Five Out: A Case For (And a Case Against) the Chicago Sky Trade for Ariel Atkins, Compelling Conference Races and Battle of LA Pt. 2

The column has immediate reactions to the Chicago Sky's trade for Ariel Atkins and lays out the coming March Madness scenarios at the mid and high-major level. A column for the week of Feb. 24, 2025.

And here I sat on Sunday night, feeling like I wouldn’t have enough content to fill a Five Out. Shout out to Chicago Sky GM Jeff Pagliocca who heard my clarion call asking for some more storylines to write about to start the week. Their trade, dealing the third overall pick of the 2025 WNBA Draft (as well as a first round pick swap in 2027) to the Washington Mystics for Ariel Atkins, has a lot of different dimensions and you can talk yourself into it as easily as you can talk yourself out of it.

Beyond that, we’ve had a fun little week of Unrivaled and the Ball-Knowers Watch Guide has provided you some under the radar great games (shoutout Ball State vs. Toledo and loyal reader Jordy McKever). We’ve got a loaded week on No Cap Space WBB, from our first monthly mailbag for paid subscribers, new features, a Legendarium installment and one huge game on Saturday to prepare for.

So before we jump in head first, let’s talk about the week that was…

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The case for the Ariel Atkins trade

Let’s start with the positives here first. The trade is a clear signal that Chicago is ready to maximize Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso’s window now. For those wondering if both of these players are signing off on this, we’ve been told at No Cap Space WBB that the desire among the rookies is to make winning now a priority. It’s important to note that neither Reese nor Cardoso are used to losing in college and are extremely competitive individuals. When you line up that desire and the moves, it seems pretty clear that Jeff Pagliocca has a mandate as well as a goal. He wants to abide by his young star players wishes and also create the perception that the franchise takes what their stars say seriously.

Keep in mind that the knock on the Sky has always been retention of their superstar players and them feeling valued and listened to within the organization. To that end, making this trade is an indicator to Chicago’s frontcourt — and others around the league — that they take winning seriously.

As for a basketball fit, it makes plenty of sense. Atkins is still in a moderately prime age (she’s 28), has a WNBA championship ring, two all-star nods and has been a five-time WNBA All-Defense selection (1 1st-Team, 4 2nd-Team). If the goal was to get an elite two-way guard in the draft then you’d be hard pressed to find someone that’s giving you that floor immediately. At her best, she’s a primary defender that you can throw on some of the best guards in the league and is able to hit some major shots on the other end. A starting five of Courtney Vandersloot, Atkins, Rebecca Allen, Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso is pretty good. Sure, you are going to need a point guard of the future but if you’re wanting to be a playoff team then Atkins is the type of player that can get you over the hump.

Additionally, draft strategy has to come into play here. There seems to be a lot of questions, in college and pro circles, about which players will even declare for the WNBA Draft. I initially thought Paige Bueckers might be one but watching UConn’s success has made me feel like she’s done after this year. But what if, say, Olivia Miles decides to stay another year? Then Sonia Citron, the two way star at Notre Dame that could slot in well in Chicago, might go number two in the draft to Seattle. Then what do you do if you’re the Sky? It just feels like for the roster construction they have, the pick is riskier than we initially thought. Instead of risk, you get a steady vet. It might not net the highest ceiling but it does solidify your floor which is what you star rookies seem to want.

The case against the Ariel Atkins trade

To the point on Sonia Citron, her pro-comp is Atkins. Steady, solid, two-way guard that can be an elite contributor in this league and is the exact type of calming presence that Chicago could use in the backcourt. You’d have her on what will eventually be an under-market-rate rookie deal that locks in your three core players for awhile and giving you max flexibility to attack 2026 free agency.

When you look at how some of the top teams are building in this league and others, the winning strategy seems to be loading up on young stars that give you the ability to chase veterans with extra cap space. Unless you believe Angel Reese and Kamilla Cardoso can get it done on their own, it seems odd that you don’t take advantage of another high-ceiling rookie to round out a core of three.

