Midweek Musings: Allisha Gray Is Making a Legit MVP Case One Month Into the WNBA Season. Let's Talk About It.

The Atlanta Dream point guard is having a career year so far under new head coach Karl Smesko. Can she sustain it? And if she does, where does she land in the WNBA MVP race?

Welcome to another edition of Midweek Musings, where one of our No Cap Space WBB crew gets a crack at a topic that has been on their mind in the last few days or weeks.

Usually, these are behind the paywall but since there’s a corresponding YouTube video for this particular topic, we’ve decided to open this column up for everyone (and maybe even get you to see what you’re missing in the Ball-Knowers tier!). Alright, shameless plug over. Let’s talk about Allisha Gray.

For years, Gray has been a steady and solid WNBA pro averaging a career 13.1 points, 4.4 rebounds and 2.3 assists per game. Her best season came in 2023, where she earned her first of two All-Star nods, as she averaged 17.1 points, 4.9 rebounds and 3.1 assists per game. Curiously, she’s never made an All-WNBA team despite consistently steady numbers and two seasons as one of the top options in Atlanta. But the talent has always been apparent.

Gray has always been a star caliber player dating back to her high school days, when she was the Gatorade Player of the Year in Georgia in 2012. Despite being born in South Carolina, her collegiate career started at Chapel Hill at North Carolina where she was named to the ACC All-Freshman team in 2014, followed up by a First-Team All-ACC nod in 2015. After three seasons with UNC, she transferred to Columbia where she would link up with Dawn Staley and Gamecocks women’s basketball. With Gray and A’ja Wilson leading the way, the team won their first national title in 2017. A month or so later, Gray was taken 4th overall in the WNBA Draft by the Dallas Wings and won Rookie of the Year that same season.

In short, the goods have always been there. For one reason or another, we just haven’t gotten peak Allisha Gray in the W. Until this year.

The Numbers

Let’s start with the counting stats. If you look at career averages, Gray appears to be a solid-if-not-unremarkable guard at this level. But then you start to take a look at the early returns in 2025 and she appears to be a completely different player.

Through nine games, Gray is averaging 20.4 points, 5.3 rebounds and 4.4 assists per game. Her career field goal percentages are 42.9% from the field and 35.1% from three point range. This season? 50.4% from the field and 42.3% from deep. Some can attribute it to a hot start but if you look at the system Smesko employs, Gray has been getting more open shots and runs at the basket than she’s ever seen in her career. Most importantly, she’s getting to the line and attempting 6.1 free throws per game, already outpacing her 2023 career best of 5.4 attempts from the stripe. She’s always been solid with ball protection, never averaging more than 2 turnovers a game in her career, and it’s more of the same this season.

One could argue that the talent around her is better in Atlanta this season but I’d argue that Gray’s success is being aided by a system that has transferred perfectly from Florida Gulf Coast to the WNBA. Here’s where it gets interesting though. Karl Smesko’s system is predicated on ball movement, pace and three point shooting. But if you watch a lot of their games, Gray is the one facilitating the offense in the halfcourt. In fact, Atlanta’s pace is 78.3, 7th out of the 13 teams in the WNBA. Gray currently leads the league in offensive win shares and is 3rd in offensive rating (a blistering 132.4) while maintaining a reasonable usage rate of 21.4%. For reference, Satou Sabally leads the league in that statistic at a shade over 35%.

I know there’s some folks that don’t love plus/minus stats either but it is worth noting that she’s a +7.2 per 100 possessions on the floor while her plus/minus net is +3.6. In short, the Dream are better with her on the court. If that’s not a display of value, I don’t know what is.

The Intangibles

Now, the intangibles of value and the storyline of a player are also important things to consider in MVP races. So much of how the award is given out is based on numbers as much as it is team success and the narrative built around a player. Last season, A’ja Wilson took an early lead and never relinquished it with a couple strong storylines in her favor. She was in the process of officially taking the crown of best player in the league, there was the case of that curious 4th place vote that added some fuel as well as the Aces status as back-to-back defending champions. That, coupled with legitimately never-before-seen stats, put her over the top and made the award hers to lose pretty early on.

Napheesa Collier has a great story this year. Never the flashiest or the most outspoken, Phee has just quietly improved year after year into becoming a dominant centerpiece for a historically dynastic franchise. Her performance last season on both ends culminated in a five game Finals series against the New York Liberty in which, I’m sure many fans would argue, ended under somewhat dubious refereeing circumstances. But the Lynx losing actually adds some juice to Phee’s MVP story this year. She’s coming for it all. That’s easy for media members to write about and craft narratives off of.

