Five Out: Lukewarm Liberty, Rolling Rookies and a Fantastic Coach of the Year Race

Is the 2025 WNBA Draft Class proving to be deeper than 2024? And who has pole position in the Coach of the Year race? There's plenty to discuss on this Monday's Five Out.

As we inch closer towards the halfway mark of the WNBA regular season, narratives are starting to take shape. A packed slate of Sunday games gave us plenty to discuss, dissect and additional agendas to monitor into this week. The Commissioner’s Cup Final is set for July 1st between the Indiana Fever and the Minnesota Lynx while international competitions are either underway or about to get started.

In short, there’s a ton of basketball and a lot of good conversations to have. So let’s get to it…

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1. The Liberty are in trouble without Jonquel Jones…

Here’s a statistic that speaks volumes while at the same time warrants more data: The New York Liberty are undefeated with Jonquel Jones in the lineup and winless without her*. There’s an argument to be made that the loss to Phoenix happened with her in the starting five but she also left the game nine minutes into the matchup.

While her numbers aren’t befitting a true top three MVP candidate at this point in the year (12.1 PPG, 9.6 RPG), it’s clear that she’s the most important player on the roster. The combination that she brings with Breanna Stewart in terms of size, length, three levels of scoring and defensive presence is massive. One thing New York also misses is her screen and roll game. It makes things so much harder for opponents when you have Jones setting a screen, then basically picking a door of roll/fade/slip based on what the defense is giving her. While Nyara Sabally can eventually grow into that role and play it effectively, Jones is an MVP caliber player now. If you’re throwing in all your chips to continue your dominance at the top of the WNBA, you need more than a good player with a top-end ceiling. You need the player that is already at that ceiling.

With Leonie Fiebich gone for Eurobasket, the Liberty need to figure out how to put the pieces together and fast. Never have they felt the loss of Kayla Thornton more than they have now. Even with Sabrina Ionescu healthy, Jones and Fiebich both allow for her to be a bit more hidden on defense while giving Ionescu options offensively in PnR’s. The good news is that Jones will be back in the lineup at some point this season and Eurobasket doesn’t take Fiebich out for the year either. But with the Minnesota Lynx continuing to surge even without Jessica Shepard — and she’s coming back soon anyway — New York feels like they’re fading a bit as Atlanta and Phoenix get closer to them in the standings.

*Quick edit: New York did defeat Chicago without Jones earlier this year and defeated Washington with her only playing five minutes.

2. Tyler had a take that’s aging beautifully…

Our own Tyler DeLuca is having a great weekend. He worked alongside Chauny at Fanatics Fest before flying back to Oklahoma City to see is Thunder win their first title and now is seeing a take him and I disagreed on in the preseason age like a fine wine.

The take? Los Angeles and Chicago made mistakes by trying to make win-now moves during a time when they didn’t need to.

At the time, I felt that it was a good move by both front offices if the belief was that their 2024 rookies were going to make leaps forward. So far, that hasn’t happened and, while the vision for the Sky and Sparks’ young cores has shown flashes of brilliance, it isn’t consistent enough that the addition of all these veterans in exchange for draft capital is worth it.

So far, both teams are a combined 7-20. The Sky have looked like an abject disaster at times while the Sparks have been just kind of there (which might be even worse in terms of league discourse). Kelsey Plum’s shooting has regressed to pre-Becky Hammon levels while the frontcourt remains a problem area until Cam Brink returns. But even now, I’m not sure she becomes the fix-all that I thought she’d be earlier in the season. Meanwhile, Chicago is trying to figure out how to turn Angel Reese into a point forward. So far, the returns have been uneven but the vision is an exciting one. The bigger concern is what exactly the plan is for Kamilla Cardoso, a coaching staff that lacks juice and a team culture that just feels kind of ‘meh’ right now.

It was a high-risk/high-reward proposition for both franchises and right now the gamble looks like it’s not paying off. What’s worse is that the gamble losing reaffirms to many fans (and potentially those in WNBA world) that the lack of seriousness ascribed to both Chicago and Los Angeles is the same as it ever was. With so many free agents on the market next year as the CBA gets set to take effect, I do wonder what it means for the 2024 stars that are currently locked into long term deals in both markets.

