Five Out: House Money in Vegas, Valiant Valkyries and Chicago's Continuing Clash of Characters

We are officially in September which means the WNBA regular season will soon give way to the playoffs. What has been keeping our resident columnist up at night as we get closer to it?

Courtesy: Grace Smith/Indy Star

Happy Labor Day, everyone!

As we turn the page into September, we at No Cap Space WBB are gearing up for a busy few months ahead. On one end, we’re barreling towards the postseason and preparing ourselves for a packed content calendar of playoff coverage. On the other, we’re getting ready for a new season of women’s college basketball with conference previews and individual player profiles as part of our ‘Luxury Tax’ series.

It’s one of the busiest times of the year but also one of the most enjoyable. If there were ever a time to consider becoming a Ball-Knower here, it’s now.

Onto the column we go!

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1. The Golden State Valkyries Deserve To Be A Bigger Story Than They Are…

Don’t look now, folks. The Golden State Valkyries may mess around and end up with the sixth seed in the WNBA playoffs. Not one week ago, the Valks were 18-18 and fighting for their playoff lives as teams like Los Angeles appeared to be surging. But midway through the third quarter in College Park Center, down two to the Dallas Wings, a flip switched in Golden State, and now they’re riding a three-game winning streak and firmly in postseason position. Keep in mind that this was a team that raised more than a few eyebrows after their inaugural offseason didn’t promise the massive free agent splashes we expected.

We’ve memory-holed it a bit, but there was a lot of interest around the idea of the WNBA’s newest expansion franchise potentially trading for a Kelsey Plum or trying to sign a marquee free agent. Even when they didn’t, there was a belief that maybe they’d use their lottery pick to secure a big college star to bring fans in. Instead, the Valkyries signed a mix of WNBA castoffs and European stars to pair with a first-rounder that hasn’t even seen the floor yet. It was perfectly reasonable to assume that Golden State was going to be a below-average team that was likely to be in the lottery next season or in a prime position to entice some big-name free agents in the 2026 cycle.

Instead, they’re 21-18 and very much in the playoff conversation. Natalie Nakase is a Coach of the Year contender, Ballhalla is the best fan experience currently in the WNBA and the organization seems to have struck a nice balance between highlighting Bay Area culture while still making the basketball the main event. I mean, what other franchise has Angela Davis doing pregame hype rituals inside their arena?

The Valkyries probably should be a bigger story (and we as media members are responsible for that too) but because of how the league follows the NBA’s lead in positioning singular stars above all, they’ve flown under the radar a bit. Maybe that should change as we inch closer towards the postseason. This is an expansion franchise that has punched above its weight all year and is building a solid foundation to eventually contend for titles. But beyond that, there are great stories here. Janelle Salaun and Carla Leite are part of a golden generation of French women’s basketball players. Veronica Burton is the MIP frontrunner while Kayla Thornton may have been if not for a season-ending injury. There’s great stories here and, hopefully, we get more shots to tell them as the playoffs get set to begin.

2. At What Point Does Vegas Become A WNBA Title Favorite?

The Minnesota Lynx have been the constant in the ‘championship contender’ conversation this season. Initially, it felt like we were on a collision course with a Lynx - Liberty rematch but now that seems to have fizzled out a bit. Now, it feels like the discussion is about whether or not there is a worthy challenger for a Minnesota team that hasn’t really missed a step the entire year.

So…what about Las Vegas?

As it currently stands, the Aces are winners of 12 straight games. Within that streak are wins over Golden State (twice), Seattle, New York, Phoenix (twice) and Atlanta (twice). If you’re keeping track, that’s five of the eight playoff teams, three of whom we consider to be possible Finals contenders.

It’s important to note here that the only team the Aces have had extensive trouble with has been Minnesota, which is one game away from a regular-season sweep of Vegas. But this final matchup on Thursday feels different. Since their 111-58 blowout loss to the Lynx, Aces guard Jewell Loyd went to the bench, A’ja Wilson has gone thermonuclear and the supporting cast has stepped up to become a championship-level squad. It also helps that Chelsea Gray has seemingly turned back the clock a couple of years and looks as dangerous as ever.

