No Cap Space WBB Team Previews: Atlanta Dream
After a season of major moves, Atlanta seems to be a team trending upward. Will new coach Karl Smesko be able to put it all together?
The knock on the Atlanta Dream has never been a lack of desire from their ownership group. It’s been that the moves, which on paper should’ve bore more fruit than they did, never really materialized into something special. After a 15-25 season in which ATL entered the playoffs as an 8 seed and were swept by the New York Liberty, those in charge made a change. Head coach Tanisha Wright was let go and pace-and-space guru Karl Smesko was hired.
Smesko had a long and successful career at Florida Gulf Coast and already appears to be bringing that speed and shooting with him. Training camp reports indicate that we may see a very different Dream franchise this year, with a greater emphasis on off-ball movement and speed. One thing is for sure: Atlanta is not content to be left behind as the league enters a new era of its existence. The Dream are clearly aiming to contend and we’ll find out this year if that’s a legitimate possibility.
2024 Lookback:
15-25 Overall (1-4 Commissioner’s Cup)
Head Coach Tanisha Wright fired
Karl Smesko hired as head coach.
2024 Leaders:
Rhyne Howard: 17.3 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 3.1 APG, 1.8 SPG
Allisha Gray: 15.6 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 2.7 APG
Tina Charles: 14.9 PPG, 9.6 RPG, 2.3 APG
Who Left:
Iliana Rupert (Golden State Valkyries via Expansion Draft)
Danielle Robinson (Retired)
Laeticia Amihere (Golden State via waivers)
Tina Charles (Connecticut Sun via free agency)
Cheyenne Parker-Tyus (Las Vegas Aces via free agency)
Lorela Cubaj (Free Agent)
Ezinne Kalu (Free Agent)
Aerial Powers (Free Agent)
Haley Jones (Waived)
Who’s Back:
Isobel Borlase
Nyadiew Puoch
Maya Caldwell
Jordin Canada
Nia Coffey
Allisha Gray
Naz Hillmon
Rhyne Howard
Draft Picks:
Te-Hina Paopao (Round 2, Pick 18)
Taylor Thierry (Round 3, Pick 36)
Who’s New:
Shatori Walker-Kimbrough (From Washington Mystics via free agency)
Brittney Griner (From Phoenix Mercury via free agency)
Brionna Jones (From Connecticut Sun via free agency)
2025 Strengths:
On paper, and given what Smesko’s scheme is, I actually really love the roster construction and what GM Dan Padover has done here. They have a nice mix of size, speed and versatility. Rhyne Howard feels poised for a potential breakout campaign in a system that emphasis tempo and spacing. There’s a lot of veteran experience and Griner brings a championship pedigree. Brionna Jones being her running mate in the frontcourt is one of the more underrated signings of this last year.
There are some questions about how deep the bench is but the starting five for Atlanta can compete against just about any team in the league. Canada, in particular, feels like she could be a really fun part of this offense with her speed and creativity. The hunch (and expectation) is that the Dream will be taking a more analytical approach that’s more in line with their NBA colleagues, prioritizing three pointers and short layups around the hoop. One thing I really like is that Atlanta went out and got the personnel to fit Smesko’s system rather than expecting him to conform to who they already had. It’s also worth noting that this is easily the most talent he’s ever been around and there’s a shot that he might surprise some people who are unfamiliar with his game.
2025 Weaknesses:
Granted, the system was very different. But the three point shooting stats of the returning Dream players is…not great. The top two shooters from 3, Howard and Gray, shot 32.9 and 34.2 percent respectively last year. Jordin Canada, who only averaged about 2.9 three point attempts per game, shot even worse. So I’m curious about whether or not that was a function of Tanisha Wright’s system not creating the open looks needed or if this is a potential personnel issue. I’m willing to believe the former when you look at some past stats. Allisha Gray was a 40.8% three point shooter in her final year in Dallas while Howard topped out at around 35% in 2023.
Additionally, I’m interested in the bench and just how deep they go within this offense. Naz Hillmon feels like a major rotational piece that will be asked to carry the load with Griner and/or Jones off the floor. Shatori Walker-Kimbrough coming from Washington and re-signing Maya Caldwell helps alleviate some backcourt depth. What I’m really curious about is Haley Jones, the former Stanford star, who has yet to really make a mark in this league. I’ll cop to the fact that I’ve been maybe unnecessarily harsh on the 23 year old guard given this is just year three. But dating back to our days in Palo Alto, there were flashes of her ceiling separated by all-too-long periods of just decent play. It’s definitely in there. Maybe it’ll take the right coach to unlock it. Maybe that coach might just be Karl Smesko.
2025 Outlook:
If there is a team in the league this year that has “come out of nowhere and be amazing” potential, it’s Atlanta. We have no clue how this Smesko offense will do, how he’ll adjust to the W, how players will receive him and how all these pieces fit together. The best case scenario is tantalizing, to say the least. Imagine a world where Howard is regularly getting open looks due to great off-ball movement while Jones and Hillmon can clean up boards and Griner can just operate as a rim runner. If Gray finds her three point shot and Jones develops even more in year three, the Dream have a shot to be really, really good. WNBA title contender good? Maybe not. But there is a lot of talent here that can make them an exciting watch week-in and week-out.