Five Out: In Defense of WNBA Coaches, New Expansion teams and who can catch Minnesota?

The WNBA dropped a bomb this morning that three new expansion franchises would be joining the league in the coming years plus a whole lot more in the column...

Sometimes, ladies and gentlemen, it pays to procrastinate. Usually I try and write this column late Sunday night and schedule for an early morning Monday release but this week I got caught up in a new episode of Love Island USA and said “you know what, I’ll write it in the morning”.

Thank goodness I did.

This Monday, the WNBA announced three new expansion franchises coming online in the next five years in Cleveland, Detroit and Philadelphia. We’ll dive a bit more into the why and how in the first point. But it’s a huge piece of news and one that continues to signal a rapid growth happening with the WNBA writ large.

Because there’s so much broader discussion that went on this week, we’ll have a couple hoop related points and some more meta conversations in this column. It may not be universally popular but that’s the kind of the whole point.

Away we go!

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1. The WNBA is adding three new cities. Let’s discuss how, why and what it all means…

So that’s the big news this morning. Cleveland and Detroit are returning to the WNBA while Philadelphia is getting a franchise long desired by women’s basketball fans. The rumored expansion fees for all is $250 million and is another signal of long term financial viability for the W. Some fans may be worried that growing too fast too soon can overextend the league and lead to contractions like we saw in the early 2000’s. But unlike prior iterations of this league or others like it, the money coming in is so substantial that it keeps the WNBA buoyed while franchise valuations continue to skyrocket. Earlier this past week, the Golden State Valkyries were estimated to be worth $500 million making them the most valuable women’s sports franchise in the country.

There was a hope that non-NBA cities like Austin or Nashville had a shot to be in the mix. Here’s what I can tell you…

It wasn’t for a lack of trying. I’ve been told that Austin had one of the largest proposed cap tables of any expansion candidate while Nashville had one of the most substantial built-in fanbases among applicants. Jacksonville was a longer shot but had the former WNBA commissioner and a smart plan to remain competitive. But the reality is that this wave of expansion is about the NBA Board of Governors. The rumors bubbling under the surface of all of this was that many NBA owners felt owed due to their financial support of the WNBA during its hardest periods. That allowed them to somewhat skip the line (provided they had a good plan for expansion) since their financials had already been vetted by the partner league. In a contest where cities won by the smallest of margins, that connectivity with the NBA and the politicking of partners leagues was important.

That’s not to say the aforementioned three cities didn’t deserve a shot to have a franchise. Philadelphia is a necessary link New York and DC, is a hot bed of talent and is a city known for an…energized…fanbase. Cleveland and Detroit have a WNBA history to revive and I think, now more than ever, it’s important to lean into what came before and bridge generations of fans together. The Shock are a historically significant franchise to the league and the Rockers have some legends that they can bring back in the opening season to help carry the torch into the future.

I’m fascinated by what it means for roster building, expansion drafts and future free agency as well as how this works with regards to conference splits. These are technically three east coast teams and there aren’t a lot of midwestern franchises to push over. When we reach 18, we’ll likely be looking at 10 in the eastern conference and 8 in the west. Do you push Chicago and Indiana over? It’ll be fascinating to see.

2. We need to discuss the Minnesota Lynx as a potentially historically dominant team.

On the heels of a 14-2 start with a complete roster and one of the best coaches in league history, it may be time to start monitoring the Lynx as a top five regular season team in WNBA history. Some of their competition includes the 2001 L.A. Sparks (28-4 regular season), the 2014 Phoenix Mercury (29-5 regular season), and the 2023 Las Vegas Aces (34-6 regular season).

I’ve used the term malicious competence and it’s rung true basically every game Minnesota has played this season. While we’re still waiting for their true gauntlet from July 25 - August 28, in which they play New York four times along with Atlanta, Las Vegas, Seattle and Indiana twice apiece, it’s clear that the Lynx are a dominant force. No one has beaten them this year when they’re fully healthy. The Storm defeated Minnesota when Jessica Shepard was out of the lineup while the Mystics stole a win with Napheesa Collier watching from the sideline.

What makes them incredible (and notably different from other aforementioned greats) is that they don’t necessarily have a transcendent starting five the way other past teams have. The Aces, for example, had a legitimate Olympic starting five before Candace Parker got hurt. But the depth the Lynx possess is legitimately overwhelming. In Sunday’s game we finally got to see glimpses of Minnesota’s rookie draft pick, Russian forward Anastasiia Kosu and the vision is absolutely there.

