Happy Monday, Ball-Knowers!

We try our best to not be prisoners of the moment here at No Cap Space. Are there hot takes that we like to get off? Agendas that we choose to hold dear? Absolutely.

The schedule dictates that a column be written today but it’s always a bit of a challenge to try and sound authoritative about anyone or anything after just a game or two. So this Monday is about doing things a little differently. Below are five of my overreactions from the weekend. Those takes where you feel awfully confident that they’ll be proven right over the course of a season but there’s no real consequence if they’re proven wrong.

It’s early. So let’s have fun with it!

Tyler wrapped up Friday’s first slate of games…

Chauny joined up to break down Dallas’ win over Indiana…

And Tyler took the ISO after Atlanta’s season opening win…

Overreaction number one is that the Dallas Wings are officially world beaters and WNBA title contenders.

Yes, it’s one game against the Indiana Fever and there’s a lot of season ahead. But there’s three takeaways that I had from that Saturday opener on ABC that give me reason to irrationally buy in after one small sample size.

For starters, Arike Ogunbowale is working in this system. For years, the Notre Dame graduate has put up gaudy numbers on a team that either was lottery bound or hanging somewhere around the middle of the playoff pack. At no point in the last five years would you have been a fool for asking if the veteran guard was just a usage merchant or if she was really just waiting for a star to join her in Dallas.

After one game, she and Paige Bueckers looked perfectly in sync, slowing down Caitlin Clark on the defensive end while combining for 42 points on the other end. What has to make you feel good as a Wings fan is Arike’s efficiency and distribution. Add that to Jess Shepard looking like a more-than-serviceable frontcourt centerpiece and you’ve got a starting five that can clearly compete with the top half of the WNBA.

There’s obvious kinks to work out. Alanna Smith got into early foul trouble and was a nonfactor in the season opener. Fudd similarly was pretty quiet as well. But if game one is often used as an indictment on whether or not a system looks like it’s working well, then Dallas passed with flying colors. If this is the baseline, then we can have the Wings as title contender conversation.

Overreaction two may not even be an overreaction: Nick U’Ren might just be the best scouting General Manager in the WNBA.

I mean, where the hell does he keep finding these players?! Last season it was Lexi Held, Kitija Laksa, Kathryn Westbeld and a whole host of other supporting pieces that powered a WNBA Finals run. The offseason hits, Satou Sabally leaves and it felt like Phoenix was just going to try and run it back with the pieces they had.

Then came the offseason acquisitions…

A training camp contract for French Cup winner Noemie Brochant. 28 year old Serbian wing Jovana Nogic still doesn’t even have a headshot on the Phoenix Mercury website. Kiana Williams was an indispensable piece of Stanford’s 2021 NCAA championship run but has struggled to find a regular spot in the W.

Even Mercury fans could be forgiven for wondering if Alyssa Thomas and a bevy of unheralded supporting cast members had the juice to do this again. After two games, we’re seeing that the ceiling is indeed a WNBA Finals contender yet again. And this is without Monique Akoa Makani and Valeriane Ayayi, who are still fulfilling their overseas obligations. Sami Whitcomb is also still nursing an injury so this Mercury team that vaporized Las Vegas on their ring night still isn’t at full strength.

The difference maker so far has been Nogic, who has been shooting lights out to open the season. It all comes back to U’Ren, who is relying on a robust scouting operation and a unique eye for talent to put as many shooters around Thomas as possible. Will we see the same limitations for this team come October? Possibly. But it’s clear that the Mercury GM has figured out a system that works and is proving himself to be a difference maker as a talent evaluator. In a league where scouting in front offices can still be hit and miss, U’Ren is a legitimate X-Factor as an executive.

Overreaction number three is a real ‘take a bow’ moment for one Tyler DeLuca because the L.A. Sparks look like a mess.

As if their second half collapse against Las Vegas wasn’t bad enough, head coach Lynne Roberts is now in hot water for her rather frank assessment of former No. 2 overall draft pick Cameron Brink and her inability to stay out of foul trouble. Brink, it should be noted, is coming off an injury and has played just 35 career WNBA games. The issue is whether or not she can earn the trust of her coaches to be on the floor without fouling and what she does with the minutes she does get.

