Five Out: UConn's Awakening, JuJu's Ascendence and Cleveland might get a WNBA team!?

A week of massive games in the world of women's college basketball reminds us that the sport is still trending way up in the long term while the WNBA is about to secure some serious bags.

Courtesy: Austin Bigony // UConn Athletics

Man, what a week for women’s basketball. We finally saw the pearl colorway of Nike’s A’One signature shoe and they are beautiful. I’m not a big pink wearer but a versatile white shoe that I can craft a fit around? Yeah, that’s gonna be the big purchase in my household. In addition to a win for women’s basketball shoe culture, we also got classic after classic in college hoops as well as a narrative shifting game in the form of UConn’s blowout win over South Carolina.

There’s plenty to get to so let’s get rolling…

UConn’s blowout over South Carolina is what the rivalry needed…

I don’t buy too much into the idea that this loss told me anything I didn’t already know about South Carolina. Is the blowout nature of the loss eyebrow raising? Sure. But who doesn’t get got from time to time? Ultimately, we see that there are a couple players on the Gamecock roster that could use a bit more minutes and that the team really needs an Ashlyn Watkins to stabilize the frontcourt and put some fear into opponents in terms of driving to the hoop. While it’s been easy to not question Dawn Staley’s decision making since 2017 because of, well, *everything she’s done in the time since*, this is really the first time the critiques feel warranted. At the same time, I’m not writing SC’s obituary by any means. Losing Watkins, as we’ve long said here on No Cap Space, probably takes their ceiling down from a national champion to a Final Four contender. So I fully expect them to be in Tampa all the same.

What this game tells me is a couple things about UConn. First, that Geno Auriemma has still got a little feistiness in him. Second, that Sarah Strong is the next great UConn big and probably the first truly dominant one we’ve seen since Napheesa Collier. And Third, that there is still a legitimate rivalry here between the Huskies and Gamecocks. That last point is important because the sport needs rivalries to sustain itself and I credit both coaches for understanding that top programs should have a duty to schedule each other annually as a showcase for the sport the way Pat Summitt, Leon Barmore and others did in the formative years of women’s basketball.

But for the last few years, this particular rivalry has felt decidedly one-sided. In fact, a lot of them have in college hoops. Connecticut has been beating up on Tennessee. South Carolina has been getting the better of UConn. I hesitate to call LSU - SC a rivalry because we haven’t yet seen the Tigers beat the Gamecocks in the Kim Mulkey era. Even USC - UCLA is moving into that territory. But this year, we’ve seen surprises in a couple of these games and that’s what keeps things interesting. Beyond the game, narratives (when done correctly) build the sport constructively. And now, the pendulum of revenge swings back South Carolina’s way. That makes for next year to be appointment viewing again. And on, and on we go.

JuJu Watkins’ masterclass is a true women’s basketball legacy Moment…

Speaking of appointment viewing, that was some truly legendary stuff from JuJu Watkins this week. On both ends of the ball, in a packed Galen Center against the previously undefeated number one team in the country, Watkins put on a showcase for the ages and leading USC to their first win over an AP No. 1 for the first time since the 1982-1983 season. After much of the dialogue around her this season being ‘she’s great but when are we getting the JuJu game?’, the reigning National Freshman of the Year brought it on arguably the biggest stage to date for the Women of Troy.

It reminded me of a totally unrelated press conference I attended about ten years ago at CU Boulder. College Gameday was coming to town for Colorado vs. Arizona and a reporter asked legendary coach Digger Phelps about the recent rash of court storming attempts by fanbases all over the country. Phelps waxed poetic on a point that resonates even still, telling the writer that those types of moments are what make big money donors, generational fans and future university employees. The joy you get from unique sporting events at a college can be the thing that opens up an entirely new interest and pathway that you might not have ever considered before. I speak now from experience that my time in Oregon, covering the Ducks and the Beavers at the height of their power, is what took me from being someone that covered women’s basketball regularly to being someone that wanted to make it one of my primary beats.