As we prepare for multiple expansion drafts in the coming years, I’d urge everyone to enjoy what we’re watching in Minnesota this year because we truly might not see a team this deep for a while once rosters start to be spread out across five more teams in the next five years.

3. Paige Bueckers is an All-Star and I can’t believe how many ballots she’s being left off of.

I can’t tell you how many ballots I’ve seen that have omitted Paige Bueckers from the All-Star game this year and I just don’t get it. Most ballots include four backcourt players and six frontcourt players and, of the many I’ve seen, Bueckers is usually omitted in favor of either Skylar Diggins or Sabrina Ionescu.

Almost all ballots include Caitlin Clark and Allisha Gray which I think is fair. In spite of her shooting struggles and injuries, Clark is still one of (if not the) best guards in the WNBA and is a guaranteed All-Star in any circumstance. Allisha Gray has had a wonderful season so far and is still in the MVP conversation as far as I’m concerned. Napheesa Collier is the easy frontrunner right now but Gray is a top 3/top 5 vote from me at least.

Which leaves us between Diggins, Ionescu and Bueckers. Let’s start with a blind sampling…

Player A: 18.9 PPG, 2.2 RPG, 6.1 APG, 1.2 SPG, 46.3% FG, 41.8% 3PT

Player B: 18.6 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 5.1 APG, 1.5 SPG, 40.1% FG, 32.8% 3PT

Player C: 18.4 PPG, 4.4 RPG, 5.8 APG, 1.8 SPG, 46.1% FG, 33.3% 3PT

It’s a tough choice, undoubtedly, if you’re looking at raw numbers. Diggins is player A and has shot the best of the three while distributing a little more per game. Bueckers leads the group in rebounds and steals and is on Diggins’ shooting pace. Ionescu, on the other hand, doesn’t lead any of the three in any of the main categories. It pains me to say it as No Cap Space’s resident Sabrina defender but she hasn’t exactly stepped up to the plate in the wake of Jonquel Jones’ injury with regard to consistent output. The reality is she’s a streaky shooter who has raised her floor substantially but still remains a bit removed from the “face of the league” she was anointed as when she entered the W.

If there’s an odd one out there, I think it’s her. Bueckers may have missed some games here and there but that argument seemingly hasn’t been an issue for having Clark on ballots. While she’s moved a bit quieter and her team has been a disaster for a large chunk of this season — although it should be noted the Wings are 4-2 in their last 6 games — Paige has proven that she is ready for this league and competing at a high level off the bat. The fan vote will get her in the All-Star game but the media voting is what makes me uneasy. Ultimately, she’s in the discussion for second team All-WNBA right now and I wonder if she’ll actually get that type of push if her play continues apace.

4. The environment for WNBA coaches is in danger becoming unsustainable…

Over the weekend, I was pretty dismayed to see the amount of criticism for Rachid Meziane, the now embattled coach of the Connecticut Sun. A former player from Villeneuve D’Asq, Kelsey Bone, got on social media to call him the worst coach she’d ever played for while saying his lack of assertiveness is what prompted the statement. I found this to be odd considering Bone and Meziane crossed each others paths for one season in which Villeneuve won the French top league and he was named LFB Coach of the Year. Doesn’t sound too bad to me?

While the critique may be legitimate, the hyperbole around how we’re talking about WNBA coaches has gotten out of hand. From fans to ownership to mainstream press, the immediacy of results is creating a dynamic that may be unsustainable and may make WNBA head coaching jobs unattractive. To me, it seemed to have started in 2022 when Becky Hammon joined the Las Vegas Aces. With a roster already built to contend, Hammon transformed the offense and led the franchise to back-to-back titles. Suddenly, it started to create a notion that the right coach could just come in and change everything. Now, we’re seeing one year turnovers and demands that coaches go less than a quarter of the way into the year.

I try to be careful on podcasts and columns when it comes to language around coaches and firings mid-season. Usually I try to say “this dynamic has to be worked out and fast” but it’s rare that I feel a coach should be gone after a single season. Teresa Weatherspoon didn’t deserve that and none of the coaches struggling this year do either. Tyler Marsh, Chris Koclanes and Rachid Meziane all have below contender level rosters for one reason or another. In the Sky’s case, they built around Angel Reese the wrong way as we’re seeing now. The point forward experiment is working and if I’m Jeff Pagliocca, I’m looking at Alyssa Thomas-led teams for inspiration in the next free agency period instead of treating Reese as a Yolanda Griffith type. The Wings just seemed to have a bad mix of personalities but something has clearly been discussed and fixed in the locker room. As for the Sun, I don’t care if Cheryl Reeve is coaching this team, it’s a legitimately bad roster. Full stop.

