A WNBA Semifinals Game Two Preview: Phoenix vs. Minnesota , Indiana vs. Las Vegas
With just four teams competing for a WNBA championship, the stakes are higher and the games more intense. Ahead of game two of Lynx vs. Mercury and Aces vs. Fever, we break down what to watch for.
The WNBA Semifinals continue on this Tuesday night with the Indiana Fever taking on the Las Vegas Aces and the Minnesota Lynx playing host to the Phoenix Mercury. As it currently stands, the Fever and Lynx hold a one game lead in their respective series with a chance to sit on the edge of a Finals berth.
Every night after each playoff game No Cap Space is live on YouTube, which you can find here. If you need a game one recap, you can tap in to our postgame show below.
Phoenix Mercury @ Minnesota Lynx
MIN Leads Series 1-0
7:30 PM ET, ESPN
A Quick Overview:
Game one was a tale of two halves as Phoenix hung tough in the Target Center before being thoroughly run off the floor in the second half. Minnesota pulled together after the break, outscoring the Mercury 42-22 on the back of a classic Courtney Williams performance (11/19 from the field) and another consistent outing by Napheesa Collier. Now, with a second game at home before a potential elimination matchup goes to Phoenix, the Lynx have a chance to land a serious body blow. The Mercury came off a full three game series vs. New York (as well as the associated travel) while Minnesota managed a couple extra days off after sweeping Golden State. Those may feel like small margins for recovery but it’ll matter in what looks to be another physical and high energy matchup.
Make-or-Break Matchup:
Satou Sabally, once again, will be under the microscope in game two. Much like the opening round series against New York, the Mercury wing had a poor shooting effort out of the gate vs. Minnesota. You can say it, you can see it and somehow it keeps being proven true but you just can’t have Sabally not shoot well and expect to win. Much like a Sabrina Ionescu or Rhyne Howard, Satou is a sparkplug who can power a team’s energy or sap it on the back of a few bricks. The good news for Mercury fans is that after that game one performance against Phoenix, Sabally averaged over 40% shooting from the field the rest of the series. If she’s able to adjust the way she needs to, the Mercury should be able to hold serve.
Players To Watch (Phoenix):
While plenty of criticism went Sabally’s way after the game one loss, it’s also worth noting that one of Phoenix’s most consistent role players has had a couple of high-volume/low-efficiency nights in the playoffs. Monique Akoa Makani has been one of the most effective bang-for-your-buck scorers in the WNBA this season, flirting at one point with a 50-40-90 season of her own. But in game one against Minnesota, the Phoenix rookie went 1/6, eclipsed only by her 2/11 performance against New York (also in game one). She may not be a regular double digit scorer but Akoa Makani has a couple of decent nights in the tank if she can get going.
DeWanna Bonner will also be needed for a variety of reasons, from scoring to defensive length. This is exactly the type of series the Mercury brought her in for. Her versatility, penchant for big buckets and connection with Alyssa Thomas in pick-and-roll situations are desperately needed for a team that is already at a size disadvantage. Can’t have 0fer performances at this juncture.
Players To Watch (Minnesota):
It’s hard to complain much about what Minnesota did in game one, although I guess I’m interested in whether or not we get a big Natisha Hiedeman game (she shot 2/8 in the opening matchup). Beyond that, the Lynx backcourt of Courtney Williams and Kayla McBride did exactly what they needed to do and will be expected to do more of the same. Not only did they shoot the ball pretty well (a combined 17/36 from the field and 5/11 from 3PT) but they made life hard for Kahleah Copper, Akoa Makani and Sabally. The expectation is that Alyssa Thomas will get hers but stopping the scorers on the other side of AT’s passes will be key to getting another win in the Target Center.
Indiana Fever @ Las Vegas Aces
IND Leads Series 1-0
9:30 PM ET, ESPN
A Quick Overview:
In arguably one of the biggest single-game stunners of the playoffs so far, the Fever not only managed to upset the Aces but did so on the road and in convincing fashion. Indiana came out of halftime and outscored Vegas 28-19, effectively keeping one of the hottest teams in the W at an arms length the rest of the way. A’ja Wilson, fresh off a fourth MVP honor, was stymied by fellow former South Carolina Gamecock Aliyah Boston and finished the game with 16 points on just 6/22 shooting. If there were ever a game in which Wilson’s value was put on display, it would be this one. On the other end, Kelsey Mitchell and Odyssey Sims dominated the Aces backcourt combining for 51 points on 19/36 shooting.
Make-or-Break Matchup:
The Gamecock battle in the frontcourt is what will ultimately decide this series. While Aliyah Boston didn’t have the greatest offensive performance either (just six points on 3/9 shooting), it was her defense and activity on the boards that made all the difference. Holding Wilson to 6/22 shooting from the field was a massive win and Boston’s five assists also helped keep the ball moving offensively, opening up driving lanes and quick pull-up spots for the likes of Sims and Mitchell. It’s extremely rare to see a player of A’ja’s caliber have two dud games back-to-back (and realistically, the fact that 16 and 13 is a dud for her is a testament to her greatness) so I anticipate a big game two performance out of the league MVP. The other big question in the front court is how NaLyssa Smith is able to handle Natasha Howard. It’s really the only mismatch on the floor that favors the Fever and may be a challenge for Becky Hammon to solve in a series.
Players To Watch (Indiana):
Howard is the x-factor of this entire series, in my opinion. Her activity on the boards and efficiency shooting the ball in game one was massive and it’ll be needed in every game ahead. The former WNBA champion finished with 12 points and 11 rebounds on Sunday. If Indiana can get that baseline level of production out of Howard, it could spell major trouble for Vegas. While we know Kelsey Mitchell is going to score, her backcourt running mate Odyssey Sims is the wild card. She scored 16 points in the closeout matchup against Atlanta and opened with 17 on 7/13 shooting against the Aces. A big piece of that (and Mitchell’s) success came down to getting favorable switches and being able to draw bigs out into space. No doubt Vegas will have something different schematically for game two and Sims will need to adjust accordingly.
Players To Watch (Las Vegas):
Wilson can’t go 6/22 again, obviously. But it’s pretty remarkable how valuable she is when you look at the fact that all the other Aces shot, for the most part, pretty well and they still got run off the home floor. If they don’t have A’ja playing at an MVP clip, they just may not have the juice on either end. To that end, I expect to see her have a big bounce back performance tonight. She’ll need a bit of help from NaLyssa Smith, who has certainly helped Wilson in the frontcourt but needs to dial it up a notch against her former team. The Aces are also going to need a big night out of Jewell Loyd as well. She finished 1/5 from the field and 1/4 from three while picking up five fouls in the process. Not what you want from your centerpiece off the bench. But Loyd runs hot and cold so as easily as I could see her having another quiet night, she also could explode for 20. Such is the game.