So while Watkins heroics are amazing for the statistical history, its impact on the Women of Troy’s Big Ten regular season title hopes or even her own chase for a National Player of the Year honor, it meant so much more than that. When the lights were brightest, the arena was full and all the eyeballs of the sport were on her, she created converts. There are USC fans that might not have been women’s basketball diehards that might be now. Girls that left that arena with their parents wanting to know all they can about JuJu and the sport. It’s the same type of effect Caitlin Clark had nationally in the last two years. It captivates and makes you yearn for more. So while it was a huge game for Watkins and USC, it was even bigger for the sport. It felt like we’d been waiting for a performance like that this year and boy, on one of the biggest stages of the season, we absolutely got it.

Meanwhile, Mikayla Blakes isn’t conceding the National Freshman of the Year race…

What makes JuJu’s performance even better is knowing that the next generation is right behind her. Sarah Strong won the first of what will be many high profile battles with Joyce Edwards over the weekend. And while those two players have the power of elite basketball brands and massive fanbases behind them, the other National Freshman of the Year contender is a young woman from New Jersey who is playing for what our own

Greer Engonga

is starting to call ‘UConn South’. Mikayla Blakes’ initial 54 point explosion against Florida created some questions about the national freshman scoring record. Elena Delle Donne held that title but it opened up an interesting question: E.D.D. did it as a redshirt player at Delaware so is it the same as a true freshman putting up that number?

Well, we have our answer and that answer is…it doesn’t matter because the honor now belongs to Blakes solely. Where Watkins is a major story because of how she’s revived one of the biggest brands in women’s basketball, we still have yet to have a breakthrough star *create* a brand in the NIL era. The closest analogue we have currently is A’ja Wilson, whose commitment, signing and national title at South Carolina effectively put them on the map and turned them into one of the biggest, most engaged fanbases in the sport and one of the current programs of the moment. Vanderbilt, it should be noted, does have a lot of really good history. Hall of fame coach Jim Foster turned the Commodores into a national powerhouse in the 1990’s, making it to the second weekend in eight of the 11 years he spent in Nashville. Melanie Balcomb picked up that torch and ran with it, keeping Vandy in the AP Top 25 for most of the 2000’s. But since 2010, the program has been an average or worse program.

It’s taken a couple years but former UConn assistant Shea Ralph is really starting to build an elite program again down in Tennessee. With Blakes and Khamil Pierre leading the team, there is a lot of buzz and interest especially with regard to the freshman guard who can score in bunches. There was a time when Memorial Gymnasium was sold out for Vandy games and we’re still a ways away from that returning. The win over Florida was the largest SEC home game attendance that wasn’t against Tennessee since 2014. There were 4,737 people there. Memorial Gym’s capacity 14, 316.

So in this way, Blakes is going to be a fascinating case study in just how far along we are in women’s basketball. Can *any* elite player build or rebuild a fanbase from near scratch? It’s important to note South Carolina, Iowa and USC, for instance, all have very rich women’s basketball traditions in state that go beyond the universities themselves. Can Mikayla Blakes, who exists in a state where Vandy will always be in some type of shadow to the Lady Vols, capture the national imagination? It’s a great case study in seeing what the next evolution of women’s hoops breakout potential is.

Cleveland is getting a WNBA franchise!?

I’ll admit, I couldn’t believe it when I saw it. Cleveland? Really!? When there’s a lot of other sexier cities still on the WNBA’s board? And then I saw the expansion fee and promptly closed my mouth. Folks, whatever you feel about a city, there is not a league in the world that is turning down $250 million to buy a franchise. That number doubles up Toronto’s investment and is five times the fee paid by the Golden State Valkyries.

Sports Business Journal broke the story and has some excellent reporting on the landscape of the league’s expansion. Right now, the article states, the league is looking to push to 18 teams largely based on the idea that there are so many expansion bids willing to throw around significant money — between $200 and $250 million for now — to be able to get a slice of the WNBA pie. While, on the surface, I can understand the reticence of expansion too quickly it is important to note that there is a successful and stable league that just went through an explosive growth period of their own. Major League Soccer, while maybe not getting a slice of the casual sports fan pie in the way that they want, spent much of the last decade buoying their league’s profit margin with increasingly exorbitant expansion fees from clubs like Los Angeles FC and Inter Miami. What they got in return was a soccer specific stadium in near downtown L.A. and Lionel Messi. Not a bad trade.

