There are five games or less in the WNBA regular season and we are being set up for one of the best finishes we’ve had in recent league history. There’s a fight for the second seed, the sixth seed and the eighth seed. No more than two games separate the groupings of teams in the mix for those positions so, naturally, that means there are a lot of games with stakes this upcoming weekend. In keeping with our end-of-season content offerings, we’ve got our Thursday recap and weekend preview available on podcast and video form on YouTube (you can watch it at the bottom of the email here if you prefer in video form).
It’s been a little light this week on the paid tier content, I know. But rest assured, this week was about getting interviews and the legwork to make sure your September is stuffed to the gills with insider content, analysis and some fantastic guests and profiles. If there were ever a time to get a free trial or hop on the Ball-Knower tier for a month, now is the time!
Now, let’s get to the Watch Guide!
Friday, August 29
Dallas Wings (9-30) vs. Atlanta Dream (24-14): 7:30 PM ET, ION
Why It’s Worth a Watch: In short, there’s not a ton relative to the later ION matchup. If Indiana are the walking wounded, the Wings may be the walking dead. Paige Bueckers is questionable to play, Luisa Geiselsoder is out, Aziaha Hames and Haley Jones are doubtful while Arike Ogunbowale, JJ Quinerly and Li Yueru are fully done. I anticipate Atlanta to play a lot of their bench here and roll to a pretty easy win.
What to Watch For: If you’re watching for some specific scheme things, I’m really curious how much burn Te-Hina Paopao continues to get for Atlanta. Jordin Canada is listed as doubtful with a right hamstring injury and so it means more late season minutes for the South Carolina rookie. Any time on the floor at this point in the year is important for your younger players. In that same vein, I expect heavy doses of Naz Hillmon too. Plus, if there were ever a time to pad some stats for a continued Sixth Woman of the Year campaign, it would be now.
Must Watch Score: 7/10
Indiana Fever (20-18) vs. Los Angeles Sparks (17-19): 10:00 PM ET, ION
Why It’s Worth a Watch: This game, more or less, decides whether or not L.A. stays in the playoff race. The Sparks don’t have the easiest schedule the rest of the way and they currently are 1.5 games back from the 8th seed. They need to win out and get a bit of help in the process. But if you don’t beat Indiana on Friday, none of that matters all that much. Indiana, meanwhile, needs to keep a surging Seattle Storm at bay while seeing if they can inch closer to a potential fifth seed currently occupied by 24-15 New York.
What to Watch For: The frontcourt battle between Aliyah Boston and Cam Brink should be interesting, provided Brink stays out of early foul trouble. While it has the potential to be a bit sloppy, I anticipate a pacey game that could end up being pretty high scoring. Some of that is that this game involves the Sparks, who basically promise you track meet games every night, and some of that is that both teams will be playing for their playoff lives. Games with stakes. That’s what we want at this point in the year.
Must Watch Score: 8.5/10
Saturday, August 30
Minnesota Lynx (30-8) vs. Connecticut Sun (10-28): 7:00 PM ET, NBATV
Why It’s Worth a Watch: On paper, this game feels like a dud. But look under the hood and you’ll see that Connecticut has won five of their last seven games and the only losses are to New York by 2 and Indiana by 6. In short, underestimate the Sun at your own peril. Minnesota has their full complement of players so I’m not saying it’s got real upset potential. At the same time it wouldn’t surprise me if this game was close heading into the third or even fourth quarter.
What to Watch For: If you haven’t been watching Leila Lacan this year, you’ve really been missing out. She’s dropped 22 points in each of her last two games and has proven herself to be an insanely pesky defender on the other end of the ball. Her against either Courtney Williams or Kayla McBride will be a blast. The other matchup to watch here is also Napheesa Collier vs. Tina Charles. Not only a UConn battle in Uncasville but Collier has to continue pouring in MVP caliber performances as the race tightens up.
Must Watch Score: 7.5/10
Washington Mystics (16-23) vs. Golden State Valkyries (19-18): 8:30 PM ET, League Pass
Why It’s Worth a Watch: I think it’s fair to say Washington is out of the playoff picture at this point but the Mystics are good enough to spoil the party for any number of teams. Golden State has had some trouble against top teams lately but did manage to beat Washington 88-83 just a couple weeks. The Valks playoff lives are on the line this weekend too and I’d be stunned if they didn’t come out with the same level of energy head coach Natalie Nakase seems to instill in them every night.