Caitlin Clark is still lurking in the mix here and will likely be right back in the conversation when she returns from injury. By now, we know her story and how to craft (healthy) narratives around her. To pull from another sport, she feels like she’s on a bit of a Patrick Mahomes arc right now.

Gray is someone that mainstream press and those just entering the game may not be familiar with. But make no mistake, this is a remarkable story. The 30 year old guard who has mostly been a good-to-great player on underachieving teams finally gets paired with a coach that knows how to maximize her abilities. A former NCAA champion and USA Basketball 3x3 Gold Medalist now getting the opportunity to really cook in a market that means so much culturally to the WNBA. If I’m Atlanta, I’m pushing all my marketing chips in on Gray right now to get her known to the general populace. James Worthy got famous for the goggles so why can’t we make Allisha Gray famous for the glasses?

The Historical Context

Here is where things get dicey because history is working against Gray, Clark and any other elite guard in the WNBA. This is still a big-centric league and even as offensive stats are up year-over-year, the engines of franchises are still very much their forwards and centers. It’s been a few years but it feels like the W is in the midst of a major backcourt renaissance. Gray is rejuvenated, Clark and Paige Bueckers are leading the youth movement with elite talents like JuJu Watkins, MiLaysia Fulwiley and Hannah Hidalgo on the way up next.

But it’s been over 15 years since a pure guard was named a WNBA MVP. Elena Delle Donne was listed as a guard/forward when she won in 2015 and 2019 but the last true backcourt star was Diana Taurasi in 2009. Since then, the award has been dominated by the likes of Breanna Stewart and A’ja Wilson, who have combined to win five of the last seven MVP’s. What would it take for someone like Gray or Clark to break through past this version of Collier or even Wilson who seems to be getting a bit of Lebron-style voter fatigue treatment. Shoot, she’s is averaging 22 points and 9.9 rebounds a game which would still be an MVP top three contender in any other year.

Wilson’s season last year merited a unanimous MVP honor or at least something close to it. Averaging nearly 27 and 12 while effectively carrying the load of your entire team is worthy of honor but if you look at the pure counting stats beneath her, Gray wouldn’t be too far off. Take a look at last year’s MVP top five after A’ja…

Napheesa Collier: 20.4 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.9 SPG, 1.4 BPG

Breanna Stewart: 20.4 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.7 SPG, 1.3 BPG

Caitlin Clark: 19.2 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 8.4 APG, 1.3 SPG, 0.7 BPG

Now let’s add in Allisha Gray’s early numbers assuming they hold for the season…

Napheesa Collier: 20.4 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 3.4 APG, 1.9 SPG, 1.4 BPG

Breanna Stewart: 20.4 PPG, 9.7 RPG, 3.5 APG, 1.7 SPG, 1.3 BPG

Caitlin Clark: 19.2 PPG, 5.7 RPG, 8.4 APG, 1.3 SPG, 0.7 BPG

Allisha Gray: 20.4 PPG, 5.3 RPG, 4.4 APG, 1.1 SPG, 0.6 BPG

Sure looks like she would belong in the conversation, no?

The Verdict

This column is not to convince you that Allisha Gray should be number one in the current WNBA MVP race. Instead, it’s a challenge to open your mind to the possibilities of who could be in contention. The Atlanta Dream have quietly become one of the best stories in the league this year. After years of floundering in the middle tier of the league despite ownerships’ investments into the roster, the Dream are finally fulfilling their task of being a fun, exciting and watch-worthy product. As the de facto pro women’s basketball franchise of the southeast, they represent something significant. The same way the New York Knicks being good for the NBA is seen as scripture, the Atlanta Dream being successful is good for the WNBA in the same way.

While I can understand a bit of the dilemma within marketing given that you have a former number one pick in Rhyne Howard, who was branded a generational talent and, to her credit, is having a breakout season, I think Gray’s story and season needs to be pushed out to a wider audience. The league is at its best when we can have these kinds of pure hoop discussions and right now the Dream are giving us one of the better basketball storylines of the early season. I don’t know if that happens without Allisha Gray or if it’s as fun if she’s not the one leading the team.

There’s a ton of good options one month into the year for the MVP race. Obviously it feels like Napheesa Collier is running in front with Wilson just behind and then a host of interesting players from Caitlin Clark to Brittney Sykes and Gray trailing in the next tier. But the fun of the league this year is that it feels like we’re getting all of the best of sports talk and storytelling.

• A pair of dominant teams, one led by a superstar and the other comprised of two MVP’s and a couple All-WNBA guards.

• Exciting franchises that took risks and are seeing the gambles pay off in exciting ways.

• Box office names that bring everyone from the diehard fan to the casual in.

• Some mess and drama among some of the lower end teams in the league.

• Dan Cortese (shoutout to Bill Hader).

Are you not entertained?