Five Out: Five Bold Predictions For this WNBA Season

It's opening week in the WNBA and to celebrate, Five Out gives you five bold takes about the top players, teams and storylines this season.

Get excited, folks! The WNBA season officially opens this Friday night, officially kicking off one of the most anticipated and potentially exciting years in recent memory. We took a look two weeks ago about five storylines we’ll be watching throughout the season and this week we wanted to add a little spice.

So here are five bold predictions for the year ahead. Keep in mind that these are bold predictions and tip-toe just up towards the hot take category. If you agree or disagree, leave a comment and give us your hot take for the year. We'll compile your takes and discuss them on Ball Up Top: A WBB Podcast which will be hitting your feeds tomorrow.

In the meantime…let’s get heated!

1. This year’s WNBA Finals will be Storm vs. Liberty.

Yeah, I said it. Given the fact that the Liberty were able to keep most of their core and their bench pieces, I have a hard time believing they won’t make another finals trip this year. The strength of New York lies in their frontcourt and the fact that they can just overwhelm you from wing to center with a variety of options. Jonquel Jones, Breanna Stewart, Leonie Fiebich, Nyara Sabally and now Izzy Harrison? You’d be hard pressed to find another frontcourt that deep and versatile. Say what you will about Sabrina Ionescu but Natasha Cloud is a point guard upgrade over Courtney Vandersloot (at this juncture in their careers) and, perhaps most importantly, they’ve tasted a championship and will surely want more.

The Storm heading to the Finals might be a hotter take but if the name of the game is a deep frontcourt, they’re one of the few teams that can at least go as deep as New York. While the overall talent from 3-5 on the floor might not be the same, Seattle has enough ways to hurt you from the starting lineup to their bench. I’m also of the mindset that Dominique Malonga is going to have an insanely strong finish to her rookie year. For my money, she’s the highest upside player in the draft and the highest upside player under 25 not named Caitlin Clark in the entire league. Add her into the mix with Nneka Ogwumike, Ezi Magbegor and Li Yueru and you have an incredible combination of players up front. Gabby Williams and Alysha Clark also add a good combination of defense and shooting along the wing while Skylar Diggins won last year’s backcourt Game of Thrones. They are thin in the backcourt especially with the injuries to Jordan Horston and Katie Lou Samuelson but I’m confident that what they have from wing to center will be enough to pace them all the way to a Finals trip.

2. Caitlin Clark will finish top three in MVP voting…

Probably the most lukewarm prediction of the five here but it feels like Caitlin Clark on a full years’ rest is going to make her case as the best guard in the WNBA in just her sophomore year. Over at ESPN she’s already ranked as such, sitting in their top 5 players in the league behind just A’ja Wilson, Napheesa Collier and Breanna Stewart. If you look at the statistical averages after the Olympic break last year, it backed up the idea that she was already a top three guard in the W as a rookie. Those that have an agenda against Clark’s success will continue to down her ability but the numbers don’t lie. Even if there isn’t any improvement from her rookie, she’s still an All-WNBA First Teamer. That’s the absolute floor.

If she does manage to take an additional step, particularly in the areas of ball security and on-ball defense, she’ll make a push into the MVP discussion. Now that doesn’t mean she’s the early prohibitive favorite. A’ja Wilson still draws breath, after all, and for my money the Aces forward is still the MVP frontrunner until someone unseats her. That’s just the name of the game and I don’t subscribe to the NBA idea that “player X has been good so long now it’s time to give player Y the MVP”. If you’re the best and most valuable player in the league than you’re the best and most valuable player in the league. There’s also the Napheesa Collier of it all to consider, especially as the Lynx are fully reloaded and probably are looking for a revenge tour. But I’m curious about the wear and tear that Unrivaled created leading into this season and if those that participated in the league start to taper off and get tired towards the end of the year.

What is likely is that the fresher legs prevail and that Wilson and Clark will do battle throughout the year for the MVP.

3. …But the Fever will start slow out of the gate.