What to Watch For: Sonia Citron and Kiki Iriafen are always worth the price of admission but the games are won and lost based on Shakira Austin’s performance. I really like what she brings but there’s definitely a Tina Charles/Natasha Howard ball stopper element to her game. If Austin is able to hit her shots, the Mystics should role. On the other end, keep an eye out for Kate Martin. The Valkyries guard is finally rounding into the form of a player Golden State has been looking for all season and there’s no better time to peak than right now.
Must Watch Score: 8/10
Chicago Sky (9-29) vs. Seattle Storm (21-19): 9:00 PM ET, League Pass
Why It’s Worth a Watch: This is a quietly fascinating matchup. Not only do we get a great frontcourt battle between Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso but we also get to see if the Sky are going to keep their heads in this one after a brutal loss to Phoenix on Thursday. In that game, it looked as though head coach Tyler Marsh kind of panicked and suggested Reese miss her final foul shot, down 2, as opposed to stretching the game which ultimately led to the loss. How they respond will be interesting in terms of the broader discussion about the Sky’s future culture. Additionally, the Storm are still in a dogfight for the playoffs and that sixth seed. Any win is a good one and losing here can hurt a lot.
What to Watch For: Angel vs. Nneka, Kamilla vs. Ezi, The World vs. Dominique Malonga, what more can you want? If Seattle is connecting from three, this game is going to be over rather quickly and given that Chicago’s perimeter defense is one of their weakest points, it could get ugly. But if it stays reasonably close, the frontcourt battle here is going to be awesome. One thing you can say about Angel: she keeps her team competitive no matter what. It wouldn’t shock me that, even as the fanbase seems to be eating itself this morning, she brings the Sky out and they compete on Saturday.
Must Watch Score: 7.5/10
New York Liberty (24-15) vs. Phoenix Mercury (24-14): 10:00 PM ET, NBATV
Why It’s Worth a Watch: Game of the Weekend and probably one of the most important games of the year on a number of fronts. New York has Stewie back and is hoping to have Sabrina or Jonquel Jones back as well. Phoenix is fully healthy. Both teams are still fighting each other (and Atlanta/Vegas) for the second seed and every single game will feel like a playoff series. Meanwhile, Alyssa Thomas is fighting to assert her own MVP candidacy in a crowded field of A’ja Wilson and Phee. If she drops a 17+ point triple-double against the Liberty, I think it becomes pretty hard to argue against her case.
What to Watch For: AT vs. Stewie is always a box office matchup and the potential for this to be a banger of a matchup is high. Satou Sabally needs to have a big game while Kahleah Copper is coming off a 28 point performance on Thursday. New York’s gotten good minutes out of Emma Meesseman, who has been an effective scorer and stopgap while JJ has been out of the lineup. How Marinne Johannes and the rest of New York’s backcourt fares against Phoenix will be the difference maker in this one.
Must Watch Score: 9.5/10
Sunday, August 31
Washington Mystics (16-23) vs. Los Angeles Sparks (17-19): 8:00 PM ET, League Pass
Why It’s Worth a Watch: Oh boy can Washington spoil some dreams here. If L.A. manages to get a win on Friday, they have to go through a plucky Mystics team on Sunday to stay in the playoff hunt. There is some wiggle room for the Sparks (provided they beat Indiana and Golden State loses to Washington on Saturday) but the general message from Lynne Roberts has to be “win and in” over and over again until the end of the regular season. Plus, you get Cam Brink vs. Kiki Iriafen matchup. Who doesn’t want to see that?
What to Watch For: Check in with me in three years when this game (provided everyone stays with their current teams) is the best frontcourt matchup in the league. Shakira Austin, Kiki Iriafen, Cam Brink represent the future of bigs in the WNBA. All four are just insanely athletic, versatile and generally fun players to watch. Even now, while they still aren’t collectively at their ceiling, you’re guaranteed to see a bit of a show. Add in the likely Sonia Citron vs. Kelsey Plum assignment and we’re really cooking.
Must Watch Score: 8/10
Indiana Fever (20-18) vs. Golden State Valkyries (19-18): 8:30 PM ET, NBATV
Why It’s Worth a Watch: There’s a fun Premier League “Decision Day” quality to the Sunday schedule. Both games directly impact each other so if you have a split screen option on your TV or phone, this is the time to use it. Let me just list the scenarios here…
Scenario A: Indiana 20-19, Golden State 20-18, Los Angeles 18-19
Scenario B: Indiana 20-19, Golden State 19-19, Los Angeles 18-19
Scenario C: Indiana 21-18, Golden State 19-19, Los Angeles 18-20
Scenario D: Indiana 21-18, Golden State 20-19, Los Angeles 18-20
There isn’t a single scenario where the result of this game isn’t absolutely vital to at least one team. It’s exactly what we want at the end of the season.
