game I think it’s fair game to start asking about how much contact Mizzou has had with Mittie.
Must-Watch Score: 7/10
No. 12 Ohio State (24-4, 13-4 Big Ten) vs. No. 19 Maryland (22-6, 12-5 Big Ten): 4:30 PM ET, FOX
Why it’s worth a watch: This is the Big Ten version of Alabama vs. Oklahoma. I don’t think Ohio State and Maryland are teams that will go any deeper than the Sweet 16 but because of that, it will make for a fun and balanced matchup. The first time the Terps and Buckeyes played one another this year, Ohio State rallied back from a 15 point deficit, wrangling back the lead towards the end of the third quarter and not surrendering it the rest of the way. It was a huge Jaloni Cambridge game and, for narrative and marketing of star purposes, I’d love to see that happen again. There are performances I expect to see correct, especially from Maryland’s Sarah Te-Biasu (3/12 FG) and Ohio State’s Chance Gray (0/7 FG), who shot poorly in the first fixture. There’s also stakes here too. Illinois holds the tiebreaker over Maryland so if the Illini win and the Terps lose, then one gets a bye to the Big Ten Tournament quarterfinals and the other doesn’t.
Must-Watch Score: 8.5/10
Oregon (19-9, 10-7 Big Ten) vs. Washington (17-12, 8-9 Big Ten): 5:00 PM ET, B1G+
Why it’s worth a watch: Wins over Nebraska and Minnesota did the Huskies a huge favor in terms of ESPN bracketology. Harvard’s Friday night loss to Princeton probably helps them as well. I still am not sure if I see the vision of Washington as a 10 seed in March Madness but I think we’re at a point where they might safely be in the NCAA Tournament. The stakes now between these age-old PNW rivals is likely a couple things. First, Oregon wants to solidify a 7 seed in the Big Ten Tournament. No matter what, the Ducks are probably going to see one of USC or UCLA in the bracket but the difference between being seventh and having that first round bye vs. being tenth and having a longer road is huge. It buys you NCAA Tournament seeding insurance and gives you an extra day of rest. Plus, it’s a big narrative win for Kelly Graves if his team finishes this year with 20 wins just one season removed from a run in which people were openly calling for his firing. I think it’s already been proven but being able to point to a 20-9 regular season is a great way to solidify that the Ducks are still a viable high major program as long as KG is there.
Must-Watch Score: 7.5/10
No. 16 Duke (22-7, 13-4 ACC) vs. No. 24 Florida State (23-6, 13-4 ACC): 6:00 PM ET, ACC Network
Why it’s worth a watch: This game is for a first round bye in the ACC Conference Tournament. Four teams — Louisville, Florida State, UNC and Duke — are tied at 13-4 in Atlantic Coast play, which creates a four way tie for 3rd. NC State and Notre Dame have both locked in the top two seeds of the bracket. Louisville plays the Irish, a game I project ND to win. UNC plays Virginia and I suspect the Tar Heels will take home a dub there. So that leaves the winner of this game with an inside track to finishing 14-4 and locking up that final bye. Both squads are coming off program defining wins for their coaches. Duke beat UNC in Cameron while Ta’Niya Latson’s fourth quarter takeover paced the Seminoles past the No. 3 Fighting Irish. If there’s one thing the Blue Devils do well it’s be able to stop a dominant scorer. How will ‘Baby Wade’ be able to navigate it? I’ve been impressed with Florida State’s complementary pieces this year in O’Mariah Gordon and Mikayla Timpson. If they can rise to the occasion the way they did against ND, we might be looking at an all-time great FSU women’s basketball season.
Must-Watch Score: 8.5/10
No. 10 TCU (27-3, 15-2 Big 12) vs. No. 17 Baylor (25-5, 15-2 Big 12): 6:30 PM ET, FS1
Why it’s worth a watch: I’d have to go back and check but I think this is the first 10/10 game we got in the Big 12 this year. It’s a legit question if Mark Campbell decides to stay at TCU long term. He’s a good dude but definitely a careerist in nature. That’s not necessarily a hindrance in something like collegiate athletics but it definitely will always leave a non blue blood fanbase wondering how long you’re really there for. At least for now, he’s all in on building Ft. Worth and, knowing Mark, he definitely sees TCU as a program where you can build a juggernaut based on the recruiting landscape, location of the school and other factors. With so much parity in the Big 12, a conference regular season title in a record breaking season can create a narrative that he’s building what Kim Mulkey built at Baylor. On the other end, you have Nicki Collen who has had to exist in that very shadow in Waco. Over the last couple of years, it’s felt like Baylor has left meat on the bone in terms of their competitiveness in the Big 12 and the NCAA Tournament. A title win here could be the validation she needs to prove that she’s capable of maintaining the standard of greatness at Baylor. Plus, the frontcourt of Baylor will be a really interesting litmus test for TCU’s Sedona Prince.
Must-Watch Score: 10/10
Monday, March 3
Norfolk State (24-4, 11-0 MEAC) vs. North Carolina Central (8-18, 5-6 MEAC): 5:30 PM ET, ESPN+
Why it’s worth a watch: Norfolk State has the tiebreaker win over Howard here so even if they lose this game to NCCU and the Bison win, Sparty still takes home the MEAC regular season crown. So instead of watching this game for title implications, I’m watching it as a coronation. NSU has had one of the best HBCU women’s basketball seasons in a decade, beating two SEC teams for the first time in program history and holding the most wins over power five teams by an HBCU since the 2014 Hampton Pirates. That team was given a 12 seed in the NCAA Tournament and I think it’s crazy that even now, Norfolk is projected for a 14 seed. We talk every year about how the committee under-seeds HBCU’s and this year would be one of the most egregious examples if they don’t rate the Spartans appropriately.
Must-Watch Score: 7.5/10