The concept here is largely the same. The massive expansion fees will help finance an operation that, if invested properly like MLS did, is in dire need of upgrades and more bodies. The WNBA’s league staff relative to the NBA’s is orders of magnitude smaller and sometimes, we see the end result. Small trophies, typos on graphics, occasionally haphazard planning or less than stellar communication. Those aren’t the hallmarks of a league that doesn’t care. Typically the malice we see in this league is incompetence rooted in the fact that there are not enough people doing too many things at once. An injection of capital from expansion franchises can help alleviate that problem and so I don’t necessarily have a concern with going to 18 especially if the money clearly appears to be there. One of the important components for Cleveland is that the prospective WNBA franchise would effectively take over the Cavs current facility. While not a brand new state of the art spot, it was a significant investment that had to be up to the standards of a multi-billion dollar league and in compliance with a players union that has a lot more power than the WNBPA currently does.

My only worry is that this means we’re likely headed for a funhouse mirror version of the first iteration of the WNBA. One of the things I was really interested in when it came to this league’s expansion is how they might leverage unique markets as a way to plant the flag for women’s basketball as *the* franchise in the city. Major League Soccer followed this very strategy to great success in markets like St. Louis, Nashville and Portland. They are the summer show in those towns even with a competing baseball team in some cases. And while the WNBA’s calendar does mean that women’s basketball takes center stage in some of these NBA towns, it would mean that we’re not really going to get much geographical variety and diversity in where these next few teams might go. I understand it from a business perspective. A guy like Dan Gilbert, whose finances have already been exhaustively vetted and proven in the NBA, is the type of owner that the W is looking for. Moneyed, interested and probably really willing to invest to, if nothing else, beat Phoenix Mercury owner Mat Ishbia (look up their beef, it’s actually pretty funny). From the W’s end, if the NBA has done the financial due diligence, it makes it easier to vet owners. Which is why we’ve seen the recent owners have NBA ties, from Golden State’s Joe Lacob to Portland’s Raj Bhathal (who was a significant but not majority owner of the Sacramento Kings). Its good business but the question becomes how good for the game it is, especially with a franchise bid like Nashville right there that checks a lot of boxes and has some substantial money (just not NBA ownership affiliated) behind it.

It makes for an interesting discussion and I’m curious where it goes. But ultimately, this is a net good for the players. More roster spots, more bargaining power because of the presence of more capital and a better shot for an even better TV deal the next time through. That’s a win-win-win.

No Cap Space WBB is leveling up!

We put out a note on this earlier last week but I wanted to include it in Five Out since we typically have a lot of folks that read the column who aren’t regular subscribers.

Yes, No Cap Space WBB is leveling up with a paid subscriber tier to give you even more women’s hoops news and commentary. All of the content you’ve come to know is still free. Our mission will always be to grow the game and be the big tent that new fans and longtime diehards can all coexist under. So Watch Guides, Five Outs, Hater Guides for Season Previews, First Round WNBA Mock Drafts, Ball Up Top, etc will all stay free to all.

What the paid subscription — $10/month or $100/year — gets you is an even deeper level of access. More features and profiles that take you beyond the game itself, Behind The Story features that explore how we approach our journalism, Hater Guides for specific games and players (yes, we are working with Chauny to give everyone a full origin about how she coined the nickname ‘Slack Mamba’ for Sabrina Ionescu and why), Postgame Notebooks from our reporters on the ground and so much more. I’m particularly excited about our own

Rashard Hall

who will be expanding his WNBA draft offerings, giving paid subscribers a monthly Big Board of draft eligible players and expanding the monthly WNBA Mock Draft to include all three rounds.

The paid subscription also includes access to Substack’s chat feature, where you’ll get our insider news, rumors and tea that we may not want to publish for a wider audience just yet. You’ll also get early access to our Luxury Tax shows, be able to lob us questions for Monthly Mailbags and generally be able to find us for any questions, comments or ball talk. Within those Mailbags, I also plan on including a transparency section that tells you exactly what your paid subscription is going to and how we are investing the money into growing the game or the site through equipment upgrades, travel for game or feature coverage and more! You get a piece of the action and an ownership of your own in continuing to make this site the most comprehensive place for women’s basketball news and analysis in the game.

So hang with us and thanks to all who have already subscribed! We’ve only just begun and there’s so much more great stuff on the way!