I can understand Pagliocca’s desire to want to try and build this roster into an early contender but it feels too early to punt on your future to try and chase perception for 2026 free agents. Beyond that, it feels like changing attitudes about your franchise is a years-long process. It’s a massive gamble to assume that loading up on 2025 means that you’ll be able to pick up free agents — and big names at that — one year later.

It feels like there’s a couple of things happening in the WNBA. First, everyone is dashing to try and compete in 2025 so they are able to sell everyone on something in 2026. But you know what matters more than winning games? Facilities. It’s shown to be a bigger selling point than anything else in the league so far. Chicago could break ground on that shiny new building of theirs and it would sell people as much as the records would. Now to the second, it feels (at least to me) like franchises see a wave of new fans and enthusiasm in the league and want a piece. Obviously many fans came in because of (or in spite of) Caitlin Clark and Angel Reese, so it makes sense that teams are loading up to get new eyeballs by being good and watchable. And maybe the business sense is clouding some of the competitive judgement. Only time will tell!

Are there any mid-majors that deserve multiple bids this year?

We’re in the part of the season where bracketology is starting to feel a little more real than theoretical. The data points are there, we know who is good and who isn’t.

According to ESPN’s Charlie Creme, there aren’t a ton of multi-bid mid-majors this year. That’s to be expected given the amount of competition in the new ‘Power 4’ and how many even middle tier teams could sneak in by virtue of playing in those leagues. I understand the argument and I don’t.
Take Iowa State, Washington, Virginia Tech, Arizona, Colorado and Stanford. All of those teams are either Last Four In, First Four Out or Next Four Out. Will they really make the Tournament better? Do they have enough high level wins that makes me believe they can beat a better team?

On the other end of the equation, we have teams like Princeton, St. Joe’s, South Florida and George Mason sitting in the same place. St. Joe’s and GMU both have close losses to Top 25ish teams in Utah and Maryland. Princeton has wins over a couple high-majors and mid-major contenders. Harvard beat Indiana early in the year and South Florida beat Duke.

We have this conversation every year but I’m worried about the precedent that this selection will have on future seasons post-realignment. If you stack the deck with high-major teams that really haven’t been more than mid this year then what kind of path is required for them? Mid-majors want to play high-major teams. The issue is high-majors wanting to play. I think about Fairfield, our favorite story and staff from the MAAC and how hard they had to go this offseason just to get Arkansas and Oklahoma State on the schedule. They shouldn’t have to worry about winning the MAAC Tournament just to make it in.

So with that in mind, who are the mid-majors that should have two bids?

The A-10 probably deserves three, if we’re being honest. Richmond, George Mason and St. Joe’s are all competitive enough to be First Four teams and I’d take them over an Iowa State or Washington, for instance.

The Big Sky, quietly, has two teams that have cases in Montana State (25-2, 15-0) and Northern Arizona (23-6, 14-2). The Bobcats are gonna make it based on the strength of their conference play and body of work. The Lumberjacks have wins over Arizona, Colorado State and James Madison. They aren’t even on the radar but absolutely should be.

The Ivy League is also a three bid league between Columbia, Princeton and Harvard. This has been happening for years where they get disrespected come Selection Sunday but they absolutely should be involved regardless of how the end of the schedule shakes out.

Speaking of Ivy League teams, Quinnipiac has wins over both Harvard and Princeton as well as a win over Southland champion Southeast Louisiana. Add in Fairfield and the MAAC is a legit two-bid league and I’m tired of us talking like it’s not.

My point here is that there are multiple conferences that should be in the mix. If anything, it’s a lack of imagination and a fixation on metrics. I’m talking ball. It’s why I’m pushing the Missouri Valley Conference games as must-watches down the stretch. Everyone deserves to eat and that’s what March is all about.

Who has the most compelling conference race?

We have some easy answers here but there’s also some great under-the-radar races as well.

The SEC battle between Texas and South Carolina will come down to the wire. The likelihood of a coin flip deciding the regular season title is legitimately in play and I would pay a king’s ransom to have that televised live on SEC Network. It feels like we’re basically going to get there. The Gamecocks have Ole Miss and Kentucky left on the schedule but those feel like wins. The Rebs could mess around and frustrate SC defensively but I don’t expect they’ll have much of an issue with the Wildcats. The Longhorns have a much easier road with Georgia, Mississippi State and Florida. The biggest intrigue will be what it looks like when, or if, we get a rubber match in the SEC Tournament.