What to Watch For: Janelle Salaun is a matchup nightmare for so many teams and I’m interested in who Stephanie White decides to throw at her. These are the types of games where you do miss Sophie Cunningham’s defensive presence and her versatility. Not to mention, the Fever are going to have to find an answer for a surging Veronica Burton who has making one heck of a claim to Most Improved Player. Her vs. Kelsey Mitchell will be fun. Two very different play styles that find success all the same.
Must Watch Score: 8.5/10
Monday, September 1
Atlanta Dream (24-14) vs. Connecticut Sun (10-28): 1:00 PM ET, League Pass
Why It’s Worth a Watch: As recently as two weeks ago, I’d have told you that Atlanta having Connecticut three times in their last six games was the best pre-postseason gift imaginable. Now, it might be a nightmare. To have to get a team with absolutely nothing to lose, young legs and a desire to build a positive culture, multiple times before the playoffs is a tough ask. If you decide to look at with a glass-half-full mindset, it’s a perfect warm up for Atlanta and the intensity they’re likely to see once we start getting closer to October.
What to Watch For: I’m really hoping to see Rhyne Howard get into a rhythm. We know how good she can be when the shots are falling but I think she’s entering the streaky shooter tier of WNBA guard (I’d say players like Arike, Sabrina and Satou are in this grouping). Mind you, that’s still an All-WNBA player, it’s just that the difference between that level and MVP level (to me) comes down to consistency. I’d love to see more of it from her.
Must Watch Score: 7.5/10
Dallas Wings (9-30) vs. Minnesota Lynx (30-8): 8:00 PM ET, NBATV
Why It’s Worth a Watch: Whew man, this could get really ugly. I hate writing off teams but I think, at a certain point, you can kind of look at a game and guess the result with decent accuracy. In this case, it feels like the Lynx will jump out to an early lead and cruise.
What to Watch For: If you’re still wanting to watch for the MVP race, keep an eye on Napheesa Collier’s minutes. With the margins between Phee, A’ja and AT growing smaller, I’m curious how much Cheryl Reeve puts her thumb on the scales. If you’re crushing Dallas in the fourth quarter, for instance, do you pull Phee to preserve her health or do you let her rack up a line to help bolster the case? That alone might be worth watching.
Must Watch Score: 7/10
Los Angeles Sparks (17-19) vs. Seattle Storm (21-19): 10:00 PM ET, NBATV
Why It’s Worth a Watch: The watchability of this game will vary heavily depending on how the weekend has gone for L.A. If they’ve won two games and are sitting at 19-19, then this matchup becomes play-in adjacent. If the Sparks have dropped two games and are 17-21, then all that’s compelling is Seattle and whether or not they can string together wins to keep moving up the standings. Personally, I love chaos so I’m hopeful we have a situation in which we get a 19-19 Sparks vs. 21-20 Storm. That’s the mess I enjoy in my life.
What to Watch For: We’re going to think about Cam Brink and Dominique Malonga as the matchup but I’m actually curious if the assignment is Azura Stevens vs. Malonga. If it’s the latter, consider me more intrigued. Azura is still my Most Improved Player frontrunner and is a prototype for Dominique in a lot of ways. Consider too that we don’t often see matchups of 6’6 and 6’7 faceup players in the WNBA and that alone becomes reason to tune in. Beyond that, we have a shit talkers championship between Kelsey Plum and Skylar Diggins. Should be fun!
Must Watch Score: 8.5/10
If You Can Only Watch One Game A Day…
Friday, August 29 - Indiana Fever (20-18) vs. Los Angeles Sparks (17-19): 10:00 PM ET, ION
Saturday, August 30 - New York Liberty (24-15) vs. Phoenix Mercury (24-14): 10:00 PM ET, NBATV
Sunday, August 31 - Indiana Fever (20-18) vs. Golden State Valkyries (19-18): 8:30 PM ET, NBATV
Monday, September 1 - Los Angeles Sparks (17-19) vs. Seattle Storm (21-19): 10:00 PM ET, NBATV
Honorable Mentions -
Saturday, August 30 - Chicago Sky (9-29) vs. Seattle Storm (21-19): 9:00 PM ET, League Pass
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