Five Out: Atlanta Dreamin', Stout Sparks and the WNBA's Injury Problem That Won't Go Away...

After a busy WNBA weekend, the landscape of the league appears to be shifting. Plus, a leaguewide injury problem that may be a legitimate discussion at the CBA negotiation table...

We got some fantastic matchups over the weekend in the WNBA. The top four teams in the standings gave us variations of potential finals matchups while the New York Liberty and Los Angeles Sparks may have given us one of the best quarters of basketball all season long.

There’s a lot to get to in the column and a special link for women’s basketball fans writ large. As some of you may know, our NCS crew was down in Atlanta for Overtime Select earlier in the summer talking with the top up-and-coming high school players in the country. Today you’ll be able to find our interview with recent USC commit and #1 player in the class of 2026 Saniyah Hall on YouTube and right here as well!

Now, onto the column!

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1. Atlanta is a championship contender provided one thing happens…

We may need to start having a serious conversation about the Atlanta Dream as dark horse WNBA Finals contenders. Karl Smesko’s ‘ATLytics’ movement has taken root and now the Dream have managed to grab wins against New York, Minnesota and Phoenix in the last month. While there are still some games where they short circuit in uncharacteristic ways, Atlanta seems to have figured out a few things that allow them to utilize their unique combination of size, speed, spacing and shooting.

What takes them from fun potential spoiler to legitimate championship unit is Brittney Griner. The 6’8 center, who felt a bit washed at certain points this season, spent the last weekend finding a vintage version of herself. Against Phoenix, the 34 year old finished with 17 points and 8 rebounds on 8/12 shooting and followed that up with a career high 22 points on 8/13 shooting in a road win over league leading Minnesota. While she may not be the elite rebounder she used to be, Griner’s size and touch around the rim is still world class when she wants it to be. If they’re able to get a consistent 15+ points per game out of her come playoff time, they’re going to be extremely difficult to stop.

Another thing to keep in mind (and maybe something worth watching from a narrative standpoint) is Rhyne Howard is still out with a left knee injury she sustained before the All-Star break. While the former 2022 first overall pick has averaged 16.5 points, 5 rebounds and 4.5 assists per game, she has been a bit of a streaky shooter in an offense that offers the greenest of green lights. But in her place, Jordin Canada has stepped up and become a solid secondary option to Allisha Gray. The most recent pair of wins make me feel like Atlanta has the juice to be a spoiler in what appears to be a two team race for the WNBA title but I’m really curious if that continues when Howard comes back.

2. The Sparks have turned a corner and are now a legit playoff team…

Los Angeles is currently surging more than any team in the WNBA. Rickea Jackson’s buzzer beater gave the Sparks their fifth straight win and sixth of their last seven. It’s pretty remarkable given that L.A. was 5-13 in the not-so-distant past, looking like they couldn’t stop a nosebleed defensively while still running into issues on the other side of the ball.

So, what’s with the resurgence? There’s a couple factors at play.

I don’t think it’s a surprise that Rae Burrell’s return to the lineup has helped immensely. Since she came back from injury on July 3rd, the Sparks are 6-2 with their only losses coming to the top two teams in the WNBA. Burrell is a value add on the defensive side and is good to hit some big shots when you need it. Rickea Jackson has also reasserted herself as an indispensable part of this team after a rocky start with new head coach Lynne Roberts. Since the start of the month, Jackson has been in double-digits all but twice and is progressing as the elite scorer we knew she was when she left Tennessee. Interestingly enough, her resurgence has directly coincided with Sarah Ashlee Barker’s near-total departure from the lineup. Since the open of July, the rookie out of Alabama hasn’t played more than 8 minutes in a single game.

Most importantly, Cameron Brink looks closer and closer to returning to the floor and actually logging some game minutes. All signs point to her 2025 debut some time in the next two weeks and she’ll provide an interior defensive presence that this team hasn’t had at any point this year. But with Brink and Azura Stevens patrolling the paint, the Sparks might finally look like what we expected coming into the season.