3. Is the 2025 draft class deeper than the 2024 class?

I feel like every week I’m bound to have a point in the column that is going to get crushed when I inevitably post it to r/WNBA. Maybe this is the one this week!

Coming into the season, I was of the mindset that the 2025 class lacked the top end generational depth of the 2024 group. We know what that crew did right off the bat. Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese rewrote the record books while Rickea Jackson and Kamilla Cardoso proved to be eventual high ceiling stars while a number of other players became regular contributors to their respective teams. While the jury is still out on whether or not Paige Bueckers has the top end ceiling Clark does — I still think Chauny’s comparison of the two to Sue Bird (Paige) and Diana Taurasi (Caitlin) is spot on and aging well here — I think I’m ready to make the argument that the 2025 class may actually end up being a bit better than the 2024 group.

It’s still early but the amount of contributors from the rookie class already outpaces the current sophomores.

The late rounders (second and third) from 2024 that are still on rosters are as follows…

Kate Martin (16.1 MPG, 5.5 PPG, 2.8 RPG)

Liz Kitley (8.6 MPG, 1.5 PPG, 1.6 RPG)

Mackenzie Holmes (End of bench rotation)

Here are the late rounders from 2025…

Anastasiia Kosu (End of bench rotation)

Maddy Westbeld (6.5 MPG, 2.0 PPG, 0.7 RPG)

Te-Hina Paopao (14 MPG, 6.9 PPG, 1.5 RPG, 1.9 APG)

Makayla Timpson (End of bench rotation)

Sania Feagin (End of bench rotation)

Lucy Olsen (7.8 MPG, 2.3 PPG, 0.9 RPG)

Rayah Marshall (6.8 MPG, 1.2 PPG, 2.7 RPG)

JJ Quinerly (6.8 MPG, 3.4 PPG, 1.1 APG)

Liatu King (10.5 MPG, 3.2 PPG, 1.9 RPG)

Kaitlyn Chen (Recently signed by Golden State)

Taylor Thierry (End of bench rotation)’

Just off straight numbers, the class already has more contributors that came from the later rounds than 2024. Beyond that, there are a couple of players — Paopao, in particular — that are immediate contributors on top end teams. Mind you, this is before we start to stack up first round vs. first round (and Aaliyah Nye in Vegas, who I’m considering a first rounder for all intents and purposes).

The good news here is that the depth simply makes the league better and gives more opportunities for college fans to carry their enthusiasm for specific players more easily into the WNBA. Additionally, it is a good reminder that while the belief is that the wave provided by Caitlin Clark is the apex of interest in the league itself, the Indiana Fever forward is actually the forerunner instead. Consider the depth of the 2025 class led by the likes of Paige, Sonia Citron, Kiki Iriafen and Dominique Malonga.

Then consider the next handful of draft classes which will bring us Lauren Betts, Flau’jae Johnson, Hannah Hidalgo, Olivia Miles, Sarah Strong, Joyce Edwards and more.

We can argue about who is the bigger superstar until the sun goes supernova but there is no doubt that the rising floor of rookie in the W is a cause for celebration. The revolution is here. And apparently it’s all televised at the same time on the same day.

4. The Coach of the Year race might be an all-time great one…

I can’t remember the last time that a WNBA Coach of the Year race felt this competitive. In past seasons, the winner has felt pretty cut and dried. Cheryl Reeve was an easy pick last season, Steph White was the year before while Becky Hammon picked up her first award in 2022.

But this season? Good luck trying to find a clear contender a quarter of the way through the year. Just look below at the cases for the top five…

• Cheryl Reeve

  • Not a single step lost from last season’s dominant run. Reeve has managed to keep everyone focused after a brutal Finals loss with Napheesa Collier taking another step forward, managing Kayla McBride’s absence to open the year, incorporating her young players more and overwhelming opponents with depth.

• Karl Smesko

  • The ATLytics movement has unlocked Rhyne Howard and Allisha Gray while being a perfect landing spot for rookie Te-Hina Paopao. The system has proven to be transferable from the A-Sun to the WNBA with Smesko proving his tactical acumen over and over in close games. Mind you, this is also happening with Brittney Griner being a clear step behind as age starts to catch up to her a bit. In the meantime, he’s turned Naz Hillmon and Paopao into indispensable bench pieces on a team that’s 10-4.