Past the individual drama, this team just doesn’t look very good. Kelsey Plum is a shooting guard trying to be a point guard, with predictable results. In a lot of ways, the Sparks look like a more modern NBA team in the sense that they prioritize ISO ball without a lot of additional movement. Plum puts the ball in the hoop, that much is true. But if early games are a way to prove if a system has been adopted (see: Wings, Dallas) then they can also be windows into how much work there is to be done.

Lynne Roberts’ teams at Utah rarely ran well with a defined big in the frontcourt, instead seeing their greatest success when they could spread the floor with a versatile shooter-and-rebounder like Alissa Pili starting at center. It feels like they’re trying to do something similar with the combination of Nneka Ogwumike and Dearica Hamby but there has to be ways to get them involved and that has to start with the point guard. Unfortunately, Plum is a guard that has never really, at any point in her college or WNBA career, been the initiator of an offense in that respect.

So as Brink appears to already be floundering and Rickea Jackson is singing the praises of the Chicago Sky, it does make one wonder about the decisions this front office has made in the last few years. Was trading out of the second pick in order to get Plum really worth it? Is the window of this team being maybe three years at most worth all the capital acquisition? And, most importantly, what happens if it doesn’t work?

There’s still a lot of time but the doomers are out to an early one game lead here.

If anything, the overreaction to Golden State came during the preseason and caused us to forget a singularly immutable fact: the Valkyries are really damn good.

If you’ve been reading the newsletter, you’ve probably read my critique of Valkyries General Manager Ohemaa Nyanin and how she handled a lot of this truncated offseason. I don’t think the moves themselves warranted concerns about her job security, as the inaugural season of Golden State women’s basketball had earned her the benefit of the doubt. It was more of an ‘issue on the horizon’ thing, where if you continue to treat players that aren’t aligned with your vision as disposable, at what point does that start to become part of your reputation as an organization?

The flip side of that is that ultimately no one will care if you continue to win. Through two games, I would imagine Nyanin, head coach Natalie Nakase and the rest of the Valks front office feel pretty vindicated. They managed to fend off the Seattle Storm and the inevitable ‘Flau’jae Revenge Game’ headlines and then followed that up with a win over a Phoenix Mercury that dismantled the Aces just a couple of nights prior. Gabby Williams’ ceiling and superstar status is still a legitimate question but what’s not up for debate is just how high her floor is. Can you win a title with her as your number one option? We’ll find out here pretty soon.

Past Williams, you’re seeing development of several players that should be cause for optimism in the Bay Area. Laeticia Amihere has already managed to make her presence known in the first two games of the year while Janelle Salaun has been a sparkplug off the bench, averaging 20 points per game in the first pair of matchups. Veronica Burton doesn’t look like she’s been figured out or in danger of a sophomore slump.

The long term question is whether or not that means this team can be more than the bottom half playoff seed they were last season.

Now, this might be the biggest overreaction of all: We’re in year three of the 2024 WNBA Draft class. How much better have they all gotten since entering the league?

Caitlin Clark did a little bit better in the turnover department in her season opener but the handle did look a bit sloppy. She still also doesn’t seem to want to go to her left or find places in the mid-range to operate as a shooter. Now, it’s worth noting we’re grading Clark on a harder curve. The Fever guard finished with 20 points, five rebounds and seven assists but when you’re on a track to be the best in the game, your margin for error will be slimmer and it’s okay for us to draw attention to that fact.

Yet her performance did open an interesting discussion this weekend about the 2024 draft class and just how much they are developing. A lot of them are very, very good, mind you. This isn’t about saying these players are going to be busts or that they’ll never reach their potential. Instead, it’s about seeing the same mistakes in year three that existed in year one.

Cam Brink still fouls way too much. Angel Reese is still bringing the ball down to her waist instead of keeping it up high. Rickea Jackson is still having defensive issues.

It’s a really unique situation because a lot of this class were really good leaving college and already seen as high-floor/high-ceiling players. So how do we assess a player that is probably doing just fine for where they’re at but not showing signs of improvement in problem areas? That little bit of extra margin that takes you from being a star to a superstar or a superstar to an all-time star?

This, out of everything in the column, is probably the biggest overreaction of all. But it’s absolutely worth following as we get into the 50 career games sample for most of the ‘24 class and the grace stops being extended. Eventually, the game will be the game and the standard will be the standard.

44.45 Fouls Per Game

80% 3PT

3 Chipped Teeth

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