Lynne Roberts got a lot of deserved flack at the start of the year but my contention was always that she was going to figure it out. You’d be hard pressed to look at what she’s been able to do over the course of her coaching career and find a place where she didn’t eventually succeed. The same seems to be the case here in L.A. If Brink returns and looks like her old self defensively, watch out.

3. How does this all end for the Dallas Wings?

I don’t want to bury Chris Koclanes just yet because I do think that the addition of Li Yueru stabilized what was an otherwise incomplete roster to start the year. After the 1-11 start, the Wings are 6-7 since that rock bottom game in Vegas that led to the trade for Li. Within the broader context of the league, that would put Dallas right in the middle of the pack.

But there’s just too much here simmering under the surface that makes me wonder if wins and losses really matter all that much. DiJonai Carrington once again had an interesting pregame quote in which she seemed to call into question her move to a more bench/rotation role and having to get used to that. There was the viral clip of Koclanes drawing up a play while Paige Bueckers and Haley Jones gave us meme worthy reactions. And then there’s our own Tyler DeLuca’s reporting from Dallas over the weekend, where the jumbotron crew showed not one but two fans with either signs or shirts saying ‘We Want Nola’. For those unaware, Nola Henry is one of the assistant coaches on this team, a former coach in Unrivaled and seemingly the only person that is able to get through to Carrington during games (at least from what we’ve seen when we’ve been on press row for Wings games).

Maybe the Wings finish the year a shade under .500 and GM Curt Miller can make the argument that the roster just needed that additional center, that Koclanes had some growing pains and that the future is bright with Bueckers, Aziaha James and JJ Quinerly. But if the locker room is already fractured and the culture is in tatters, does the record ultimately matter? For her part, Paige has been exceptionally polished and professional through this whole process. The issue is that we might be past a point of no return. Dallas already offloaded NaLyssa Smith (which was an understandable trade, given the return) but it doesn’t seem as though Carrington is particularly happy with her role. Arike Ogunbowale remains a bit of an enigma while the rest of the Wings roster just tries to make the best of the situation.

So how does it all end after this year? I’m genuinely not sure. The actual on court product points to Koclanes improving incrementally and the team looking more competitive with a competent center in the starting five. At the same time, there’s more than just basketball that goes into making a successful team and franchise. If you have a generational player in Paige Bueckers, can you truly gamble that wins will solve everything?

4. First Team All-WNBA is quietly becoming a fascinating battle…

Speaking of Paige, I want to be on record and say that I was wrong about her. I had a feeling she’d be an All-Star caliber rookie with a high floor but maybe not the same top end ceiling as someone like Caitlin Clark. And yet, here we are, a little over halfway through the year and Bueckers is making a legit case for All-WNBA this season. She’s scored in double-digits in 19 out of 20 games this year, limits turnovers, facilitates the offense well and is now incorporating some post-play into her game that I thought was previously unimaginable for a player of her frame.

The numbers don’t support a first team All-WNBA case yet but it’s clear she is more than ready to take over this league and that her and Caitlin is a legit guard rivalry for the league to build around for years to come (provided the Wings get better in the W/L column).

Generally, the First Team All-WNBA race is becoming a really interesting discussion and totally dependent on what you value as a fan, voter or analyst of the game. For starters, the awards are positionless so realistically you could have five forwards make the first team this year. When you actually game out the numbers, it’s entirely possible.

Napheesa Collier is a lock, as is Alyssa Thomas (who has an interesting MVP case to make…maybe more on that later this week). Even though A’ja Wilson hasn’t had the same type of season she’s had the last couple years, I still think she’s a first teamer at 21.6 points and 9.1 rebounds per game while keeping the Aces in the playoff picture. So that leaves us with two spots left. Breanna Stewart’s numbers support a case and, while she’s still nursing that leg injury, I have a hard time imaging the WNBA press not keeping her in the first team mix (especially if the Liberty start to drop games like they did against the Sparks on Saturday).