With all that in mind, you have to understand what the Fever’s offseason has been. A new coach (and new staff, by extension), multiple new players including new starters. If this were any other team I’d be saying don’t expect them to make a deep playoff run because no other franchise that’s done this has immediately caught lightning in a bottle in year one. There seems to be a pattern emerging that year one for ‘super teams’ is the adjustment season and then the returns really hit in year two. Which is why I feel the Seattle Storm are primed to make a Finals run this year.

The only rebuttal Fever fans have is that the core of the team is still in place. In the case of the Liberty, Storm and even Phoenix Mercury this year, their big three either were imported or traded for. In Indiana, their core all have a year with each other already. But will all the supplementary pieces work? And will Stephanie White’s system really provide the returns needed to live up to the expectation we have for Clark and her team? A discussion topic that I think was lost in the fervor for White’s hire was the fact that the Sun were pretty plug and play with Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner leading the way. It’s a huge plus for Indy that DB came over to help establish continuity and provide a player window into what’s needed to succeed. While I don’t put a ton of stock into preseason matchups, I’m curious to see just how quickly it all coalesces. I have a funny feeling it’ll take some time to gel and the hot takes will be flying until things start to balance out in June or July.

4. Brittney Griner will be First-Team All-WNBA this season.

At 34 years old, I think BG has a second act in Atlanta. Again, the preseason is the preseason but Karl Smesko’s system looks pretty transferable to the pro level. The injury to Jordin Canada is a blow, to be sure, but there is a good bit of depth in the backcourt and it may even open up more opportunities for Allisha Gray or for rookies like Te-Hina PaoPao who has played herself into a roster spot. But I feel the true star here is going to be Brittney Griner, arguably the most talented player Smesko has ever coached.

For the first time in 11 years, BG is in a new franchise and a has been given something of a fresh start. She’s inexplicably shooting threes (and making them!) and has a frontcourt mate in Brionna Jones that will cause all sorts of matchup problems for opponents. Jones is so good that you can’t effectively double BG and the real key to contesting her in past years is not letting her play bully ball. But in Atlanta, Griner will be asked to do a lot less of that type of play. In reality, she may just be out in transition, making layups and grabbing rebounds on the opposite end. Statistically, it stands to reason that we could see some numbers we haven’t seen from her since before 2020.

Keep in mind, this is a player that still averaged around 18 points and 6 rebounds per game last year. Those numbers are still good enough to be in the All-WNBA mix but it was hard to put her on those lists when the Mercury were among one of the worst defenses in the league. If she can be a bit more effective on the defensive boards and be able to anchor the Dream defense the way she’s been able to do in the past, we might see a rejuvenated and vintage Brittney Griner.

5. Jacy Sheldon will win Most Improved Player

Maybe I’m nuts and maybe this is the hottest take of all but I actually think the Connecticut Sun might be decent this year. Yes, there isn’t a ton of star power on the roster but don’t we say every year that there are a lot of great women’s basketball players that don’t make rosters? Now when we have a team of players that fit in the latter category, we’re ready to call them trash? If Rachid Meziane gets the most out of this group, it may challenge some conventional wisdom that’s dominated the league and its’ discourse for a long time.

To that end, I think Jacy Sheldon is going to make a push to be named Most Improved Player. The rub here is how you assess MIP and what criteria you think matters the most. Is it an award for someone that’s had a few under the radar years and exploded like a DiJonai Carrington or Ty Harris (my MIP vote last year)? Or is Sheldon, a first round pick in 2024, eligible if she turns into a regular starting point guard in this league?

Sheldon, the former Ohio State superstar, was a rotational piece in Dallas last year. She started 26 of 40 games, averaging 5.4 points and 2.5 assists per game. Her shooting was inefficient on most nights, especially from beyond the arc, but she proved herself to be an effective distributor while on the floor. More importantly, she fits that culture that Meziane wants to build. She’s a grinder, an energy player and someone that’s going to give maximum effort at all times. I don’t anticipate her to magically come out of the gate averaging 15+ points per game this year but I think she’s going to surprise a lot of folks unfamiliar with her time in Columbus. If she’s able to rediscover her shooting stroke, her passing and defense will fit in well and potentially establish her as a piece to build around in Connecticut.