If Vegas is able to come out and make a statement against the Lynx in one of their last four games of the year, is it fair to finally call the Aces a title favorite? It feels like we’ve been holding off on anointing them as such because of how much trouble they’ve had with Minnesota this season. But the last 12 games have shown me that this is no fluke. Whatever the Aces have tapped into, it’s real and has staying power otherwise you wouldn’t be ripping off win after win against top teams in the league.

In the Ball-Knowers Watch Guide we do every Friday, I rarely list matchups as 10/10 on the Must-Watch Scale. Mostly it’s because I think a 10/10 is rarified air, only reserved for games that I truly believe are the best matchups of the year. Thursday’s game between Minnesota and Las Vegas might be the first 10/10 WNBA game this regular season. 40 minutes will tell us so much about so many things and that’s exactly what we want at this point in the year.

3. How Do We Discuss Alyssa Thomas In The Context of The MVP Race?

Here’s an interesting exercise. Take a look at the following stats…

Player A: 15.5 PPG, 7.9 RPG, 9.9 APG, 1.8 SPG, 47.4 FG%

Player B: 15.8 PPG, 8.9 RPG, 9.2 APG, 1.6 SPG, 53.9 FG%

Player A is Alyssa Thomas in 2023. Player B is Alyssa Thomas in 2025.

Why show those two averages? Because 2023 was the year that AT finished 2nd in the MVP voting. For those that need a refresher, Breanna Stewart took home the Most Valuable Player award that year as conversation centered around a singular fourth-place vote for A’ja Wilson. What people don’t seem to remember is that that particular vote didn’t stop Wilson from overcoming Stewie. Instead, Alyssa Thomas pulled away votes and finished sandwiched between the two.

In the midst of so much discussion about A’ja vs. Phee for the 2025 MVP, where do we rank A.T.?

Look, I know and understand the critiques of her game. There’s a Lebron quality to her in that when you bring Thomas onto your team, she becomes your fulcrum for everything. The offense primarily runs through her and lives or dies by how well she plays. Her limited range (mostly because she’s played with two torn labrums her entire career) as a shooter makes her more easily guardable especially in the playoffs.

But here’s the thing: the woman is playing at this level on TWO TORN LABRUMS AT 33 YEARS OLD! At some point, that has to count for something, right?

There’s a pretty easy argument to make that she’s turned Phoenix into a contender that’s still battling for a two seed with a small handful of games left in the regular season. She’s had more triple-doubles in one season than anyone has had in their WNBA career and is hitting her stride with Kahleah Copper and Satou Sabally alongside her. If you compare this year to her 2023 season, A.T. is shooting more efficiently and sharing the ball better on marginally more usage.

In some ways, it feels like she gets docked points for her lack of a championship at this point in her career. How does an MVP, the de facto best player in the league, manage to get somewhat figured out each season when the playoffs come? I understand voters who might feel this way when trying to assess her next to someone like A’ja Wilson or even Napheesa Collier (who some may still feel like was robbed out of a ring last year).

Am I saying that she should be the MVP? Not necessarily. What I am saying, however, is that this should probably be a three-player discussion as we head into the last week or so of the regular season. In a rings-obsessed culture, it feels like we’ve overlooked just how good A.T. is and has been. Even if she’s not the MVP this year, I hope folks understand that we are witnessing an all-time great who is playing at this level while not even close to 100 percent healthy. That’s remarkable however you slice it.

4. The Last First-Team All-WNBA Spot Is A Rorschach Test for Voters…

At this point, I’d argue that four of the five spots for First Team All-WNBA are, more or less, decided. You’ve got Napheesa Collier, A’ja Wilson, Alyssa Thomas and Allisha Gray pretty much locked into those spots. But now, you’ve got a really interesting storyline emerging about who gets that final spot. Keep in mind that the All-WNBA teams are positionless so you can really throw anyone in there.

I’ve discussed in prior Five Outs that it feels like this may be one of the more fascinating votes in recent years.

Do you go with a guard like Kelsey Mitchell or Sabrina Ionescu, who are streaky players that are big reasons their teams are in the positions they’re in?

What about a Kelsey Plum or Paige Bueckers, who fill up a stat sheet like a first-teamer but may not make the playoffs?