• Nate Tibbetts

  • After a year that looked completely listless, Tibbetts is leading a group of journeywomen to an 11-4 start to the year. He’s managed to figure out how to utilize Alyssa Thomas as the perfect point forward while seamlessly integrating Kahleah Copper back into the lineup. Satou Sabally is putting up first team All-WNBA and borderline MVP numbers while playing insanely pesky defense and swarming teams with three point barrages.

• Natalie Nakase

  • Nobody expected the Valkyries to look this competitive and this fun given their roster moves at the start of the year. Even with a chunk of their team off in Europe competing in international play, the Valks are still managing to win games off the strength of Nakase’s system and culture. Kayla Thornton has become an effective centerpiece while Golden State manages to find players like Chloe Bibby and Laeticia Amihere seemingly off the street and perfectly plug them into the roster. That’s the mark of a potentially great coach.

• Sydney Johnson

  • A man I will be apologizing to until the end of time, it seems. With a rookie core and a supporting cast of high level veterans, Johnson has managed to walk a tightrope of a crowded frontcourt while getting the most out of Kiki Iriafen and giving us flashes of Shakira Austin’s ceiling. The combination of Sonia Citron and Brittney Sykes has worked remarkably well and while there’s still some meat on the bone, Johnson has established a clear floor in Washington and given Mystics fans reasons to be excited again.

We’ve got plenty more time to figure out who in this group is going to take the leap or if there’s another dark horse yet to reveal themselves. But it’s clear that the coaching floor has increased in this league and we’re all better off for it.

5. The NCAA’s House Settlement has arrived. Will we see a return to ‘selective excellence’?

There’s been a lot of reporting this week with regard to the House settlement, clearing the way for direct payments to players by NCAA athletic programs. Most of the early discussion with regard to how schools will handle their budgets has been predictable: football gets almost all the money, a chunk of ticketed sports including women’s basketball get a little more while the non-revenue sports don’t get anything. It’s an unfortunate reality we’re all going to have to live with as the likelihood that Olympic sports will get lost in the shuffle (if not cut completely) is all too probable.

Maybe it’s the optimist in me but I’m not as down on the idea that House will doom women’s basketball or women’s sports writ large. For starters, there is still a chance that the NCAA is going to begin to split off some of the championship television rights that have traditionally been bundled together. Typically, football and men’s basketball championships are negotiated on their own while the rest of the events — baseball, softball, volleyball, women’s basketball etc — have been marketed as one big property that has been owned by ESPN for a long time.

If the NCAA is going to need more profit to stay afloat in this new world and coupled with the explosive ratings growth of the aforementioned four sports title events, it is entirely possible that those are broken off and put to the highest bidder. If a decision is made for women’s March Madness to be sent to open market then that would involve another potential financial windfall for the sport and more of a need to invest in it properly.

It also opens up a potential return of a 1970’s era philosophy of ‘selective excellence’. For those unfamiliar with the term, it was coined by Old Dominion athletic director Jim Jarrett who believed that investing in a sport where your school could be nationally competitive could be more valuable then throwing money into a football program that won’t be relevant. It resulted in ODU field hockey and women’s basketball becoming two of the most decorated programs in their respective sports. At Louisiana Tech, former president F. Jay Taylor took a similar approach which turned the Lady Techsters into a household name that still persists today.

What is to stop another program, or one without a football program at all, from deciding that the prudent investment is actually in women’s basketball or one of the other ticketed sports. As ratings and attendance rises in those specific areas, why wouldn’t a Big East program or mid-major school with a middling football program give some consideration to throwing their weight behind women’s hoops to capitalize on the wave that is still to come?

I understand the mechanism of capitalism and the current business practice of attacking saturated points because that’s where the money is. But one thing late stage capitalism requires — as we’re seeing in the WNBA now — is places where exponential growth is still possible when other revenue streams are plateauing. If I’m a school, booster or investor, I am looking at women’s basketball as a place to get the most bang for my buck in a post House world. Time will prove how good or bad that take turns out to be.