After that, we have some really fascinating breakdowns…

Kelsey Mitchell: 20.2 PPG, 1.8 RPG, 2.8 APG

Kelsey Plum: 20.1 PPG, 3.2 RPG, 5.9 APG

Sabrina Ionescu: 19.3 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 5.8 APG

Allisha Gray: 18.7 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 3.9 APG

Paige Bueckers: 18.1 PPG, 3.9 RPG, 5.6 APG

Satou Sabally: 18.0 PPG, 7.0 RPG, 2.6 APG

Dearica Hamby: 17.6 PPG, 8.0 RPG, 3.5 APG

Skylar Diggins: 17.2 PPG, 2.5 RPG, 5.6 APG

Nneka Ogwumike: 17.1 PPG, 7.2 RPG, 2.2 APG

Kelsey Mitchell is the reason Indiana is still winning with Caitlin Clark out of the lineup and may finish the year averaging more than 20.2 points per game. Kelsey Plum may be the vanguard of a resurgent Sparks team alongside Hamby. Skylar and Nneka are the engines of a Storm team that, while inconsistent, is still in the deep playoff mix. Allisha Gray is having a career year with a dark horse finals team in Atlanta. Sabrina Ionescu has improved her defense and, even with lower shooting percentages, feels like a more complete player this year. Satou is an indispensable piece of Phoenix with AT and Paige is Paige.

With one spot left (in my opinion) for first team, I’m really interested in who makes a push as we start to hit the home stretch of the season.

5. Let’s break down the WNBA injury problem…

Let’s start this with a tweet from Rebecca Lobo that made the rounds over the weekend…

You didn’t read that wrong. 2.7 days between games on average for WNBA stars. Further research would show that less than 2% of WNBA players take games off for load management compared to 20% of NBA players, who have a higher average of days between games.

Simply put, this shit is not sustainable.

What does increased TV inventory and availability of the product matter if people are regularly watching games where the top stars are legitimately hurt? This isn’t a situation like the NBA’s where the onus goes to the players for missing games, this is solely on the league and I’m unsure if commissioner Cathy Engelbert understands the severity of the situation.

Beyond the discussions of revenue sharing and salary minimums, if I was a WNBA player I’d be advocating for a strike on the basis that the league keeps adding games without stretching the season out of fear of being overtaken by the NFL (that’s a real concern, by the way). The calculus has always been that pushing the league further into the fall or winter will mean TV ratings will almost disappear in the maw of football season where the weekends are dominated by college on Saturdays and the NFL on Sundays. But if the money for the league is made in the summer, what good is it to condense the year to such a degree that people aren’t tuning in because their favorite players are on the injury report?

Just look at the list of players out for the season…

Georgia Amoore, Ty Harris, Jordan Horston, Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, Nika Muhl, Karlie Samuelson, Katie Lou Samuelson, Kayla Thornton and Courtney Vandersloot.

That’s before we get to the stars that have picked up injuries and missed action this season. A list, mind you, that includes Caitlin Clark, Paige Bueckers, Breanna Stewart, Jonquel Jones, Napheesa Collier, Angel Reese, Rhyne Howard and so many more.

If you have to extend the season, then do it. Who cares about the NFL’s ever encroaching 1870’s style manifest destiny style-replacement of the entire sports landscape? Ask the NBA or NCAA how much the NFL cares if you try to work around their schedule? We now have Netflix NFL games on Christmas and Saturday matchups more and more regularly. At the end of the day, the WNBA needs to stand on their own two and understand the star power they have in the ecosystem.

Personally, that sounds like where this all ends. A longer season that ends later in the calendar that effectively wipes out Euroleague or 3x3 commitments like Unrivaled but results in more pay and higher revenue share. That feels like the logical endpoint but labor negotiations, as we know, are typically illogical. I just hope that whatever choices are made at the bargaining table lead to a more sustainable season for these players. More injuries isn’t good for anyone.