Or maybe even a Nneka Ogwumike, who has lived on the edge of First and Second Team All-WNBA for the last few seasons?

It truly comes down to what each individual voter values. There are sparkplug scorers, complete guards, alpha dogs and high-floor forwards. Do you value a player’s contribution to their team’s success or is being a great player on a bad roster enough? How much does making the playoffs factor into the equation? And what about records or other accolades? Does living up to the hype add credibility to a case or subtract from it?

I’ll throw up the stats and you can decide in the comments, with your friends or anywhere you might be reading this…

Kelsey Mitchell: 20.3 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 3.4 APG (45.0 FG%, 38.8 3PT%, 77.2 FT%)

Kelsey Plum: 20.1 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 5.8 APG (43.3 FG%, 35.9 3PT%, 89.0 FT%)

Paige Bueckers: 18.9 PPG, 3.8 RPG, 5.4 APG (46.6 FG%, 33.3 3PT%, 88.1 FT%)

Sabrina Ionescu: 18.8 PPG, 4.9 RPG, 5.4 APG (40.0 FG%, 30.3 3PT%, 93.2 FT%)

Nneka Ogwumike: 18.2 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 2.3 APG (52.1 FG%, 37.4 3PT%, 82.4 FT%)

5. Chicago’s Social Media Mess Proves That Everyone Is Right…And Everyone Is Wrong

Whew, man. Chicago is just an absolute mess.

For those that aren’t terminally online and missed what happened this week…

The discussion around Chennedy Carter and her exit from Chicago somehow still persists almost an entire year later. Sky fans remain split on whether or not she deserved the chance to be back. It boiled over when Crystal Robinson, an assistant on last year’s staff, was mentioned as a person who allegedly got into a fight with Carter, which cost both of them their jobs.

Robinson pushed back against the rumors, stating that she was always in Chennedy’s corner and that her own reason for leaving the organization was even messier. According to the former assistant coach’s recollection, Marina Mabrey (then a member of the Sky) went to General Manager Jeff Pagliocca and said that Robinson was racist towards white players. Pagliocca then allegedly made Robinson beg for her job, which she rebuffed and left the organization.

I’m not here to try and figure out what the truth of that interaction actually was. My gut tells me that the truth is somewhere in the middle, as it usually is, but the broader context of the drama does indicate one truism, at least: everyone was wrong and everyone was right about the last two seasons in Chicago.

What sources had indicated to our team at NCS was that there was no singular event that prompted the departure of head coach Teresa Weatherspoon, her staff and a star guard in Carter. While things never got to the point, according to our sources, that outside narratives became more important than winning, the noise had certainly started to penetrate the walls of the locker room. Sometimes, that’s all it takes in a work environment. If you walk into your office every morning and there’s a constant buzz, eventually it’s liable to drive you crazy. At the same time, there are still a lot of unknowns about how the firing of Spoon went down. I’ve probed around the fringes but my curiosity about Sydney Johnson — who was on Spoon’s staff and was seemingly the only one to land on his feet — and his role in everything is still piqued.

There may be a situation here where Pagliocca and the ownership were right to worry about whether or not the staff and team were equipped to handle the scrutiny, spotlight and open racism they received. At the same time, they may have handled all of it spectacularly wrong and set the Sky on the course they’re on now: 12-42 in the last 54 games and seemingly taking a fringe playoff team and setting them back to square one.

All of it points to a dysfunctional organization that hasn’t yet figured out how to be normal for a little while. Despite spots of success here and there, Chicago has ebbed and flowed due to mismanagement on several levels. They’ve historically had a hard time hanging on to star players, lag behind the league average in terms of general investment and seemed unprepared to handle everything that came with last season. The reasons for wanting to change things up in favor of shifting the focus back to basketball could have been correct while being done in the most hamfisted and backwards ways possible.

It’s that strange contradiction that makes Chicago a unique organization right now. For whatever reason, they’ve become quite adept at stepping on rakes and hitting themselves in the face. Whether or not Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso have the patience to continue dealing with that is another thing but, for now, the drama won’t die in the Windy City. Which, I guess, is good for the column if nothing else.

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