Among mid-majors, we have some other de factor regular season conference championships. Tennessee Tech and Lindenwood are tied for first and meet in a March 2nd finale. Same scenario exists in the Horizon League, where Green Bay and Purdue Fort Wayne break a tie on March 1st.

The Big 12 has the same situation and the narratives are everywhere in this one.

If TCU and Baylor win one more game each then March 2nd will be a title game battle. The Frogs have an easier chance of that than the Bears, having Houston instead of a road trip to Kansas State. Nicki Collen stepped into huge shoes after Kim Mulkey left for LSU and it’s felt for the last couple years that she’s been good but not great. This team, which seemed nearly dead in November from a narrative perspective, is on the precipice of a Big 12 title and a team that can probably make it to the second weekend.

TCU, on the other hand, just set a program record for wins in Mark Campbell’s second season at the helm. Hailey Van Lith has been a revelation and once again, makes me wonder what would’ve happened if she had committed to Oregon instead of Louisville out of high school. It should be a grand coronation of a coach and his staff that have revived the careers of players and immediately built a program up from being unremarkable to being nationally competitive. But there’s a damper, as we have to also acknowledge the Sedona Prince thing. The Washington Post story detailing abuse allegations — including one of sexual assault in 2019 — came and went and Prince continued to play an integral role on this TCU team. When these types of stories come up, I think back to Brenda Tracy’s belief regarding athletes that find themselves in these situations.

Playing high level athletics (and making money on it) is a privilege, not a right. You’re not being ‘cancelled’ if you allegedly engage in the type of behavior Prince is accused of. You can still get a regular job, do normal things and exist within society. You just don’t get (or deserve) the privilege being an elite athlete affords you. Prince helps TCU win, that much is clear. But at what cost?

Battle of L.A. Part 2 is the unofficial kickoff to March Madness.

Now to the Big Ten…

If UCLA and USC manage to go out and win their last couple games, we have a title game in Pauley Pavilion on March 1st.

This, to me, is the unofficial kickoff to March Madness and probably the biggest game from a market and brand perspective we’ve got this year. Yes, UConn vs. South Carolina, UConn vs. Tennessee, South Carolina vs. LSU and Notre Dame vs. USC. I hear all of those games and don’t want to understate their importance to the season. But at this point in the year, with what’s on the line, the rivalry, the players involved and the implications for both coaches? This feels like the Game of the Year.

On some level, I think we in media missed the mark in trying to position and sell this game from the minute UCLA beat South Carolina. I can understand the reticence given each squad has had some hiccups that made you question if they were gonna be 1 and 2 in the Big Ten come March. But everything this week in the national press should be wall-to-wall on these two programs. Los Angeles loves stars, it loves prestige and it loves the ability to tell everyone how important it is that something is happening within their city limits.

In this case, they aren’t entirely wrong. This is a Final Four tier matchup during the regular season with real championship stakes in a non-neutral venue where both fanbases have the ability to travel to the arena. Factor in JuJu Watkins’ virtuoso performance the last time these two teams met and that Lauren Betts is going to be back in this game after sitting one with an injury.

On the coaching end, Lindsay Gottlieb and Cori Close have taken their share of critique and criticism over the last season and multiple years. One thing I’ve heard from multiple coaches around the country is ‘if there were ever a year for Cori to do, it’s with this UCLA roster’. Gottlieb, on the other hand, has made a Final Four in her coaching career with Cal but managing this USC team has been a totally different beast. Trust me when I say, her job this year has been a lot harder than it appears to be on the surface. Another win would be a legacy play in a year where USC is trying to capture the magic of the Women of Troy of old.

It’s what we love about March and one of those games that can, again, build generational fans of the game. Plus, it isn’t buried on a streaming service. I expect monster ratings for this one on FOX, even if it’s late on the east coast. From the second that ball tips, we are in March Madness even if the brackets aren’t set yet.