“But what about Natalie Nakase, Andrew?”, you yell through your screen.

It’s evident now Nakase is an outlier and uniquely gifted coach who is also benefitting from a front office that might legitimately be one of the best scouting departments in the league. The fact of the matter is that rebuilds take time and anyone trying to microwave one (looking at you, Indiana and Los Angeles) is a risky proposition as well unless you’re bringing in bonafide MVP’s. And even then (looking at you, New York), it may take a year or two to fully gel. So give these guys time. It might stink for a year and if it doesn’t look good in year two, we can revisit. But if the expectation is to turn this into European soccer where great coaches have one year shelf lives, you’ll be surprised how fast the brain drain gets in the WNBA.

5. I’m worried the Indiana Fever may be becoming distracted…

I may have sprung this take on the pod a bit too early last week but it feels like it aged well in the time since. Last year, I wrote and talked about how teams like Chicago and Las Vegas were getting distracted by online chatter and it was clearly creating an issue with what was happening on the floor.

The word coming out of the Sky organization when Chennedy Carter was let go was that the constant focus on things other than basketball were taking their toll on the locker room. There was no singular crash out or event that was the straw that broke the camel’s back. It just, from my understanding, was an accumulation of things that got in the way of winning.

I’m worried that the Indiana Fever are falling into a similar trap this year.

It’s understandable why the tone and tenor of the organization changed this year. They realized what they had in Caitlin Clark and Aliyah Boston. They got a rising coach in Stephanie White and loaded up with talented veterans who knew what it took to win titles. Shoot, the Fever even brought in an enforcer for Caitlin in the form of Sophie Cunningham. The ‘Now You Know’ social media campaign chafed many an opposing fan while it seemed like a triumph for Indiana and CC fans. After a year of doing nothing but getting kicked around in the press and on the floor, it felt like the organization was taking back some of its own power and narrative.

But what happens when you lean too hard into that concept and inadvertently turn yourself into something you may not want to be?

The discussion all of last year with Indiana was staying above the fray, disavowing the bad faith elements of the fanbase (which Caitlin did many times and still doesn’t get enough credit for doing) and keeping the focus on the floor. In the last two weeks, it feels like all that has been thrown out the window in favor of making a star out of a rotation player who has been awful on the court for the last few games.

There was always this concern with Sophie Cunningham. Unlike Clark, she is all too happy to court the Outkick’s and Barstool’s of the world. I don’t agree or care much for her personal politics but I’m also not stupid enough to believe that players in this league are a monolith. How she votes or the beliefs she holds aren’t going to alter her workplace by virtue of her just being there.

It can, however, change dynamics when her celebrity becomes outsized because of her willingness to engage in the culture wars currently plaguing the league. Her desire to be in front of the camera, turning full wrestling heel with phrases like “no one likes us” or “we’re circled on everybody’s calendar” is writing checks that her superstar guard then has to cash.

Don’t believe me? Here’s a subline from an Outkick story posted June 28th. I’m not linking it because fuck giving those chuds free views and money.

“Move Over Caitlin and Angel. It’s Sophie’s world now, and we’re just living in it.”

If you’re a Fever fan, that should scare the living shit out of you. I’ve long said Caitlin Clark’s problem is that she’s become an avatar for grievance on both ends of the spectrum. But what set Caitlin apart was her desire to keep things focused on the basketball and not be willing to step into that. The issue is now you have a teammate that sees dollar signs and celebrity status by doing it and is all too willing to drag you into it with her (wearing the tres leches shirt, for example).

Was that the reason for DeWanna Bonner leaving? I’m not sure. But the fact that it’s a plausibility is a concern. Doubly concerning is the fact that Christine Brennan is still running around the team facility and may actually have legit sources who share her parasocial worldview interested in feeding her information.

Distractions can sink great basketball teams, even those with generationally great players on them. I don’t know how you solve this problem but if the issue with the Sky last year was that they were becoming too terminally online and willing to entertain the stuff that got in the way of basketball, the Fever are being dragged down a path of potentially ending up the same way.